April Discobs 2021

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ok I’m ready for fall

[George BM]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok I’m ready for fall

Fall? Not winter? 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

So I went from frost to 90 in four days. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

49 minutes ago, George BM said:

Fall? Not winter? 

Nah, I want 6 months of fall

[frd]

7 hours ago, mattie g said:

At the center of our solar system.

You sure?

Ask Mulder, you might be surprised 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nah, I want 6 months of fall

You already get that. It’s called October through March  

[Baltimorewx]

Definitely a summer evening tonight. Had to kick the AC on. Just too warm on the 3rd floor of a townhome lol

[Chris78]

Too darn hot for April. Give me 60s/70s for the next 4 weeks

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Too darn hot for April. Give me 60s/70s for the next 4 weeks

Its basically early May lol

[Chris78]

 @yodaThe average high temperature for Hgr is like 66 for today. It was almost 90 today!

A bit warm for my liking lol.

[yoda]

Yay wind!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

MDZ003>006-008-011-014-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-505>508-WVZ051>053-
291600-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-
Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton,
Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia,
Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal,
Berryville, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling,
Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town,
and Shepherdstown
359 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and
  northern Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia
  and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong wind gusts will arrive behind the
  cold front on Friday morning, and again Friday evening and into
  the night as a powerful system crosses the region.

[CAPE]

Yes we do wind. It almost never underperforms. Latest discussion from Mount Holly-

West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as the day progresses, especially into the evening hours, as the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels through at least the early evening. Additionally, the vorticity maxima will cause tropopause folding down to around the 500 mb level, which is often indicative of very steep lapse rates. These factors are expected to preclude any question regarding the unfavorable timing of maximum wind fields during the evening hours (less of the typical diurnal mixing). Just about all of the 00Z guidance suite indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-50+ kts, which are likely to mix to the ground in the form of frequent wind gusts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts increasing to the 45-55+ mph range during the evening hours. Sustained winds are forecast to peak in the 30-35 mph range near the coasts and in the higher terrain north and west. At this juncture, Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts (45 mph or greater) appear likely, especially from around 2 PM Friday through around 2 AM Saturday across most of the area. We`ve issued a High Wind Watch for this period given the potential for wind gusts of 55- 60 mph for a few hours, mainly during the evening (7 PM through midnight). Additionally, potential exists for greater impacts than a typical solid Wind Advisory event owing to the green up and foliage on most trees in the area. Falling trees or tree limbs may bring down power lines, potentially resulting in scattered power outages. This will be a very long duration (~12 hr) high wind event, with potentially significant impacts to the area.

[mappy]

Windy days never fail. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Windy days never fail. 

Wind, humidity and heat are our specialty. They never under perform.

[H2O]

21 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Wind, humidity and heat are our specialty. They never under perform.

and drought

[nj2va]

13 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

So I went from frost to 90 in four days. 

Welcome to the mid Atlantic!  It’ll be in the 40s Friday night/Saturday morning.

[BlizzardNole]

13 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

So I went from frost to 90 in four days. 

In the 1980s in Calvert, we were in the mid-90s one day in April and had snow squalls that whitened the grass four days later.  Our HS had a group of exchange students from Sicily at the time and they thought it was nuts.

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yes we do wind. It almost never underperforms. Latest discussion from Mount Holly-

West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as the day progresses, especially into the evening hours, as the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels through at least the early evening. Additionally, the vorticity maxima will cause tropopause folding down to around the 500 mb level, which is often indicative of very steep lapse rates. These factors are expected to preclude any question regarding the unfavorable timing of maximum wind fields during the evening hours (less of the typical diurnal mixing). Just about all of the 00Z guidance suite indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-50+ kts, which are likely to mix to the ground in the form of frequent wind gusts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts increasing to the 45-55+ mph range during the evening hours. Sustained winds are forecast to peak in the 30-35 mph range near the coasts and in the higher terrain north and west. At this juncture, Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts (45 mph or greater) appear likely, especially from around 2 PM Friday through around 2 AM Saturday across most of the area. We`ve issued a High Wind Watch for this period given the potential for wind gusts of 55- 60 mph for a few hours, mainly during the evening (7 PM through midnight). Additionally, potential exists for greater impacts than a typical solid Wind Advisory event owing to the green up and foliage on most trees in the area. Falling trees or tree limbs may bring down power lines, potentially resulting in scattered power outages. This will be a very long duration (~12 hr) high wind event, with potentially significant impacts to the area.

Yep,  we do wind rather well in these parts,  and this event has the potential to be a memorable one, due to the long duration as mentioned in the AFD and the peak gusts. Only savings grace is that the ground is not saturated for once.   

[GramaxRefugee]

67f ; DP 65 

Summer wx. 

[Stormfly]

I have to say I enjoy wind.  Most of the events seem to fall short or bust.  I have been doing some (tree) prep work and it looks like the timing of this if it verifies couldn't be worse!  And like the guy that has the snowblower in the shop, that's when the big snow goes bigger so look out!  These pines have strong stumps/roots but they like to break high up making things more dangerous and tedious to clean up.  At least they're nowhere near people or power lines.

[vastateofmind]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Welcome to the mid Atlantic!  It’ll be in the 40s Friday night/Saturday morning.

That makes for perfect fire pit wx...minus the wind, of course.   
And BTW, good luck with the big move this week!!   

[GATECH]

Heavy wind with most of the trees nearing full leaf out....this should interesting.

[Mrs.J]

17 hours ago, mattie g said:

@Mrs.J and @WxUSAF...

How much solar do you get in the winter? You'd have to get some, even with the low sun angle, right?

What percentage of your energy use in the winter comes from solar?

 

17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Minimum is like 300-400 kWh in December and January. Ends up being like 15-20% of total power. Our system doesn’t generate enough to run off credits in the darker months. We end up getting about 6-7 months of the year off the panels more or less. Winter is our biggest power usage from heating, way more then A/C in the summer.

Yea like @WxUSAF said winter is lower. This winter in particular. Our system covers 80% of the household power. Our solar benefits start around Mar and go through Oct/Nov. We live in a TH that the front faces E and the back W. We have a lot of windows, hence the model called the Brightwell. As soon as the DST changes in the spring lights are not on in the house till around 8pm. Also run our AC less than most people. 

[yoda]

Yay we got added in!

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

DCZ001-MDZ013-VAZ053-054-300245-
/O.EXA.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill,
Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Potential for west-northwesterly wind gusts of 60 mph.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, Prince Georges County in
  Maryland, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties in Virginia including
  the independent cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest wind may occur in two waves:
  one Friday afternoon, and a second Friday evening.

[yoda]

@nj2va approves!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-300245-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.210501T0400Z-210501T1300Z/
Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville,
Hightown, Bayard, Mount Storm, and Riverton
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western
  Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western
  Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

[yoda]

No thanks LWX re wind from their afternoon AFD

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure is expected to deepen steadily near New England
Friday, and a secondary cold front will follow Friday afternoon
and evening. This will cause strengthening winds across the
region, with a rather notable late season non-convective wind
event appearing increasingly likely.

The latest guidance shows steep lapse rates from the surface
into the mid levels of the atmosphere, where winds of well over
60 mph are forecast (about 5000 to 10000 feet above the ground).
While not all of this wind is unlikely to consistently mix all
the way to the ground, gusts of 50 to 55 mph are still likely
at the surface, with peak gusts to around 60 mph possible. The
highest wind may come in two waves: one with peak diurnal mixing
generally between 1 PM and 5 PM behind the secondary cold front,
and another with the mid-level trough axis during the evening.

The wind probably won`t die down more appreciably until very
late Friday night or early Saturday morning. The extended period
of wind and leafed-up trees may lead to more widespread power
outages and tree damage.

[CAPE]

Mount Holly is still bullish on the damaging wind potential as well.

A strong weather system remains on track to affect the region on Friday. We are expecting very windy conditions from early Friday afternoon through much of Friday night. Gusts over 45 mph are likely, and gusts to near 60 mph are possible. Scattered instances of downed trees and power outages are also expected, especially given many trees are now bearing leaves. This will likely be an impactful event. Very little change in the forecast philosophy this cycle. A cold front will be offshore by Friday morning. A strong shortwave trough and associated vort max will rotate through the region during the afternoon hours, which will also send a reinforcing cold front through. This is a dynamically impressive system, with very strong height falls expected in the local area tomorrow afternoon and evening. The approaching shortwave and good jet dynamics will also yield rapid intensification of low pressure departing into the Canadian maritimes, with its pressure dropping near to below 980 mb. At the same time, high pressure will be moving into the Great Lakes, which combined with the deepening low to the northeast will create a very strong pressure gradient, maximized over the mid-Atlantic.

[CAPE]

Pretty impressive looking vorticity lobe at h5, and pressure gradient between the deepening low moving off the Maritimes and high pressure building in from the NW.

 

[WxUSAF]

Boomers for @mappy, @losetoa6, and @psuhoffman? Hoping the southern end sweeps over me.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Boomers for @mappy, @losetoa6, and @psuhoffman? Hoping the southern end sweeps over me.

Ahem.