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April 15-16 interior snow threat


ORH_wxman
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan’s go to HREF shows it nicely . 4-8 TOL county spine up into ORH

i2Z7TqB.png

Seems like Meso's have been leading the way with the LP swinging more eastward before the North turn, My guess is that 0z SPC HREF above continues to trend in that direction when 12z is out.

My BTV WRF already took the low a hair Se of Ack on 0z run approach. Rap did the same. Something is uppp

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems like Meso's have been leading the way with the LP swinging more eastward before the North turn, My guess is that 0z SPC HREF above continues to trend in that direction when 12z is out.

My BTV WRF already took the low a hair Se of Ack on 0z run approach. Rap did the same. Something is uppp

Yeah it will. It will lessen it a bit in CT and maybe Berks and throw that NE.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

FxWx

 

Not that it's correct but i see two meso's that take the 7H low from SW Ct Over toward Islip Long Island then over to Cape cod...albeit it looks weaker in Mid levels till the cape.. as capture is later. I think that is the trade off.  On the 6z nam the 7H low begins to strengthen Over Ack or actually a hair S as it just sort of sits there Friday

I would like to see the Nam move back a shade West at 12z and other models move toward that .

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If Stoneham gets 20”, does George win an award?

I mean I'm buying what the meso's are selling as far as the evolution of this system. It's just to what degree the later capture plays out. 

Now it's just a matter of does the Nam stop trending toward Georges bank with the CCB.  The initial stuff in the first punch overnite is rain for 90% no matter what. Cept for S VT, High elevation berks and Monads and i wonder if N Orh county will see much before dawn except Weenie Ridge in Princeton and maybe Whineminster at near 1300'.   Not sure if 1K will cut it for accums overnite before any CCB action Friday. 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean I'm buying what the meso's are selling as far as the evolution of this system. It's just to what degree the later capture plays out. 

Now it's just a matter of does the Nam stop trending toward Georges bank with the CCB.  The initial stuff in the first punch overnite is rain for 90% no matter what. Cept for S VT, High elevation berks and Monads and i wonder if N Orh county will see much before dawn except Weenie Ridge in Princeton and maybe Whineminster at near 1300'.   Not sure if 1K will cut it for accums overnite before any CCB action Friday. 

NAM was great. Something like gfs or euro would slot a bit as the best moisture pivots north. 

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