April 15-16 interior snow threat

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Kev flip at like 4am? Hrrr pounds Kevin to Worcester. 

HRRR and RAP have been ridiculous for like 8-10 runs in a row. I'm not biting fully on them because we know their issues beyond 6 hours, but it's something to watch considering that some of the real models have shown these types of solutions at various times. There could be a 6 hour window of very heavy snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Kev flip at like 4am? Hrrr pounds Kevin to Worcester. 

Was thinking more like 12-1 AM. 

[Modfan2]

A lot are people are going to see those Box amounts and pay no attention; there is going to be a lot of surprised people tomorrow!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was thinking more like 12-1 AM. 

It’s possible it flips that early but my guess is a bit later. If it flips by midnight there then you will get 6”+ probably. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still a very precarious storm wrt snow vs rain.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

In other news...the drought worries have vanished. Big rains here atm.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

HRRR and RAP have been ridiculous for like 8-10 runs in a row. I'm not biting fully on them because we know their issues beyond 6 hours, but it's something to watch considering that some of the real models have shown these types of solutions at various times. There could be a 6 hour window of very heavy snow.

That look on the HRRR is impressive. Honestly if I didn't have to work, I'd join you for a few bowls on the deck.     Always nice to see the last event of the season. 

[CoastalWx]

LMAO finally saw the 18z RPM. That is a wing and a prayer here. 

[CoastalWx]

A salute to all:

 

 

[George001]

39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re not getting a biggie man. Your 15-40” forecast for NW of 95 is going down like a fat kid on a slip and slide. 

40 no, but 15 from Boston to Providence with 2 feet+ in the mountains? I can see it, we just need the low a bit more SE. It’s aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

40 no, but 15 from Boston to Providence with 2 feet+ in the mountains? I can see it, we just need the low a bit more SE. It’s aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

Take Um up!!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

40 no, but 15 from Boston to Providence with 2 feet+ in the mountains? I can see it, we just need the low a bit more SE. It’s aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

0.0 chance. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s possible it flips that early but my guess is a bit later. If it flips by midnight there then you will get 6”+ probably. 

Let’s do this !

[MaineJayhawk]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

40 no, but 15 from Boston to Providence with 2 feet+ in the mountains? I can see it, we just need the low a bit more SE. It’s aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

You must be wearing these

[joey2002]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I love the pretending don’t want lol. We all want it and it’s coming hard and heavy.

Seasons out of seasons FTW

[radarman]

34 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

can't set expectations any lower than zero even in my interior location with 540'.   It's ALL upside baby

[George001]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0.0 chance. 

I disagree, the euro just 2 runs ago showed this scenario (the newer run isn’t as good, but it’s still very close). Even the most recent run the more aggressive models (Euro and Navy) are the better ones so I remain optimistic. The navy in particular is a foot+ right to the cape with 20+ in my area (I’m not quite that aggressive since I’m using the euro as well)

[CoastalWx]

Phil doesn’t get old. Ever since that dude from PA (I think?) showed that clip....I can’t stop laughing. Every. Single. Time. 

[CoastalWx]

I do wonder locally if Blue Hill to Sharon on 95 can rip at least a few inches of Phil paste. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

40 no, but 15 from Boston to Providence with 2 feet+ in the mountains? I can see it, we just need the low a bit more SE. It’s aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, George001 said:

The euro just 2 runs ago showed this scenario (the newer run isn’t as good, but it’s still very close).

It did not and you can’t go by clown maps anyway. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Temps dropping quickly. Down to 39.4 

[George001]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It did not and you can’t go by clown maps anyway. 

I’m not using the clown maps. No clown map besides maybe the long range nam (which is garbage anyways) showed anywhere near what I forecast. I don’t use snow maps when making forecasts, what I do is I look at the 500 millibar pattern to try and figure out if the surface presentation makes sense (on the euro it seemed to make sense), then I check the temp profiles in the upper levels, and if there are no warm layers I go through the run and look at how much QPF falls under a temp profile that supports snow. Based on what I have seen from the upper level temps, the snow maps are drastically underestimating the amount of snow. What the models say is a cold rain is a heavy wet snow based on the temp profiles. My analysis of the 6z euro was that the evolution supported over a foot of snow (thermal profiles supported 1.5-2 inches of QPF as snow, but ratios less than 10:1 so not more like 12-15 inches instead of 15-20 inches) in my backyard even though the maps only had like 6. 

[CoastalWx]

I will say that some guidance keeps Kevin in an area of good fronto. Specifically HRRR. Really goes to town there.  Back bent ftw.

[joey2002]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Only a 10% chance of Worcester seeing 1”?  
 

And why is Kevin’s high end amount the same as his expected NWS 1-2” snowfall? 
 

Are they looking at the same models as we are?  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, joey2002 said:

Only a 10% chance of Worcester seeing 1”?  
 

And why is Kevin’s high end amount the same as his expected NWS 1-2” snowfall? 
 

Are they looking at the same models as we are?  

GYX does it too with the high end maps. They have no problem spreading 0’s with the low end ones though.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say that some guidance keeps Kevin in an area of good fronto. Specifically HRRR. Really goes to town there.  Back bent ftw.

Naked back bends weenies into fannies?

[SJonesWX]

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not using the clown maps. No clown map besides maybe the long range nam (which is garbage anyways) showed anywhere near what I forecast. I don’t use snow maps when making forecasts, what I do is I look at the 500 millibar pattern to try and figure out if the surface presentation makes sense (on the euro it seemed to make sense), then I check the temp profiles in the upper levels, and if there are no warm layers I go through the run and look at how much QPF falls under a temp profile that supports snow. Based on what I have seen from the upper level temps, the snow maps are drastically underestimating the amount of snow. What the models say is a cold rain is a heavy wet snow based on the temp profiles. My analysis of the 6z euro was that the evolution supported over a foot of snow (thermal profiles supported 1.5-2 inches of QPF as snow, but ratios less than 10:1 so not more like 12-15 inches instead of 15-20 inches) in my backyard even though the maps only had like 6. 

put up your forecast map.

[Heisy]

I’m kinda upset couldn’t make it up for this one. First event all year I haven’t traveled for lol, I’m like an addict. Even if it’s a foot of snow should be the last “tracked” event until next year 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In other news...the drought worries have vanished. Big rains here atm.

Drought worries in NE are always ridiculous. We pour here. Lots of street flooding with blocked drAins.