Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Round 2 has started and seems to have set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 3.3 since Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 I'm curious why Blacksburg hasn't issued a FFW for Watauga/Ashe Counties at least. Their AFD calls for up to 6" and mentions flooding concerns but no watch. Also worth noting my station picked up a 1.79"/hr rate in the middle of that last batch at 6:13PM. The dry rut that is now a full blown creek next to my house seems to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Heavy rain has moved in this morning again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Hey y'all! Checking back in after a while off. Hope all is well. Also, 11Z HRRR - Oof. We do not need that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just hit 4" since Sunday night. 1.4 so far today. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 I didn’t see it posted but there’s a high risk from the WPC for today ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...East/Southern and Central Appalachians... For the Southern Appalachians, Fred is expected to track very near to west of the area, initially bringing upslope flow of ~40 kts and ML CAPE up to 2000 J/kg into the region. Just to the west, Fred's comma head rain pattern is expected to lead to heavy rainfall west of the chain, which some feeder bands in its wake possibly impacting western slopes as well. While model guidance showed disperson, it did not where it mattered most in the western Carolinas. The border of Transylvania/Jackson County NC was hit with heavy rainfall Monday morning, with 4-9" reported. This is also where the guidance projects another 7"+ of rainfall on Tuesday and Tuesday night. With an additional 10" possible locally, and the 00z HREF indicating a 90% chance of exceeding the 100 year recurrence interval, coordinated with the GSP/Greer SC forecast office to issue a High Risk area covering from the vicinity of Asheville NC southwestward to near the SC/NC/GA border junction. This degree of rainfall could lead to landslides/slope failures. The risk of land slips as well as scattered to numerous flash flood events extends across the Moderate Risk area encompassing terrain of northeast GA, northwest SC, and the remainder of western NC. A broad area of 4-8" is expected. A broader Slight Risk encompasses where rain bands could set up across the FL Big Bend early and SC during the morning/afternoon as well as areas which have received 200-400% of their two week average rainfall near the Fall Line in VA and MD, and includes the D.C. area. Impacts across PA and NY should be mitigated by below average rainfall over the past couple of weeks. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I didn’t see it posted but there’s a high risk from the WPC for today ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...East/Southern and Central Appalachians... For the Southern Appalachians, Fred is expected to track very near to west of the area, initially bringing upslope flow of ~40 kts and ML CAPE up to 2000 J/kg into the region. Just to the west, Fred's comma head rain pattern is expected to lead to heavy rainfall west of the chain, which some feeder bands in its wake possibly impacting western slopes as well. While model guidance showed disperson, it did not where it mattered most in the western Carolinas. The border of Transylvania/Jackson County NC was hit with heavy rainfall Monday morning, with 4-9" reported. This is also where the guidance projects another 7"+ of rainfall on Tuesday and Tuesday night. With an additional 10" possible locally, and the 00z HREF indicating a 90% chance of exceeding the 100 year recurrence interval, coordinated with the GSP/Greer SC forecast office to issue a High Risk area covering from the vicinity of Asheville NC southwestward to near the SC/NC/GA border junction. This degree of rainfall could lead to landslides/slope failures. The risk of land slips as well as scattered to numerous flash flood events extends across the Moderate Risk area encompassing terrain of northeast GA, northwest SC, and the remainder of western NC. A broad area of 4-8" is expected. A broader Slight Risk encompasses where rain bands could set up across the FL Big Bend early and SC during the morning/afternoon as well as areas which have received 200-400% of their two week average rainfall near the Fall Line in VA and MD, and includes the D.C. area. Impacts across PA and NY should be mitigated by below average rainfall over the past couple of weeks. I do not like the sound of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 It's not often that we have a tornado watch in the high country.Tornado WatchTORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021 TORNADO WATCH 444 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC021-023-045-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149-161-175-199- 172300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0444.210817T1440Z-210817T2300Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUNCOMBE BURKE CLEVELAND HAYWOOD HENDERSON JACKSON MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY $$ Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 We are absolutely getting hammered here the past hour and a half. No let up in sight. Streams, creeks, and rivers all filling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, Buckethead said: It's not often that we have a tornado watch in the high country. Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021 TORNADO WATCH 444 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC021-023-045-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149-161-175-199- 172300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0444.210817T1440Z-210817T2300Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUNCOMBE BURKE CLEVELAND HAYWOOD HENDERSON JACKSON MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY $$ Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk No kidding and we haven't even seen the worst of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Rainfall Totals Sun 10am - Tues 11am northwest Transylvania County Cold Creek - 10.59" Balsam Grove FD - 8.9" Rosman - 6.72" southern Jackson County Rock Bridge - 9.13" Wolf Creek (lake) - 8.31" Robinson Creek - 5.39" southern Haywood County Cruso - 7.64" Data: FIMAN/NC EM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said: Rainfall Totals Sun 10am - Tues 11am northwest Transylvania County Cold Creek - 10.59" Balsam Grove FD - 8.9" Rosman - 6.72" southern Jackson County Rock Bridge - 9.13" Wolf Creek (lake) - 8.31" Robinson Creek - 5.39" southern Haywood County Cruso - 7.64" Data: FIMAN/NC EM Very impressive to say the least. Whatever drought that may have crept in is looong gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Confirmed tornado in the foothills now. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 HRRR spitting out some ugly cells in a couple of hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said: Rainfall Totals Sun 10am - Tues 11am northwest Transylvania County Cold Creek - 10.59" Balsam Grove FD - 8.9" Rosman - 6.72" southern Jackson County Rock Bridge - 9.13" Wolf Creek (lake) - 8.31" Robinson Creek - 5.39" southern Haywood County Cruso - 7.64" Data: FIMAN/NC EM I’m up to 9.25 since sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Big storm moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Big storm moving through. Coming down pretty heavy here also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Confirmed tornado in the foothills now. Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkVideo floating around on Twitter also. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Anyone feel anything? https://www.wral.com/magnitude-2-7-earthquake-recorded-near-morganton/19829928/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Seems like the worst is about to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Anyone feel anything?https://www.wral.com/magnitude-2-7-earthquake-recorded-near-morganton/19829928/Nothing here. I’m about 45 mins south . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 It's absolutely piss pouring the rain. Thunder and lightning, street flooding. Crazy how hard its raining. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Pouring rain in Candler area and street flooding everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Yeah we have rivers running through people's properties, streams are running over their banks, lots of street flooding and the drains cannot hold the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Is this weak rotation I see developing over Weaverville heading right at me?Esit: the cell dissipated. Whew. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Twice today 3 separate warnings have been up to the Watauga line at the same time. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Man this flooding is just as bad as Sunday nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Hearing reports of it getting pretty bad in Avery County. They've been pummeled the last couple hours. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Thinks have deteriorated greatly here. Roads are blocked off with flood up Bethel, cruso, and 19/23. Buses are stranded because we had a bridge wash away and we have several kids stranded at school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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