ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Frigid December look. Torch February though there would be some cold lurking close on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 seasonal models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: seasonal models lol Fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 nothing beats 2017-18 for a cold Dec-Jan and a torch Feb...if we do get another la nina this year there have been more than a few with a torchy February after a cold Dec-Jan... 2010-11... 2008-09... 1983-84... 1975-76... 1970-71... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: nothing beats 2017-18 for a cold Dec-Jan and a torch Feb...if we do get another la nina this year there have been more than a few with a torchy February after a cold Dec-Jan... 2010-11... 2008-09... 1983-84... 1975-76... 1970-71... Nothing except for 1980-81. Feb. 2018 in NYC was 8.69° milder than the Dec/Jan average, while Feb. 1981 was 9.94° milder than Dec/Jan. At CAR those respective mild-ups were 6.58 in 2018 and 20.25 in 1981. Feb. 1981 was 22° milder than Jan. 1981, and caused the ice to run on the Allagash and St. John Rivers, which was (and is) unprecedented for February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 41 minutes ago, tamarack said: Nothing except for 1980-81. Feb. 2018 in NYC was 8.69° milder than the Dec/Jan average, while Feb. 1981 was 9.94° milder than Dec/Jan. At CAR those respective mild-ups were 6.58 in 2018 and 20.25 in 1981. Feb. 1981 was 22° milder than Jan. 1981, and caused the ice to run on the Allagash and St. John Rivers, which was (and is) unprecedented for February. February 1981 might one of the ugliest patterns you'll ever see for winter wx across the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Could use a little help from the Arctic in February. But, that's not uncommon in Nina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 On 9/7/2021 at 9:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: Feb 1994? 93-94 is what came to mind with respect to Georgie-porgie's Euro image. Pay back is gonna be a b*tch for the south of pike this year, me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Frigid December look. Torch February though there would be some cold lurking close on that. Sounds reasonable to me in a la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 93-94 is what came to mind with respect to Georgie-porgie's Euro image. Pay back is gonna be a b*tch for the south of pike this year, me thinks. Latitude > Elevation type season. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Latitude > Elevation type season. We take. Often can be the case when there is a strong cold source just to the north. But it doesn't always happen within New England itself. Saw it in the '93-'94 winter where the best snowfall anomalies were prob along and just south of the pike into N CT/RI and SE MA. Though things would likely be shifted a little north if another '94 pattern happened today given that we were still in a post-Pinatubo world back then with an obscenely crushing Arctic PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 I'll take a front ended winter over the opposite. Its nice to have snow on the ground at night at the darkest time of year. NDJ cold...excellent...FMA milder...OK days are getting longer so let spring be in the air! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Often can be the case when there is a strong cold source just to the north. But it doesn't always happen within New England itself. Saw it in the '93-'94 winter where the best snowfall anomalies were prob along and just south of the pike into N CT/RI and SE MA. Though things would likely be shifted a little north if another '94 pattern happened today given that we were still in a post-Pinatubo world back then with an obscenely crushing Arctic PV. Considering what happened last year, I would be absolutely floored if we got south of piked again this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Considering what happened last year, I would be absolutely floored if we got south of piked again this season. Last year was mostly stale airmasses and we had that weird Nino-esque pattern for a while. OF course the one time we got a legit arctic airmass, that zone just N of the pike got the mini-screwjie in the Dec 17th storm. But yeah, if this is going to be more of a gradient pattern that is classic for La Nina, then it would be surprising to see another southern seasonal jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Last year was mostly stale airmasses and we had that weird Nino-esque pattern for a while. OF course the one time we got a legit arctic airmass, that zone just N of the pike got the mini-screwjie in the Dec 17th storm. But yeah, if this is going to be more of a gradient pattern that is classic for La Nina, then it would be surprising to see another southern seasonal jackpot. I'd like to place an order for a repeat of '07-08, with Feb '15 for dessert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 12 hours ago, forkyfork said: seasonal models lol how did this work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: how did this work out Totally whiffed on the all the NAO/AO blocking up north....we never really got a SE ridge either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: I'd like to place an order for a repeat of '07-08, with Feb '15 for dessert. I'd kill for 2007-2008. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: February 1981 might one of the ugliest patterns you'll ever see for winter wx across the CONUS. I left out 1980-81 because it was a weak negative...the AO went negative in early March when NYC got an 8" snowfall...2018 and 1984 had a big winter comeback...1976 had a little March comeback when NYC had its biggest snowfall of the season...the only year without the biggest snowfall of the season jn March was 2011... some other torchy February's after a cold Dec and Jan with various enso... 1955-56...big March in 56... 1960-61... 2000-01... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Last year was mostly stale airmasses and we had that weird Nino-esque pattern for a while. OF course the one time we got a legit arctic airmass, that zone just N of the pike got the mini-screwjie in the Dec 17th storm. But yeah, if this is going to be more of a gradient pattern that is classic for La Nina, then it would be surprising to see another southern seasonal jackpot. My argument is that the gradient (shear zone) resulting from the discord between a favorable arctic and hostile pacific set up perfectly for SW NE and the tri state region, and awfully for Maine....ie, waves just got shredded and attenuated upon entry into NE. I think a zone from me into Maine would have done better with either a little less blocking, or a better Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: how did this work out On par with your July forecast 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Considering what happened last year, I would be absolutely floored if we got south of piked again this season. Ray meet floor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Totally whiffed on the all the NAO/AO blocking up north....we never really got a SE ridge either. so it missed the biggest pattern feature of the winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: so it missed the biggest pattern feature of the winter. lol Yeah there is no way to defend that Euro forecast last September....it was horrendous. The only consolation was that basically zero seasonal models were able to pick up that type of Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: February 1981 might one of the ugliest patterns you'll ever see for winter wx across the CONUS. Thru 1980 (42 years) the mildest Feb temp at CAR was 49. In Feb 1981 they tied it twice and added 7 days with highs 50-53. (Current record there is 59 on 2/20/94. Not only did warmth come a month after CAR's coldest month on record (-0.7), but Feb was about 6° BN despite being +35 on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Let's go Feb '81! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Thru 1980 (42 years) the mildest Feb temp at CAR was 49. In Feb 1981 they tied it twice and added 7 days with highs 50-53. (Current record there is 59 on 2/20/94. Not only did warmth come a month after CAR's coldest month on record (-0.7), but Feb was about 6° BN despite being +35 on the 20th. I think Boston had months when everything that fell from the sky was snow...But I know of only two for NYC...January 1981 and February 1978...From Christmas to early February 1980-81 was one of the coldest on record...snowfall in NYC was below average because of being very dry...Then February does a complete U turn...March was very dry too but NYC did get a snowstorm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Winter 1980-81 is Farmington co-op's least snowy with 43.0", one inch less than the winter before. Average there is 90". The double ratters followed 5 straight winters with 100"+, longest such run in the co-op's 128-year POR, and 1981-82 was back in triple digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 19 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: That look decent for December but not 2010-2011 like, all that red off the west coast scares me a bit. That tells me that there is a signal for a strong pacific jet as well as a powerful and energized Hadley cell. I don’t really know a lot of Hadley cells but based on what I do know they are not good. I would like to see the Pacific Ocean as a whole cool off to keep the Hadley cell in check. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think that’s a terrible look even with the rough February but it doesn’t scream epic winter, more like an average winter like last year, with the potential being capped due to the expansive Hadley cell. We have had 6 straight winters with an expansive Hadley cell, and I’ll start getting excited for an epic winter when I see signs that the dominance of the Hadley cell this winter won’t be there like it was the last 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 6 hours ago, George001 said: That look decent for December but not 2010-2011 like, all that red off the west coast scares me a bit. That tells me that there is a signal for a strong pacific jet as well as a powerful and energized Hadley cell. I don’t really know a lot of Hadley cells but based on what I do know they are not good. I would like to see the Pacific Ocean as a whole cool off to keep the Hadley cell in check. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think that’s a terrible look even with the rough February but it doesn’t scream epic winter, more like an average winter like last year, with the potential being capped due to the expansive Hadley cell. We have had 6 straight winters with an expansive Hadley cell, and I’ll start getting excited for an epic winter when I see signs that the dominance of the Hadley cell this winter won’t be there like it was the last 6. 2010-11 had a 7 week winter. The 2nd half of December and January were great but winter died as February rolled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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