StormchaserChuck! Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 Correlation to next Winter? Maybe. Slight -AO signal. April 1-15 -NAO analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Correlation to next Winter? Maybe. Slight -AO signal. April 1-15 -NAO analogs. Who cares if there is a - AO. Give me a + PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2021 Author Share Posted April 4, 2021 2 hours ago, frd said: Who cares if there is a - AO. Give me a + PNA. -AO historically has the highest correlation to above avg snow in DC. This past winter was a fail. Simply no cold air. It may be a fluke, or a sign of things to come. Imo it was mostly Nina related. I may feel differently if in the next few years, we have a moderate Nino and predominant -AO/NAO winter, and end up with below average snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: -AO historically has the highest correlation to above avg snow in DC. This past winter was a fail. Simply no cold air. It may be a fluke, or a sign of things to come. Imo it was mostly Nina related. I may feel differently if in the next few years, we have a moderate Nino and predominant -AO/NAO winter, and end up with below average snow. It wasn’t a good pattern for cold. The entire Arctic was pretty much cut off. I know lack of cold was an issue for many but not everywhere. I think there was a time in late Feb where we had had only one all rain event since New Years. Some included no snow but did have some type of frozen. Only 5 times did we manage to hit a tenth of precip in Jan and finished almost all 1” below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It wasn’t a good pattern for cold. The entire Arctic was pretty much cut off. I know lack of cold was an issue for many but not everywhere. I think there was a time in late Feb where we had had only one all rain event since New Years. Some included no snow but did have some type of frozen. Only 5 times did we manage to hit a tenth of precip in Jan and finished almost all 1” below normal. I'm willing to take my chances with a negative AO any year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm willing to take my chances with a negative AO any year. Cool. I know I’m not the only one who thinks the Pacific is the primary driver. I’m not looking for big snows. But whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It wasn’t a good pattern for cold. The entire Arctic was pretty much cut off. I know lack of cold was an issue for many but not everywhere. I think there was a time in late Feb where we had had only one all rain event since New Years. Some included no snow but did have some type of frozen. Only 5 times did we manage to hit a tenth of precip in Jan and finished almost all 1” below normal. This here...so is this something to blame for the -AO not working? I kept hearing some of you mention the cold air "being on the other side of the globe"). What I'm trying to figure out is whether this was fluky or not (let's hope it was fluke and not climate) (Apologies if this has been discussed already--I'm just coming back in here...took a break for Lent!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 5, 2021 Author Share Posted April 5, 2021 The Pac jet was the primary culprit, blasting mild air into our source region. Something we have seen quite a bit over recent winters, and seems to be somewhat overwhelming the typical patterns associated with the ENSO state . Not sure I am totally sold on that yet as a new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: The Pac jet was the primary culprit, blasting mild air into our source region. Something we have seen quite a bit over recent winters, and seems to be somewhat overwhelming the typical patterns associated with the ENSO state . Not sure I am totally sold on that yet as a new normal. This. -EPO is still our most important factor wrt cold in the East (and quite frankly the CONUS as a whole), and from what I tell, Alaska being in a pretty significant cold spell since Mid Jan is a pretty good indicator that we will not have all that much cold available in the East. Just my $0.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 I hate cutoff lows. Day after day after dreary day of showers. This will put paid to any hope of a dry month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 19 hours ago, frd said: Who cares if there is a - AO. Give me a + PNA. I was going to say, in this global pattern yeah.. -AO can be pretty dry too. Even in Strong El Nino you would think STJ, but we might see something like 97-98 or 01-02 honestly. I think right now everything is pretty weak.. I would say Moderate El Nino/-QBO next winter would be interesting but it's week in the face of everything lol (Stratosphere warming could probably turn the PNA+ briefly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 Well that has to be a record. Talking SSW in April, 8 months before winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 QBO might be negative.. that is historically awesome with El Nino. (might be random in these new times) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 5, 2021 Author Share Posted April 5, 2021 Sounds great. Mount Holly AFD- The long term period will be characterized by a long duration onshore flow due to the positioning of the high to our north and low to our south. Given the onshore flow and the likelihood of clouds and/or precipitation cooler temperatures are expected with Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s (with even cooler temperatures likely near the immediate coast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 One heck of a -NAO now, wonder if we'll get snow Haven't had this look in the Pacific since December...384hr GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Sounds great. Mount Holly AFD- The long term period will be characterized by a long duration onshore flow due to the positioning of the high to our north and low to our south. Given the onshore flow and the likelihood of clouds and/or precipitation cooler temperatures are expected with Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s (with even cooler temperatures likely near the immediate coast). While not idea, the LR seems void of both unusually cold and warm weather. That’s a plus, IMO. If we can make it to May without any crazy heat, sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 850s look good just need to work on the surface and fill the precip in a bit . 10 days to do it. Hopefully you connect soon. Your batting avg kinda sucks 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 6, 2021 Author Share Posted April 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, snowfan said: Hopefully you connect soon. Your batting avg kinda sucks Remember Sam Horn? Never a fastball he wouldn't swing at. But every once in awhile.. lightning in a bottle. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 16 hours ago, CAPE said: Sounds great. Mount Holly AFD- The long term period will be characterized by a long duration onshore flow due to the positioning of the high to our north and low to our south. Given the onshore flow and the likelihood of clouds and/or precipitation cooler temperatures are expected with Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s (with even cooler temperatures likely near the immediate coast). Yeah, I was afraid of this general look/forecast. Fortunately this week is playing out ok so far but by end of week/weekend and next week it may just be that damp and dreary type of pattern. Hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 6, 2021 Author Share Posted April 6, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, I was afraid of this general look/forecast. Fortunately this week is playing out ok so far but by end of week/weekend and next week it may just be that damp and dreary type of pattern. Hopefully not Timing looks bad. I have some outside projects I started and was hoping for a nice weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 We kind of have a +PNA now too. I wonder if this will trend colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: He hit 2 Homers on opening day in 1990 . I was there. And he hit 1 more in the next 2,000 at bats lol. Our dad took my brother and I to so many O's games between roughly 82- 91 at Memorial Stadium. Probably 300 or so. Back then low income peeps like me could actually go to games regularly and my dirt poor friends could even afford to go occasionally. Nowadays to take your family of 4 is like a $200 spot minimum. Ravens game more like a $400 spot I still think going to a baseball game is reasonable...Yeah if you're gonna splurge on all of the concessions then you will rack it up quick. But tickets you can still get for like $10-20...or you could before covid anyway. I still think its alright when you compare it to other things like the aquarium, zoo, amusement park. Hell even the movies....now football games, yes outrageous, especially the popular games/teams but part of it is because theres only 8 home games. Not 81... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We kind of have a +PNA now too. I wonder if this will trend colder Agreed. I think this is trending to a DC-BOS snowstorm, possible blizzard conditions.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 This is nice But look at how the -PNA builds in (Since Jan 1- April 18 we are going to have the most -PNA on record for the time period!) This is my forecast for next Winter, El Nino or not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 Sorry @nj2va... from the morning LWX AFD As we continue into the beginning and middle portions of next week, conditions still appear to remain unsettled with most cloudy skies likely and chances for periodic showers. Guidance shows temperatures remaining near climatological norms throughout the long term. However, given the pattern, would not be surprised if temperatures actually verify cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 Sweet! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Sweet! Figures I took off that weekend to maybe go to the beach or something...inside brewery tour it is I guess lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 9, 2021 Author Share Posted April 9, 2021 That's not an h5 look you see too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: That's not an h5 look you see too often. Big time warmth under the block over Eastern Canada , very anomalous patter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 Given the dire predictions about a week or more of 50s and an east wind - have been pleasantly surprised to note the temps in the 10-day have remained forecast in the 60s instead. Would be quite pleased with that outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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