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April 15-16 interior snow threat


ORH_wxman
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wish I could with you lol.

I'm kind of worried about power outages in Holliston if we get like 4-6" of slush on everything. I could see a scenario where it pounds 33-34F paste for several hours and it's 37F catpaws for several hours on each side of the good lift....the weight on the trees and lines would be horrible.

Also possible we don't get much of anything.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Guys , i can still Book that spot in SVT at 2k. Got about another half hour to make decision

Does that look like a solid shot of 15" or so 

I was a little spooked by the 6z euro and nam run but that backed off and the E trend seemed to have stopped

Bring Edith. You win either way.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm kind of worried about power outages in Holliston if we get like 4-6" of slush on everything. I could see a scenario where it pounds 33-34F paste for several hours and it's 37F catpaws for several hours on each side of the good lift....the weight on the trees and lines would be horrible.

Also possible we don't get much of anything.

Not sure if you remember ( heh...yeah right; who am I talking to - ) but there was a Patriots game in October of 2010 where it snowed 2" of slush in the field and was waving by the stadium lights - I know because my buddy scored tickets to the game and texted me ever 10 minutes to inform me how it was the worse most horribly uncomfortable experience of his life up in the stands.  Up here in Ayer the temp did exactly what you describe there - it was 37 when the drops got fat and started glowing as they streaked by, and then at 36 it was over to slush with big cotton balls occasional when it fell to 35. An inch in the grass and car tops... then it was 34.5 and for about a 1/2 hour we were ~  3/4 mi vis or so... But then ... it got light and was back to light slush flakes along side tiny raindrops as the system wound down that evening at 37 ...with that smell of snow in the air mixed with wood smoke nostalgia.  

But I could see that here... sure...only this thing has much stronger fall rate potential so... that might punch the 34.5 to 32.7, with a longer duration...etc.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We will have a good idea of how things are progressing by about midnight or 1am. If we are seeing a place like ORH flipped before midight, then it could be pretty prolific there. That's assuming that we don't get a low that drives back into your fanny and dryslots 2/3rds of SNE too....but I'm doubting those solutions at the moment as I watch each run of the RAP/HRRR.

Thumpity thump thump thump

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm kind of worried about power outages in Holliston if we get like 4-6" of slush on everything. I could see a scenario where it pounds 33-34F paste for several hours and it's 37F catpaws for several hours on each side of the good lift....the weight on the trees and lines would be horrible.

Also possible we don't get much of anything.

Yeah that area is a wildcard for sure. I’m really interested to see how that plays out in the lower elevation interior areas.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure if you remember ( heh...yeah right; who am I talking to - ) but there was a Patriots game in October of 2010 where it snowed 2" of slush in the field and was waving by the stadium lights.  Up here in Ayer the the temp did exactly what you describe there - it was 37 when the drops got fat and started glowing as the streaked by, and then at 36 it was over to slush, then it was 35 and an inch in the grass and car top... then it 34.5 and for about a 1/2 hour we were ... 3/4 mi vis or so... then ... it got light and was back to light slush flakes and tiny raindrops as the system wound down that evening at 37 ...with that smell of snow in the air mixed with wood smoke nostalgia.  

But I could see that here... sure...only this thing has much stronger fall rate potential so... that might punch the 34.5 to 32.7, with a longer duration...etc.

Yes, that was actually 2009...I think 10/18/09. There was this crazy UVV max that dumped like 3" in Foxborough in a 2 hour span. In ORH, I had about 2" over the course of 6 hours....never had the rates that Foxborough had, but we had enough elevation to slowly accumulate.

 

Agreed that this one has a colder profile...at least aloft. The question is how much UVV do we get. Seems to be a lot of disagreement this close in for how strong the cross-hair sig is for the 495 belt....a GFS-esque scenario doesn't give much, but some of these other runs do cross-hair us for several hours which could force a 32F 1/4 mile parachute party for 4-6 hours....and we know things can stack up quickly at those rates. Such a huge difference between that and 34-35F wet noodles at 1-1.5 mile vis.

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