CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Goes into RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Goes into RI That can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Goes into RI Eventually, but it makes it there via Cape Cod...that matters versus doing it via like EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Eventually, but it makes it there via Cape Cod...that matters versus doing it via like EWB. True, but I would imagine that is still a limiting factor in far NE areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That can't be good. It's not great for inside of 495...tries to wrap in some warm air at 925. It's a crusher though for west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ha... Lot of hedging going on in here today ... Can't say I blame anyone under the circumstances. No one wants ...or perhaps "dares" is more like it, to call a major snow storm in this, and probably...taking the peevishness and averaging it against the 06z Euro/12z NAM FOUS grid ... probably yields what Ryan sort of just laid out for CT ...ranging to 12 or 14 up there at 850" els by the border with NH ... Might be time to just call that and let the chips fall where they may - or in this case... parachutes. I wouldn’t say no one dares to call for a major snow storm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 48.1/32 Light rain and sleet Rain started half an hour ago but is now mixed with ice pellets. I didn't expect any frozen this quickly. Going to start an obs thread Dry layer. Should go to all rain for a bit before flipping to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Interesting looking dry slot on the Euro. As much as I hate to say it... this is a Kevin crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, George001 said: I wouldn’t say no one dares to call for a major snow storm.... Fine, no one with a clue, or modicum of credibility is calling for one for the majority of the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 That’s a nice hit probably from the airport on N and W. KORH that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: True, but I would imagine that is still a limiting factor in far NE areas.... The key is how far west it eventually makes before looping back SE...so we see it eventually make it to RI after crossing the western Cape and then it loops back to ACK....if the peak western advance is, say, PYM or GHG instead, then that matters a lot for that 495 belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact difference that it still, despite the short range, has uncertainty headaches. The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype. It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamic pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Pivotal clown has me over a foot... even if I cut that in half it is a warning event in mid April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Interesting looking dry slot on the Euro. As much as I hate to say it... this is a Kevin crusher. Maybe even west of there. It does that back bent thing. Although, west of him as lower elevation. But yeah after seeing the euro, that would get him really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact implications that it's still, despite the short range, got uncertainty. The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype. It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamics pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where. Yes, we wouldn't be sweating these wiggles when the column is 8C to 10C colder in mid February. But in mid-April, they matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact implications that it's still, despite the short range, got uncertainty. The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype. It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamics pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where. Exactly. In Feb it’s noise. Now it’s an earthquake. Simple as that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe even west of there. It does that back bent thing. Although, west of him as lower elevation. But yeah after seeing the euro, that would get him really good. I'd be fine with a 4-8 kind of deal for Woody. Pretty good model agreement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yes, we wouldn't be sweating these wiggles when the column is 8C to 10C colder in mid February. But in mid-April, they matter. Reminds me of how last season ended...too little too late. Fits with how I expected the season to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'd be fine with a 4-8 kind of deal for Woody. Pretty good model agreement. Congrats Woody AWT. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Interesting looking dry slot on the Euro. As much as I hate to say it... this is a Kevin crusher. Dirty deeds done dirt cheap ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro is a tic or so W of the 06z run. How's that rain looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Ironically ...I'd be fine with nothing for that matter. Ha ha, don't even want snow personally ... not this late. 78 F with maple blossoms beginning to fill the air with scents that trigger homage and visions of dream girl ( or whatever floats one's WOKE-boat ... ), seems difficult to compete with if were up to me. ah hell. But to become a Met Jedi Master, over come one's fears must you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: How's that rain looking? Wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 I'd say I have about 40% shot at getting that 1/2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 5 to 1 is still 8 to 10 for those who flip, places like Hunchie and Pete probably 8 to 1 and earlier flip. Early call is Hunchie 12 Pete 12 ORH 10 Kev 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 5 to 1 is still 8 to 10 for those who flip, places like Hunchie and Pete probably 8 to 1 and earlier flip. Early call is Hunchie 12 Pete 12 ORH 10 Kev 8 We will have a good idea of how things are progressing by about midnight or 1am. If we are seeing a place like ORH flipped before midight, then it could be pretty prolific there. That's assuming that we don't get a low that drives back into your fanny and dryslots 2/3rds of SNE too....but I'm doubting those solutions at the moment as I watch each run of the RAP/HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 HRRR has that awesome CCB look for Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR has that awesome CCB look for Dave. I'm likely going to be drinking scorpion bowls on winter hill. Should be interesting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR has that awesome CCB look for Dave. A nice band from White River Junction or so down to ORH Poundtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm likely going to be drinking scorpion bowls on winter hill. Should be interesting there. Wish I could with you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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