40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Stein's dong up here Guessing it still closes off sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s best to be oblivious and come in the day before with fireworks going. Enjoy it. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Ukie actually punches the dryslot through NH and pounds into C MA/NE CT on the SW edge of that backbent wf. The problem is the model is a little warm. -1C at 925 in C MA and 0C into NE CT and has 2m temps well into the 30s. Knock those numbers down 1-2C and the clowns will respond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ukie actually punches the dryslot through NH and pounds into C MA/NE CT on the SW edge of that backbent wf. The problem is the model is a little warm never right yet somehow strangely manages to score highly in verification monitoring.... -1C at 925 in C MA and 0C into NE CT and has 2m temps well into the 30s. Knock those numbers down 1-2C, like WOULD HAPPEN in reality anyways, and the clowns will respond. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's prob low for your 'hood. Yeah... I guess I meant for those who see snow in general... but it will have big differences due to elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: They are going to be a lot of weenies in SNE enjoying white rain. I’ve thought from the get go you’ll need to be above 500’ for solid accums 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Gfs would be nothing even in Worcester and northern mass, which is not in line with the consensus, so it can safely be disregarded. The low is unlikely to retrograde NW of Worcester. This close in the short range models like the href and nam are useful, so going with a Euro/Navy/Canadian/Nam/HREF blend, you get a low stalling right over the canal, with the NW end of the envelope (Canadian) getting the low to around my area, with the more se guidance (Navy) bringing the low 10 miles SE of Nantucket. I expect the navy to move NW and the Canadian to move SE, with the Euro having the right idea. Looks like Nam was SE but corrected NW, which makes sense (in line with the consensus now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 GFS is pretty dry in mid levels for many... but probably still fine here in the comma head (saturated to like -16c or so). I would probably do a 1-3 for valley in N CT and 3-6 hills with 6+ highest hilltowns right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Snow for Scooter while Ray is raining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Snow for Scooter while Ray is raining? I already said it probably goes down like that....whole season has been like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Ha ha... Lot of hedging going on in here today ... Can't say I blame anyone under the circumstances. No one wants ...or perhaps "dares" is more like it, to call a major snow storm in this, and probably...taking the peevishness and averaging it against the 06z Euro/12z NAM FOUS grid ... probably yields what Ryan sort of just laid out for CT ...ranging to 12 or 14 up there at 850" els by the border with NH ... Might be time to just call that and let the chips fall where they may - or in this case... parachutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 I like Dave's spot in this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ha... Lot of hedging going on in here today ... Can't say I blame anyone under the circumstances. No one wants ...or perhaps "dares" is more like it, to call a major snow storm in this, and probably...taking the peevishness and averaging it against the 06z Euro/12z NAM FOUS grid ... probably yields what Ryan sort of just laid out for CT ...ranging to 12 or 14 up there at 850" els by the border with NH ... Might be time to just call that and let the chips fall where they may - or in this case... parachutes. The locks are Berkshires/S VT/Monadnocks and maybe extreme NW Litchfield hills in CT?. Also hard for me to see how a place like N ORH county at elevation doesn't get whacked....I suppose the GFS could score the coup and it's a sloppy 2". But most other guidance has warning snowfall there. The tougher spots are adjacent S ORH county into N CT/NW RI and then the 495 belt. Those areas could legitimately be 6-10" or almost nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 A month ago we’d be dancing in the streets with this setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Driving from my hood (1000') on Rte 2 to the lowlands of Leominster (work is at 500') could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Does this remind anyone of December 9th of this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Does this remind anyone of December 9th of this year? You mean 12/5? That was the storm that had big snow in ORH but pretty meh inside of 495 because it was barely too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You mean 12/5? That was the storm that had big snow in ORH but pretty meh inside of 495 because it was barely too warm. Yes, that's what I meant, thank you. I confused myself with 12/9/05 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: GFS is pretty dry in mid levels for many... but probably still fine here in the comma head (saturated to like -16c or so). I would probably do a 1-3 for valley in N CT and 3-6 hills with 6+ highest hilltowns right now. Pound me 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 we pray the 12z Euro resembles the 6z run .. Looking at the 6z run again - still can't get over how obscene that solution was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Yes, that's what I meant, thank you. I confused myself with 12/9/05 haha There's some similarities with the marginal aspect of the temps but the evolution is different and frankly, the profile looks colder than that one...at least on these dynamic solutions they do. But we obviously have the time of year working against us near the surface where it is felt the most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: we pray the 12z Euro resembles the 6z run .. Looking at the 6z run again - still can't get over how obscene that solution was Yeah I don't expect a repeat, that was too crazy. But the key for me is seeing if this low slingshots over the Cape versus like EWB to PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's some similarities with the marginal aspect of the temps but the evolution is different and frankly, the profile looks colder than that one...at least on these dynamic solutions they do. But we obviously have the time of year working against us near the surface where it is felt the most. That’s the one where Union had a nice 10 spot, not so much around. I think dynamics will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pound me Was that a text to a dilf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Was that a text to a dilf? How did you get ahold of my phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 Euro is west of 06z, but still slinghsots the low over CHH and Cape Cod Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is west of 06z, but still slinghsots the low over CHH and Cape Cod Bay. Seems like my area in Essex co will get porked in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 12z Euro is a tic or so W of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The locks are Berkshires/S VT/Monadnocks and maybe extreme NW Litchfield hills in CT?. Also hard for me to see how a place like N ORH county at elevation doesn't get whacked....I suppose the GFS could score the coup and it's a sloppy 2". But most other guidance has warning snowfall there. The tougher spots are adjacent S ORH county into N CT/NW RI and then the 495 belt. Those areas could legitimately be 6-10" or almost nothing. mm... may be a now-cast at/beneath the 600 foot line .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 48.1/32 Light rain and sleet Rain started half an hour ago but is now mixed with ice pellets. I didn't expect any frozen this quickly. Going to start an obs thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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