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April 15 16 Obs Thread


wxeyeNH
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Yo Mod power - can you del that other obs thread .. my bad!  Didn't know this one was fired up when I started that - thx

"

This is a good case study on the topic of marginality and the excruciating difficulty there is in deterministic weather forecasting when at or < single degree C through critical vertical sounding structures will parlay vastly different sensible impacts.

This might be a fun now-cast ride, because even with the ( recently debatable...) higher confidence Euro model only being 24 and 30 hours away, it's subtle movement variations across the last three cycles have meant < 1" to 15" impliations in Metrowest of Boston, and add or subtract as needed in how those runs might effect QPF and ptypes elsewhere.  

Agree with WIll that the locked confidence ( 70-80% being that lock numbers, if you will ..) probably Kevin to Hubb' up through EEN and the lower Greens over to the Whites, with perhaps a couple stripes near the river valleys out that way with temperature and local studies combining to shadow less.   11+ and now casting option for more...  guessing 600 foot is where the stack efficiency gets better out that way. As for Willamantic CT to BED ... 20 miles either side... I'm not frankly sure how else to call that zone other than to average between Mt Watchpoopy and the Bourne Bridge ...and let the chips fall where they may.  

Maybe some sort of lockable consensus will materialize here in the next couple cycles, but I almost suspect this giga-motions right through the ordeal due it the whole structure sort of 'floating' at mid levels as opposed to being very well anchored to surface fronts/inflection points.

Just wanna to take a moment to reflect that this mid April signal has been there for two weeks or more ... I personally let the subject go - because frankly...I hate and despise having it happen by this late in the spring. But, you now... lol - it's April. It's New England, and as they say in "Animal House,"  "Thank you, sir - may I please have another"   j/k, but it's interesting that despite all journeys since this signal first popped in the American telecon, here we are after all.  wow -

Presently 44 in Ayer - dropping nicely... Down 8 in the last 6 hours...   T-minus 4.5 deg before cat-paws commence

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually now 42.  Wants to drop it seems.  I can swear some rain particles already looking fat and some starring of them upon the wind shield but that's probably just me dorkin' out

Haha love it,  I swear I see starring on my windshield even when it’s 60 degrees out sometimes. My weenie brain plays tricks on me. 

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