CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I’ve mentioned this before but the bulk of April 28-29, 1987 was between noon and 6pm. Peak heating time. ORH still had 17” and like 8-12” all through BOS suburbs. Oh I know. S+ will stick. Just easier to accumulate overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: If Brett had 8”+ and I had slush, I may burn down his house. I’ll wave into his ring cam as I douse his garage door with gasoline. If he had 8"+, he'd measure 12". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh I know. S+ will stick. Just easier to accumulate overall. Yeah no doubt. If that same storm happened 12 hours difference, it prob dumps 20-30% more snow due to better ratios. But it’s still pound town even during the day on a NAM setup. And 1987 shows that when you get the omega, it doesn’t matter that much when it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’ve mentioned this before but the bulk of April 28-29, 1987 was between noon and 6pm. Peak heating time. ORH still had 17” and like 8-12” all through BOS suburbs. NAM scores the late season win? It's been steady as she goes for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Yeah no. This thing would completely overwhelm any of those kinds of factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Didn’t think I’d even be considering snow on the ground disrupting my Saturday AM tee time. WTF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah no. This thing would completely overwhelm any of those kinds of factors October 2011 on that NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: NAM scores the late season win? It's been steady as she goes for a few days. Good post imho We touched on that facet earlier - the eerily stalwart behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Okay, the illness is piqued.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Holy cow just looked at 0z 12k/3k's... like Gronk coming out of season retirement for one more spike. That would even at least whiten Boston metro area. NAM has been pretty consistent with digging that shortwave decently southeast of others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: October 2011 on that NAM run. Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If Brett had 8”+ and I had slush, I may burn down his house. I’ll wave into his ring cam as I douse his garage door with gasoline. Lmao.... you can have it. I have a tee time on Saturday morning.... I want to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: NAM scores the late season win? It's been steady as she goes for a few days. NAM has actually had a pretty decent winter compared to how brutal the other models have performed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: October 2011 on that NAM run. Yikes.....for reals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM Georgie said that this morning, and Somebody said this morning that 4/97 was a completely different set up? So Who knows?? NAM hasn’t backed down.... definitely making it tougher to discount it each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Time frame is Saturday morning into afternoon? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Georgie said that this morning, and Somebody said this morning that 4/97 was a completely different set up? So Who knows?? NAM hasn’t backed down.... definitely making it tougher to discount it each run. They may have been referring to the leading whole synopsis across the continent included - I mean the cyclone alone ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: October 2011 on that NAM run. About 18" shy for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 We’ve got leaf blooms starting but not the leaf out we dealt with in October 2011.....still....the blooms will collect so we’ll see....Eversource get ready lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Time frame is Saturday morning into afternoon? For what ...a nooner ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 RGEM didn’t move too much. It tickled SE but not enough for a big dog solution over most of SNE. It is still an impressive solution for ORH county up into S VT and Monads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM didn’t move too much. It tickled SE but not enough for a big dog solution over most of SNE. It is still an impressive solution for ORH county up into S VT and Monads. RT 2 and N needs to watch. Higher elevations obviously game on but Greenfield, Brattleboro, Keene areas could have a nice late season snow (1-3"). HubbDave will have downplayed himself to a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM Was gonna say, don't even go there...! That there is hallowed ground haha Definite resemblance with some features, but 1997 had significantly sharper digging trough, surface deepening, longer duration... 3/31 9z: 4/1: H5: H8: Sfc: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Harv basically had something very similar to my map, but strongly hedged that it may need to be upped tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: RT 2 and N needs to watch. Higher elevations obviously game on but Greenfield, Brattleboro, Keene areas could have a nice late season snow (1-3"). HubbDave will have downplayed himself to a warning event. In all seriousness , gun to head at this moment I think we sees a sloppy inch or two for the CP 15 or so miles inland if things break ok , might be two bouts of snow there early am and again Friday late day , and 3-5” at 500” around 495 and 5-10” for N Orh county I see a big elevation snow in western areas and I would guess that there will be some areas near 2.4-2.5 K that see 2 feet in S VT to maybe N Berks for areas that flip and accumulate before dark . I believe Kev area is extremely hard to forecast and likely sees 5-6” at 1K I could see my area getting advisory amount in fire hose Friday am and I could see greenfield getting 3-4 of glopppp. I see my area having a better shot of getting shut out currently . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM didn’t move too much. It tickled SE but not enough for a big dog solution over most of SNE. It is still an impressive solution for ORH county up into S VT and Monads. RGEM...everybody knows that model blows rats. NAM way more reliable....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 My top analogs for this storm: 1. April 1st 1997 2. March 8th 2013 3. Early Dec 2019 4. Feb 2 2021 I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: My top analogs for this storm: 1. April 1st 1997 2. March 8th 2013 3. Early Dec 2019 4. Feb 2 2021 I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog. I think you mean an EAST to WEST fetch ..right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, George001 said: My top analogs for this storm: 1. April 1st 1997 2. March 8th 2013 3. Early Dec 2019 4. Feb 2 2021 I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog. If all of the atmospheric dynamics, currently modeled, come into play, this can be a baby April 97 for elevated areas in SNE but that storm was a much different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think you mean an EAST to WEST fetch ..right? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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