ineedsnow Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 NAM definitely NW at hr21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 nam says 7-10 split Berks S VT NW Orh country and then E mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Only 1 decent resturaunt in Princeton though... lots in Wormtown New invention, cars 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, tamarack said: Or a month ago. Would probably be 12-18 here on the Ides. Seasonal trend in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Only 1 decent resturaunt in Princeton though... lots in Wormtown New invention, cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just make sure you move into those areas I highlighted for you on the north and west sides of the city. There can sometimes be a big difference between them and the south or southeast side at lower elevation. Although since you are moving from near Philly, it will all seem a lot snowier regardless. Paxton for the win in my book. Great snow weenie town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 LOL, this isthe NAM sounding over me at 15z tomorrow. Look at that cross-hair sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Pretty big shift NW from the 06z run on the 12z Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: LOL, this isthe NAM sounding over me at 15z tomorrow. Look at that cross-hair sig Unstable above it too. Might even have thunder. 495 crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: New invention, cars One of the best restaraunts I ever ate at used to be in PRinceton: Sonoma. Then they moved to ORH and went downhill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 N RI having some fun too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 i just might see a few flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3k NAM looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This run won't be as gonzo methinks Say wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Some areas may actually flip to snow and then rain as dynamics weaken a bit after 18z. Still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Ha ha, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Aye yai yai. What to do with the 06z Euro, huh. Firstly, is there any historical performance perspectives on these foreign models that specifically discusses off main interval model solutions? In the old days of the MRF turned GFS .. roughly 15 years ago give or take, the 06 and 18 Z runs were advised as being more than less equatable to a purturbed ensemble member, and to be leery of those run cycles because they did not contain the fuller suite of input grids for one, but because of that they also default did not have all the souped up advantages that the 00 and 12 Z solutions come with. However, I seem to recall reading or hearing someone ( hopefully a rep from an actual agency and not some articulate weinershnitzel that only sounds convincing - like me LOL ) kidding.. .but, the 06 and 18 Z GFS runs are now supposely more packed with legit initializations ( not data samples that were pulled off the previous model's first 6 hour positions ...etc..), but actual empirical values. I don't know what amount of all this is really true. But, I do vividly recall the Euro prompted Will once to put a thread together for a coastal two winters ago, because it came out on an 18z run, and just 72 hours out, too, morphing everything together just like we wanted to hear and see - like a con artist only found in literature... Then, we spent 6 hours ballooning said thread from 1 page to ... perhaps 10 pages deep of what ultimately turned out to be red herring when the next run abandoned and fell back to the emerging consensus for a nada event. No fault to Will - shit I would have probably done the same... I recall the telecon layout over in the American side really wanted more anyway, and that Euro run was inside it's 4.5 day wheelhouse. So...ever since then I've been leery of these off hour Euro runs. Fact of that matter is, though subtle in amount of shifting considering the total domain space ... it does still present a continuity change - just so happens it went from a ho-hum elevation paster to "fun" (?) grid concern - I have been advertising myself that the 'noise' should not be so readily ignored in these very highly, very delicate and sensitive determination deal(s) ... 30 miles and .4C worth of corrections is 1" of silver versus 10" of 3 days in the dark...etc... I will say this ... if that 06z Euro run takes the prize it will "synergistically" overwhelm the component determinants in that solution and uniform the column down to Metrowest driveway tops - ... In fact, there could be a secondary maximum that ultimately illustrates that point... say Wayland to Shrewbury to Acton ...somwhere in there getting almost as much as a hill tops out near Watchusett ... It's sort of metaphoric to the same argument of "snowing hard enough .. it doesn't matter what time of year" ? same idea, only... this storm goes too far over typology in seasonality/climo/and what-evers aspect, and just places that region inside a cyro cauldron - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3k Nam has low into RI. Back to a Berks mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Well, that escalated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Raining here in Rutland. It has been so dry that it feels really weird to hear the sound of rain outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3k Nam has low into RI. Back to a Berks mauling. Put up that weenie Map. KEV to Nw Ri crushed up thru Elevated ORH county . Nada east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 NAM is a wet dream here. Sheets and jammies just soaked 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Put up that weenie Map. KEV to Nw Ri crushed up thru Elevated ORH county . Nada east. 3km NAM has like 8-10" 10 miles west of me while I get nothing, lol. Doubt that happens, but that would be a good toaster bath. I am prob heading to winter hill anyway though for this one. Still a decent amount of variability though on the model guidance in terms of exact stall location of low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 3km NAM has like 8-10" 10 miles west of me while I get nothing, lol. Doubt that happens, but that would be a good toaster bath. I am prob heading to winter hill anyway though for this one. Still a decent amount of variability though on the model guidance in terms of exact stall location of low. This will end up being a last minute surprise for some, Models still have the slp track and stall in different places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: LOL, this isthe NAM sounding over me at 15z tomorrow. Look at that cross-hair sig 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3km NAM has like 8-10" 10 miles west of me while I get nothing, lol. Doubt that happens, but that would be a good toaster bath. I am prob heading to winter hill anyway though for this one. Still a decent amount of variability though on the model guidance in terms of exact stall location of low. Where do you live these days, Will? It was nice having the 495 win-zone for 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM is a wet dream here. Sheets and jammies just soaked you might get smoked if the NAM verifies. Really tightens up H7 just off to your east with a pretty impressive fronto band just west of it...which happens to look to be from like ORH to you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3K just from 6 hrs ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 12z rpm hooks the low around the Cape and eventually into the south shore. Gets interesting right into Boston for a couple hours. Pretty large spread this morning with the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM is a wet dream here. Sheets and jammies just soaked It’s about 3-6 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Where do you live these days, Will? It was nice having the 495 win-zone for 30 minutes. Holliston near the Ashland/Hopkinton line...not that far from you actually. But I'll prob be up at winter hill in ORH tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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