Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

April 15-16 interior snow threat


ORH_wxman
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah exactly Steve. That’s a good illustration of what I was saying. Will losing every tree in his yard.

That does worry me a bit. Getting closer where at 515 feet in NE CT might be an issue. Just up my hill at 750 and Jerimoth Hill in RI would get smoked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Was gonna say, don't even go there...! That there is hallowed ground haha

Definite resemblance with some features, but 1997 had significantly sharper digging trough, surface deepening, longer duration...

3/31 9z:

...

4/1:

H5:

...

H8:

...

Sfc:

 

Just getting caught up here this morning...

ah yeeeeah, they all do though?   They do, in simplest sense of it.  Heights, more or less higher over the west over N/A... is counter-balanced with descent in that regard back east... = coastal storm.  At a very orbital perspective we could say all events resemble one another.  

But as I said in the original suggestion - "in situ to the storm"   ... I wasn't comparing the total synopsis.  That literally means NOT included all the stuff you are comparing, but just the storm (centric) itself.  Just to be clear..  There's value in comparing to 1997 for other reasons.

As far the whole scope and scale, I don't see a huge comparison to the 1997 in the 00z NAM - this was always just discussing that model.  That event had better defined R-wave pattern with a coherent +PNAP footprint from west coast to east coast.  That means amped Rocky's ridge, giving total wave-space constructive interference, ...which then helps to really deepen and slow that event ... etc..etc. 

This is more of a nebular pattern - much more of a just being in the right time and place wrt a typical "bowling season" event. 

What I had in mind,  storm-centric comparisons:  Both did and could ( respectively ) result in slow movement, position ...capture and dynamic height fall behaviors, lending to well -established CCB being more so colder profiled and "perhaps" QPF prolific.   Those specific/ discrete elements remind me of 1997.

Overall and including other guidance:  Much of that is observable in the others too...I mean they don't very 'that' much. The GFS looks very NAM-like...etc..  This may also be a weaker version of 1997 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I won't be going to S Vt on this one.  Not buying the big totals by 495 in Mass but also was only traveling out there for the 20" potential that looked great.  Seems that may be knocked down a bit (still a very good storm out there ) but no quite worth my travel

Dublin, NH.  Or better still, the old Temple Mountain ski area at 1475' (the parking lot), four miles east of Peterborough.  Both look to be in the 20" area on the Euro clown map.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. My worry is actually we get the initial band of precip around 00z to 09z late Thursday/early Friday and then it shuts off because the main stuff is offshore and then it backs in from the east but it does so up north because it whiffs us with the wide turn

The initial dryslot is going to punch in from the southwest and then it will try and stall as the precip starts moving in from the east with the upper low closing off south of us. But if that happens too late, then you miss out on the goodies. That’s why I was telling Kevin yesterday that I was worried about slotting down in CT and not wanting to trade too much latitude. 

 

The other plausible result of the 'hook and ladder' is that doing so at this time of year will do so while rad and ground confirmation are attenuating rapidly..  The whole structure needs to get a strong thermodynamic feed-back from deepening cyclogen total physics space, such that the storm maximizes not so much prior to completing the west "backing in," but still doing so while - if it bonks early due to lax gradients in key physics ( you know this...) it backs in as an empty dump truck ..heh.   You get my meaning..

I've seen countless -NAO pinned lows gets slung back west and they come light cold showers... I really like your previous idea better for elongating the low's overriding jet forcing, such that the QPF producing mechanics et al are more like slow moving steady fire-hosing - ... I mean what you described above, that type of storm 'hook and ladder' typically evolves from more of a nucleated morphology aloft ... storm gets snagged and it's like a planet getting too close to a black hole and it gets sucked in - ... But the total baroclinice space is more charged (winter), so the storm's getting feed back as gets drawn in and we have yellow bands arcing onto the coast from SE to NW... blah blah. 

This has to be more of the band moves into the area, then gradually turns E and hoses while the column cools. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Moving there next fall, so get ready for the ORH curse to begin. 

Just make sure you move into those areas I highlighted for you on the north and west sides of the city. There can sometimes be a big difference between them and the south or southeast side at lower elevation. Although since you are moving from near Philly, it will all seem a lot snowier regardless.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...