Elevation accumulation wet snow I80 northward Noon Thursday~ 2AM Saturday

[qg_omega]

  On 4/13/2021 at 11:25 PM, jm1220 said:

In all seriousness I could see there being snow in the air for most of us and some accumulation in hilly areas away from the coast but the real accums away from the Berkshires or well elevated spots over 500’ are a big stretch to me at this point. Like Don said though it’s not impossible for there to be more in an ideal setup. That is one deep closed low coming. 

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Need to be over 1000 feet at a minimum for this one

[sferic]

  On 4/14/2021 at 12:01 AM, crossbowftw3 said:

the moment I saw that NAM run I fully committed to the idea that the Euro has the right idea with this whole thing, and that the Berkshires are set up to get pummeled on this one. Not like many of us will see the flakes fly anyway, even for those of us N&W of the city who could squeak in 1-3" if we get absolutely lucky. N&E of the City is where one needs to be here.

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I understand your logic and interpreted the models the same way but this evening Binghamton TV mets said 3-6 for the Catskills

[crossbowftw3]

  On 4/14/2021 at 12:48 AM, sferic said:

I understand your logic and interpreted the models the same way but this evening Binghamton TV mets said 3-6 for the Catskills

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still entirely plausible to see this happen, but might be fleeting a bit after today's runs now.

[sferic]

  On 4/14/2021 at 12:51 AM, crossbowftw3 said:

still entirely plausible to see this happen, but might be fleeting a bit after today's runs now.

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Agreed, if 00z suites are consistent with today's runs then I'll see the handwriting on the wall

[nyrangers1022]

Glad and hoping this models.keep the accumulating snow away.  Who the hell wants all that paste on tree already budding.  Limbs down and power outages , no thanks

[LibertyBell]

  On 4/13/2021 at 11:14 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I look forward to the photos.

Then again, ISP picked up 8.5” during April 9-10, 1996.

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Big difference between pre and post April 10 events.  NYC was predicted to get 6-12 but because of UHI they did not (I saw there was heavy snow falling during the Yankee game but very little was accumulating) at JFK though we had 5"

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 4/13/2021 at 11:25 PM, jm1220 said:

In all seriousness I could see there being snow in the air for most of us and some accumulation in hilly areas away from the coast but the real accums away from the Berkshires or well elevated spots over 500’ are a big stretch to me at this point. Like Don said though it’s not impossible for there to be more in an ideal setup. That is one deep closed low coming. 

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Yeah like whats more rare, October 2011 or this?

We actually had over an inch of snow in October 2011 (during the day!) here on the south shore.

 

[crossbowftw3]

NAM still looks nutty for CT/MA folks. For most of the rest of us this ship is growing ever closer to have sailed and that we’ll just have a wet, raw day and night.

  On 4/14/2021 at 11:53 AM, LibertyBell said:

Yeah like whats more rare, October 2011 or this?

We actually had over an inch of snow in October 2011 (during the day!) here on the south shore.

 

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October 2011 was probably more rare purely because of how widespread it was able to be. Realistically, this would only be meaningful/significant at higher New England elevations.

[LibertyBell]

  On 4/14/2021 at 12:03 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

NAM still looks nutty for CT/MA folks. For most of the rest of us this ship is growing ever closer to have sailed and that we’ll just have a wet, raw day and night.

October 2011 was probably more rare purely because of how widespread it was able to be. Realistically, this would only be meaningful/significant at higher New England elevations.

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Yeah I think October 2011 was even more rare than May 1977

Crazy thing about May 1977 was that we'd already hit 90 in April.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

  On 4/14/2021 at 11:53 AM, LibertyBell said:

Yeah like whats more rare, October 2011 or this?

We actually had over an inch of snow in October 2011 (during the day!) here on the south shore.

 

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October 2011. The spring equivalent might be the May 1977 snowfall (even as NYC received only a trace). 

[LibertyBell]

  On 4/14/2021 at 12:31 PM, donsutherland1 said:

October 2011. The spring equivalent might be the May 1977 snowfall (even as NYC received only a trace). 

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Crazy thing about 1977 was that it had already hit 90 here by this time in April.  That must've been the highest temp recorded in the same season prior to a snowstorm lol.

 

[gravitylover]

So, what's todays thoughts, still going to see some snow N and NE of the city? 

[crossbowftw3]

  On 4/14/2021 at 3:19 PM, gravitylover said:

So, what's todays thoughts, still going to see some snow N and NE of the city? 

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Your assumption would be correct. For the rest of us we will probably have some in-air flakes, maybe even some slushy accumulations at elevation, but it’s SNE’s show at this point and not ours.

[crossbowftw3]

  On 4/14/2021 at 3:54 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

Your assumption would be correct. For the rest of us we will probably have some in-air flakes, maybe even some slushy accumulations at elevation, but it’s SNE’s show at this point and not ours.

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See here:

[jm1220]

We're seeing the usual subtle signs that this gets going too late for us near the city and west and doesn't really blow up until it's time for SNE. Many of us could still use the rain though sp hopefully that can happen. You want to be in the Berkshires and White Mtns of NH for this one. 

[sferic]

  On 4/14/2021 at 3:54 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

Your assumption would be correct. For the rest of us we will probably have some in-air flakes, maybe even some slushy accumulations at elevation, but it’s SNE’s show at this point and not ours.

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Agreed, BUT a slight shift South and west can make a difference with as little as 50 miles

[crossbowftw3]

  On 4/14/2021 at 4:59 PM, sferic said:

Agreed, BUT a slight shift South and west can make a difference with as little as 50 miles

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running out of time for major shifts, so I'm discounting anything significant this far west sans at elevation; however, everyone certainly can and probably even will still see some snow

[sferic]

  On 4/14/2021 at 5:04 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

running out of time for major shifts, so I'm discounting anything significant this far west sans at elevation; however, everyone certainly can and probably even will still see some snow

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I thought I was the only one that ever uses the word "sans" !

[sferic]

  On 4/14/2021 at 5:04 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

running out of time for major shifts, so I'm discounting anything significant this far west sans at elevation; however, everyone certainly can and probably even will still see some snow

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Also is lessening of the snow threat for us  because heavier QPF further east or not enough cold air, or a combination of both?

[crossbowftw3]

  On 4/14/2021 at 5:36 PM, sferic said:

Also is lessening of the snow threat for us  because heavier QPF further east or not enough cold air, or a combination of both?

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SImply put, everything failing to come together in time for everyone west of the Hudson.

[sferic]

  On 4/14/2021 at 5:38 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

SImply put, everything failing to come together in time for everyone west of the Hudson.

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Latest from BGM 2:20PM

A few inches of wet snow is expected to fall
at elevations above 1500 feet in the western Catskills, with up
to a few tenths of an inch of snow expected elsewhere east of
I-81

Should the track of the system shift a bit farther west, higher
accumulations will be possible in our area, especially across
the Catskills. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to
be in the lower to mid 30s.

[crossbowftw3]

18z NAM keeping up the same story. All of us here look to probably end up dryslotting for at least half of the night tomorrow.

[forkyfork]

classic redeveloper east trend 

[Stormlover74]

Half inch west of the Hudson if we're lucky

[jm1220]

  On 4/14/2021 at 10:23 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Half inch west of the Hudson if we're lucky

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I think from perhaps my backyard east is where there's possibility for heavier over 1" rain and eastern Suffolk should definitely see amounts closer to 2" but yep, it's the typical outcome for these late developers. And needless to say LOL Nam from last night. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 4/15/2021 at 12:17 AM, jm1220 said:

I think from perhaps my backyard east is where there's possibility for heavier over 1" rain and eastern Suffolk should definitely see amounts closer to 2" but yep, it's the typical outcome for these late developers. And needless to say LOL Nam from last night. 

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Just glad it's not snow. Would've gone from 12-18 to 2-4"

[Rtd208]

  On 4/14/2021 at 9:45 PM, forkyfork said:

classic redeveloper east trend 

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Yep. What originally looked like a 1-2" rainfall for the NYC metro now looks like 0.50" at best with more on LI unless the models wind up being to far east with the heaviest precipitation. 

[MJO812]

Wow Nam for SNE

[jm1220]

  On 4/15/2021 at 2:39 AM, MJO812 said:

Wow Nam for SNE

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I think I would projectile vomit in disgust if that happened. Luckily... NAM. 

[sferic]

I know it's the CMC but 00z puts Catskills firmly back in the game