radarman Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GFS is awfully dry above 700mb. Verbatim, those snow amounts on the clown maps are going to be way overdone. It slots SNE quickly above 700mb. some of this may be location specific... at least here the 12z run at 18hrs is saturated to h55 whereas the 6z run at 24 hrs was drying out rapidly above h7. Whether that's just mid level low noise, or it's easing back on the dry air as we get closer is unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Holy 15Z Rap looks like the 6Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: hmmm, VT back on table lol I wouldn’t be pinning the tail on the donkey (gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wouldn’t be pinning the tail on the donkey (gfs) i don't know where the F to pin it. Also my G.F bday is Saturday and we are heading to Spruce Peak, Stowe. Would be a shiat show if i am stuck in S VT and can't get out friday nite but thats how i roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro doesn't look like 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy 15Z Rap looks like the 6Z Euro ORH grid collapser. It's def west of the 09z run though which jackpotted E MA. 12z Canadian looks pretty meh....though it is SE of the 00z which was really far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro doesn't look like 06z run. You and your double negatives ... let me see if I can parse this out - Okay, I think I got it. If the Euro's 12z looks different than the 06 z, it may be expected ?- lol.. j/k Yeah I hear you though - I'm curious about that myself. You know, the FOUS outline I provided an hour ago, in concept and perhaps even discretely so, wonderfully matches the 06z Euro - I find that interesting. I wonder what the run-to-run constancy of the Euro will be and if it re-ups on that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Thoughts I have is that global models are occluding too fast. We have seen that before. Omega drives the bus even at lower els. Dynamic cooling under banding let's some overperform while a mile outside the banding its rain. NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... I think the end game here is probably the usual suspects. Tough to do better than that so late in the season. I would certainly lean in the wet category for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy 15Z Rap looks like the 6Z Euro Pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You and your double negatives ... let me see if I can parse this out - Okay, I think I got it. If the Euro's 12z look different than the 06 z, it may be expected - lol.. j/k Yeah I hear you though - I'm curious about that myself. You know, the FOUS outline I provided an hour ago, in concept and perhaps even discretely so, wonderfully matches the 06z Euro - I find that interesting. I wonder what the run-to-run constancy of the Euro will be and if it re-ups on that look. Just some things i have noticed when the went to the 06z-18z runs, They look different then the 0z-12z runs, And it happens a lot too but dam if i know why, It has to be data driven obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Pic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Anyone want to guess how much to slash off clowns with this? 50%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone want to guess how much to slash off clowns with this? 50%? under 800 or so feet....80% under 1500 30% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone want to guess how much to slash off clowns with this? 50%? I'd say at least that much in DJFM ... but in April, nodding to climate might wanna go closer to 100 haha No but this situation is unique in a sense that it snows dense and I think dense is closer to what you see is what you get... You can't negotiate on the < side of 10:1 as much as you can question them above that value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH grid collapser. It's def west of the 09z run though which jackpotted E MA. 12z Canadian looks pretty meh....though it is SE of the 00z which was really far west. The Canadian which loves to bury us with imaginary snow all winter has actually been consistently meh the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 15z HRR looks pretty awesome too for interior MA/E CT/NW RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd say at least that much in DJFM ... but in April, nodding to climate might wanna go closer to 100 haha No but this situation is unique in a sense that it snows dense and I think dense is closer to what you see is what you get... You can't negotiate on the < side of 10:1 as much as you can question them above that value. Yeah this is a unique set up where the higher terrain could actually be pulling greater than 10 to 1 in the heaviest bands but then for several hours on each side of the truly heavy stuff, they are getting 5 or 6 to 1 slop. Below 500 feet I'd prob say you aren't getitng better than 8 to 1 even in the heaviest banding....maybe 10 to 1 if you are in the 300-500 foot range. We have to figure out which model to believe first though. Something like the GFS is pretty snooze-worthy to the east of the Berkshires and monads because it drysots everyone pretty fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 5:1 is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 5:1 is realistic. Overall that seems right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Ukie is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Overall that seems right That's prob low for your 'hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 I expect nothing...any snow will be a bonus. I'm sure Will in Holliston will score 3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie is boring So was the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expect nothing...any snow will be a bonus. I'm sure Will in Holliston will score 3". They are going to be a lot of weenies in SNE enjoying white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is a unique set up where the higher terrain could actually be pulling greater than 10 to 1 in the heaviest bands but then for several hours on each side of the truly heavy stuff, they are getting 5 or 6 to 1 slop. Below 500 feet I'd prob say you aren't getitng better than 8 to 1 even in the heaviest banding....maybe 10 to 1 if you are in the 300-500 foot range. We have to figure out which model to believe first though. Something like the GFS is pretty snooze-worthy to the east of the Berkshires and monads because it drysots everyone pretty fast. Honestly ... ugh. This isn't just advantageous to our fun in this thing, but I frankly don't have confidence in the GFS in a situation like this, ...due to it's cornucopia of individual bias nuances. For one, it doesn't have the resolution in the boundary layer that the Euro/Meso camp and clusters do ... in a situation that is already amorphously ill defined and difficult for the latter technology suite to handle. And those thermodynamic feedbacks are probably going to have to be handled unusually precisely to know how they 'force' the BL resistance 'during' the storm as a delta(scenario) .... The GFS ... I don't know if the purely hydrostatic approach is the best tool for this gig - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: They are going to be a lot of weenies in SNE enjoying white rain. How expectant can you really be on the 16th of April? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie is boring Stein's dong up here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: They are going to be a lot of weenies in SNE enjoying white rain. Still my thought...I was about to amend my forecast after thr 06z euro, but glad I held off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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