April 15-16 interior snow threat

[dendrite]

I’m going to end up outside every 30 mins shaking paste off of my bamboo.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie much more sober. Did increase snow ORH north. Especially Dave on north. Kevin, lots to work out still. I’d hold back a tad.

Other than Reggie.. everything is a go for accumulating snow here 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than Reggie.. everything is a go for accumulating snow here 

Gfs wasn’t much there. You need to look at what the mid levels are doing and not clown maps. We still have disagreement, but I’d say 2-3” looks probable there for the time being. Could go up. 

[ineedsnow]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Advisory is fine. You’re fairly low right? Everyone needs to look past 10:1 maps. 

540 or so not completely the valley anymore lol 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs wasn’t much there. You need to look at what the mid levels are doing and not clown maps. We still have disagreement, but I’d say 2-3” looks probable there for the time being. Could go up. 

I’m thinking 4” or so for now. If Euro , NAM, HRRR are right we snap every tree . But it’s hard to believe that yet 

[CoastalWx]

NAM is just all out Phil for the whole region. Tough to buy that, but getting more likely  is coming to Dave.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAM is just all out Phil for the whole region. Tough to buy that, but getting more likely  is coming to Dave.

Thinking we get a few here.. Back in October I was sledding with my kid then drove to amherst and there was almost nothing.. I was telling the lady at Cumberland farms how we just went sledding.. She goes there's no snow.. So I said just drive up the road a few miles it was a big difference..

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You seem to have some underlying feelings for Kevin. 

I want to see him pick up trim limbs in his yard! Lol The trend all week has been ticks SE so I think many in Central Mass, NE CT,  have a good chance at 3-6. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m upping mby to 4-7”.    Can’t say I want it. 

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs is more rt 2 and points north. Brings H7 over near MA/CT border. So we still have significant differences, but nrn ORH on north look to get a good whack for the time being.

So did Bob Kraft.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

A nice cold rain here 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9z Rap destroys most eastern areas over to Orh country and Monads.

I like the 20" for Stoneham, MA area lol

[CoastalWx]

Euro definitely moved E-SE compared to 12z. Actually gives Kevin some of that back bent WF love I spoke about yesterday. But that would be real localized and if you are outside that lift, it won't be much. Got to watch where that goes. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

9z Rap destroys most eastern areas over to Orh country and Monads.

I like the 20" for Stoneham, MA area lol

Yeah that's a move. RAP usually amped up too.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that's a move. RAP usually amped up too.

I was half joking last nite but can this Low dumbell out so wide right before it's approach north that it misses wide right. I mean i'm not saying that will happen but the Nam was close at 6z

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I want to see him pick up trim limbs in his yard! Lol The trend all week has been ticks SE so I think many in Central Mass, NE CT,  have a good chance at 3-6. 

3-6” is certainly possible. The models we’ve trusted the most over the years show that and then some . The Euro midlevels look fantastic and argue for more. For now thinking is about 4”. If 12z continues to stay the course then we up. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6” is certainly possible. The models we’ve trusted the most over the years show that and then some . The Euro midlevels look fantastic and argue for more. For now thinking is about 4”. If 12z continues to stay the course then we up. 

AIT. Congrats.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6” is certainly possible. The models we’ve trusted the most over the years show that and then some . The Euro midlevels look fantastic and argue for more. For now thinking is about 4”. If 12z continues to stay the course then we up. 

They don't for you, but you need to get into the band or it is not much.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

They don't for you, but you need to get into the band or it is not much.

5 runs in a row have dropped heavier amounts here. It’s possible

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

5 runs in a row have dropped heavier amounts here. It’s possible

Got to look past the clowns. Some of the models are dropping 10:1 snow there with 925 temps barely above 0C and temps near 35 for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Got to look past the clowns. Some of the models are dropping 10:1 snow there with 925 temps barely above 0C and temps near 35 for you.

Understood but what you look at is the banding signals . They’ve all shown the same area. I’m not looking at amounts. If I was , I’d be thinking 6-12”. They’ve all shown that spine sw of ORH down thru here down to Hebron as a mini Jack. That’s the takeaway 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Do we dry out in time for an 8:20 tee time on Saturday morning?

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was half joking last nite but can this Low dumbell out so wide right before it's approach north that it misses wide right. I mean i'm not saying that will happen but the Nam was close at 6z

Yes. My worry is actually we get the initial band of precip around 00z to 09z late Thursday/early Friday and then it shuts off because the main stuff is offshore and then it backs in from the east but it does so up north because it whiffs us with the wide turn. 

The initial dryslot is going to punch in from the southwest and then it will try and stall as the precip starts moving in from the east with the upper low closing off south of us. But if that happens too late, then you miss out on the goodies. That’s why I was telling Kevin yesterday that I was worried about slotting down in CT and not wanting to trade too much latitude. 

 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Do we dry out in time for an 8:20 tee time on Saturday morning?

I think you’re toast.   The heaviest should be over but showery and cold with wet fairways doesn’t sound like fun.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Understood but what you look at is the banding signals . They’ve all shown the same area. I’m not looking at amounts. If I was , I’d be thinking 6-12”. They’ve all shown that spine sw of ORH down thru here down to Hebron as a mini Jack. That’s the takeaway 

It’s all over though on each model. Nothing is locked. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. My worry is actually we get the initial band of precip around 00z to 09z late Thursday/early Friday and then it shuts off because the main stuff is offshore and then it backs in from the east but it does so up north because it whiffs us with the wide turn. 

The initial dryslot is going to punch in from the southwest and then it will try and stall as the precip starts moving in from the east with the upper low closing off south of us. But if that happens too late, then you miss out on the goodies. That’s why I was telling Kevin yesterday that I was worried about slotting down in CT and not wanting to trade too much latitude. 

 

Nam showed that to the west and southwest. I still feel like it’s an outlier, but something to watch if you are hoping for snow. Still think mostly liquid here so it won’t matter much locally. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Do we dry out in time for an 8:20 tee time on Saturday morning?

Doubt it and the course wil be soaked anyway.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. My worry is actually we get the initial band of precip around 00z to 09z late Thursday/early Friday and then it shuts off because the main stuff is offshore and then it backs in from the east but it does so up north because it whiffs us with the wide turn. 

The initial dryslot is going to punch in from the southwest and then it will try and stall as the precip starts moving in from the east with the upper low closing off south of us. But if that happens too late, then you miss out on the goodies. That’s why I was telling Kevin yesterday that I was worried about slotting down in CT and not wanting to trade too much latitude. 

 

Thanks. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. My worry is actually we get the initial band of precip around 00z to 09z late Thursday/early Friday and then it shuts off because the main stuff is offshore and then it backs in from the east but it does so up north because it whiffs us with the wide turn. 

The initial dryslot is going to punch in from the southwest and then it will try and stall as the precip starts moving in from the east with the upper low closing off south of us. But if that happens too late, then you miss out on the goodies. That’s why I was telling Kevin yesterday that I was worried about slotting down in CT and not wanting to trade too much latitude. 

 

That would fit the persistence side of forecasting and Stein’s webbed hands involved

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That would fit the persistence side of forecasting and Stein’s webbed hands involved

Stein is gone.