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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

nothing beats 2017-18 for a cold Dec-Jan and a torch Feb...if we do get another la nina this year there have been more than a few with a torchy February after a cold Dec-Jan...

2010-11...

2008-09...

1983-84...

1975-76...

1970-71...

Nothing except for 1980-81.  Feb. 2018 in NYC was 8.69° milder than the Dec/Jan average, while Feb. 1981 was 9.94° milder than Dec/Jan.  At CAR those respective mild-ups were 6.58 in 2018 and 20.25 in 1981.  Feb. 1981 was 22° milder than Jan. 1981, and caused the ice to run on the Allagash and St. John Rivers, which was (and is) unprecedented for February. 

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41 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nothing except for 1980-81.  Feb. 2018 in NYC was 8.69° milder than the Dec/Jan average, while Feb. 1981 was 9.94° milder than Dec/Jan.  At CAR those respective mild-ups were 6.58 in 2018 and 20.25 in 1981.  Feb. 1981 was 22° milder than Jan. 1981, and caused the ice to run on the Allagash and St. John Rivers, which was (and is) unprecedented for February. 

February 1981 might one of the ugliest patterns you'll ever see for winter wx across the CONUS.

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Latitude > Elevation type season. We take. 

Often can be the case when there is a strong cold source just to the north. But it doesn't always happen within New England itself. Saw it in the '93-'94 winter where the best snowfall anomalies were prob along and just south of the pike into N CT/RI and SE MA. Though things would likely be shifted a little north if another '94 pattern happened today given that we were still in a post-Pinatubo world back then with an obscenely crushing Arctic PV.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Often can be the case when there is a strong cold source just to the north. But it doesn't always happen within New England itself. Saw it in the '93-'94 winter where the best snowfall anomalies were prob along and just south of the pike into N CT/RI and SE MA. Though things would likely be shifted a little north if another '94 pattern happened today given that we were still in a post-Pinatubo world back then with an obscenely crushing Arctic PV.

Considering what happened last year, I would be absolutely floored if we got south of piked again this season.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Considering what happened last year, I would be absolutely floored if we got south of piked again this season.

Last year was mostly stale airmasses and we had that weird Nino-esque pattern for a while. OF course the one time we got a legit arctic airmass, that zone just N of the pike got the mini-screwjie in the Dec 17th storm.

But yeah, if this is going to be more of a gradient pattern that is classic for La Nina, then it would be surprising to see another southern seasonal jackpot.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last year was mostly stale airmasses and we had that weird Nino-esque pattern for a while. OF course the one time we got a legit arctic airmass, that zone just N of the pike got the mini-screwjie in the Dec 17th storm.

But yeah, if this is going to be more of a gradient pattern that is classic for La Nina, then it would be surprising to see another southern seasonal jackpot.

I'd like to place an order for a repeat of '07-08, with  Feb '15 for dessert.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

February 1981 might one of the ugliest patterns you'll ever see for winter wx across the CONUS.

I left out 1980-81 because it was a weak negative...the AO went negative in early March when NYC got an 8" snowfall...2018 and 1984 had a big winter comeback...1976 had a little March comeback when NYC had its biggest snowfall of the season...the only year without the biggest snowfall of the season jn March was 2011...

some other torchy February's after a cold Dec and Jan with various enso...

1955-56...big March in 56...

1960-61...

2000-01...

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46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last year was mostly stale airmasses and we had that weird Nino-esque pattern for a while. OF course the one time we got a legit arctic airmass, that zone just N of the pike got the mini-screwjie in the Dec 17th storm.

But yeah, if this is going to be more of a gradient pattern that is classic for La Nina, then it would be surprising to see another southern seasonal jackpot.

My argument is that the gradient (shear zone) resulting from the discord between a favorable arctic and hostile pacific set up perfectly for SW NE and the tri state region, and awfully for Maine....ie, waves just got shredded and attenuated upon entry into NE. I think a zone from me into Maine would have done better with either a little less blocking, or a better Pacific.

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16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so it missed the biggest pattern feature of the winter. lol

Yeah there is no way to defend that Euro forecast last September....it was horrendous. The only consolation was that basically zero seasonal models were able to pick up that type of Atlantic blocking.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

February 1981 might one of the ugliest patterns you'll ever see for winter wx across the CONUS.

Thru 1980 (42 years) the mildest Feb temp at CAR was 49.  In Feb 1981 they tied it twice and added 7 days with highs 50-53.  (Current record there is 59 on 2/20/94.  Not only did warmth come a month after CAR's coldest month on record (-0.7), but Feb was about 6° BN despite being +35 on the 20th.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Thru 1980 (42 years) the mildest Feb temp at CAR was 49.  In Feb 1981 they tied it twice and added 7 days with highs 50-53.  (Current record there is 59 on 2/20/94.  Not only did warmth come a month after CAR's coldest month on record (-0.7), but Feb was about 6° BN despite being +35 on the 20th.

I think Boston had months when everything that fell from the sky was snow...But I know of only two for NYC...January 1981 and February 1978...From Christmas to early February 1980-81 was one of the coldest on record...snowfall in NYC was below average because of being very dry...Then February does a complete U turn...March was very dry too but NYC did get a snowstorm...

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19 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

seas5_z500a_mon_noram_DEC2021 (1).png

seas5_z500a_mon_noram_FEB2022.png

That look decent for December but not 2010-2011 like, all that red off the west coast scares me a bit. That tells me that there is a signal for a strong pacific jet as well as a powerful and energized Hadley cell. I don’t really know a lot of Hadley cells but based on what I do know they are not good. I would like to see the Pacific Ocean as a whole cool off to keep the Hadley cell in check. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think that’s a terrible look even with the rough February but it doesn’t scream epic winter, more like an average winter like last year, with the potential being capped due to the expansive Hadley cell. We have had 6 straight winters with an expansive Hadley cell, and I’ll start getting excited for an epic winter when I see signs that the dominance of the Hadley cell this winter won’t be there like it was the last 6.

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6 hours ago, George001 said:

That look decent for December but not 2010-2011 like, all that red off the west coast scares me a bit. That tells me that there is a signal for a strong pacific jet as well as a powerful and energized Hadley cell. I don’t really know a lot of Hadley cells but based on what I do know they are not good. I would like to see the Pacific Ocean as a whole cool off to keep the Hadley cell in check. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think that’s a terrible look even with the rough February but it doesn’t scream epic winter, more like an average winter like last year, with the potential being capped due to the expansive Hadley cell. We have had 6 straight winters with an expansive Hadley cell, and I’ll start getting excited for an epic winter when I see signs that the dominance of the Hadley cell this winter won’t be there like it was the last 6.

2010-11 had a 7 week winter.   The 2nd half of December and January were great but winter died as February rolled.

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