ma blizzard Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 21z RAP was run out of my basement ... obliterates ORH county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 My district just called a remote learning day. Crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Hopefully 0.0" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: 21z RAP was run out of my basement ... obliterates ORH county Can you touch upon other regions north and south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: 21z RAP was run out of my basement ... obliterates ORH county 21z HRRR was sick too. It was better for the 495 region though than the RAP which was more marginal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Tippy throwing out 11+ ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yo Mod power - can you del that other obs thread .. my bad! Didn't know this one was fired up when I started that - thx " This is a good case study on the topic of marginality and the excruciating difficulty there is in deterministic weather forecasting when at or < single degree C through critical vertical sounding structures will parlay vastly different sensible impacts. This might be a fun now-cast ride, because even with the ( recently debatable...) higher confidence Euro model only being 24 and 30 hours away, it's subtle movement variations across the last three cycles have meant < 1" to 15" impliations in Metrowest of Boston, and add or subtract as needed in how those runs might effect QPF and ptypes elsewhere. Agree with WIll that the locked confidence ( 70-80% being that lock numbers, if you will ..) probably Kevin to Hubb' up through EEN and the lower Greens over to the Whites, with perhaps a couple stripes near the river valleys out that way with temperature and local studies combining to shadow less. 11+ and now casting option for more... guessing 600 foot is where the stack efficiency gets better out that way. As for Willamantic CT to BED ... 20 miles either side... I'm not frankly sure how else to call that zone other than to average between Mt Watchpoopy and the Bourne Bridge ...and let the chips fall where they may. Maybe some sort of lockable consensus will materialize here in the next couple cycles, but I almost suspect this giga-motions right through the ordeal due it the whole structure sort of 'floating' at mid levels as opposed to being very well anchored to surface fronts/inflection points. Just wanna to take a moment to reflect that this mid April signal has been there for two weeks or more ... I personally let the subject go - because frankly...I hate and despise having it happen by this late in the spring. But, you now... lol - it's April. It's New England, and as they say in "Animal House," "Thank you, sire - may I please have another" j/k, but it's interesting that despite all journeys since this signal for popped in the American telecon, here we are after all. wow - Presently 44 in Ayer - dropping nicely... Down 8 in the last 6 hours... T-minus 4.5 deg before cat-paws commence 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Models are starting to look pretty good for Randolph. Cam link for when SNE turns to rain: https://video.nest.com/live/URwoSmP3dg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 21z HRRR was sick too. It was better for the 495 region though than the RAP which was more marginal there. Despite being somewhat out of range the great consistency the HRRR has showed speaks alot of volumes. When the HRRR is that consistent for that long of a period it can be very difficult to beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Despite being somewhat out of range the great consistency the HRRR has showed speaks alot of volumes. When the HRRR is that consistent for that long of a period it can be very difficult to beat The thing is, only slight changes could massive changes to sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: The thing is, only slight changes could massive changes to sensible wx. yeah very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 The RAP and HRRR are keeping me from throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 hour ago, radarman said: can't set expectations any lower than zero even in my interior location with 540'. It's ALL upside baby A lot of snow reaching the ground. How much accumulating...? Accumulation rate vs melting rate. Seems it would be easy enough to model this...but we’re left to guessing. I see temps broadly at surface 34-36 even at the height of it... This is why NWS snowfall forecast maps and model qpf is still world’s apart at go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Pretty impressive Euro probs of 3”+. If only it didn’t have such an awful winter so we could have a bit more confidence in it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 So, from 30 minutes ago to now.. I watched my temperature drop from 46.6 to now 40!!! I found that quite a drop in a short period of time. I couldn't believe my eyes as I watched it while I was eating dinner. We'll see what that means for tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Of course he does. I can’t wait to see pics of decapitated chickens from coops collapsing. Yesterday he was downing daylight snow today he posts daylight soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 21z RPM ran from my computer 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has anyone skied this? Stein's Run...lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Melina and Dave's school doing the fake snow day tomorrow..."remote learning" @HoarfrostHubb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 21z RPM ran from my computer That model I bet scored lowest out of all hi res this winter.Just an abysmal model in general . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 I-190 marks the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Melina and Dave's school doing the fake snow day tomorrow..."remote learning" @HoarfrostHubb Sucks. Wife has a regular snow day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sucks. Wife has a regular snow day. all it takes is one or two rotten limbs and you've got one too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Magic says they might reopen on Saturday... unfortunately, I think tomorrow would be the day... Update 4/15: There is a major “winter” storm hitting Magic Thursday night through Friday. While Red Lift is already in off-season repair mode and can’t operate, if there is enough snow on lower mountain, we may open Green Chair to mid-mtn for Saturday April 17th, just for the heck of it. Since there is no base snow left, it would be all-natural, no grooming, whatever it is type stuff. There would be no lodge or take-out food or rentals etc. Just the T-BAR for refreshments, chili and dogs, and Tavern for a few bevies. Laid-back, take a few indie bonus runs. Tickets at the window would be $39 if it is a go. Won’t know that until late Friday as we see how much falls at base of Green Lift. Since we are closed for the 20/21 season, I guess this would be the unofficial earliest opening for the 21/22 season–IF it can happen. Stay tuned here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 50 minutes ago, radarman said: Magic says they might reopen on Saturday... unfortunately, I think tomorrow would be the day... Update 4/15: There is a major “winter” storm hitting Magic Thursday night through Friday. While Red Lift is already in off-season repair mode and can’t operate, if there is enough snow on lower mountain, we may open Green Chair to mid-mtn for Saturday April 17th, just for the heck of it. Since there is no base snow left, it would be all-natural, no grooming, whatever it is type stuff. There would be no lodge or take-out food or rentals etc. Just the T-BAR for refreshments, chili and dogs, and Tavern for a few bevies. Laid-back, take a few indie bonus runs. Tickets at the window would be $39 if it is a go. Won’t know that until late Friday as we see how much falls at base of Green Lift. Since we are closed for the 20/21 season, I guess this would be the unofficial earliest opening for the 21/22 season–IF it can happen. Stay tuned here. That's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 NAM cancels anything south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 NRN CT maybe, but it’s focusing the Monads into srn VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Now BOX has a WSW in the nrn half of ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM cancels anything south of the pike. Shocker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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