Winter 2021-2022

[weathafella]

On 9/1/2021 at 6:37 AM, Ginx snewx said:

BombsAway and he works for the TSA ,lol

Amazingly I didn’t think of this but it’s classic!   

[MJO812]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/01/old-farmers-almanac-predicts-cold-winter/5665506001/

[rimetree]

Climate change: Arctic warming linked to colder winters - BBC News

Judah Cohen making the rounds again

[SnoSki14]

On 9/3/2021 at 1:42 PM, rimetree said:

Climate change: Arctic warming linked to colder winters - BBC News

Judah Cohen making the rounds again

Except we haven't seen colder winters at all, just the opposite in fact. 

We've seen more unusual cold spells and winter weather in various places but overall its been much warmer than normal.

[sebastiaan1973]

Seems to be a winter with a strong nothern Pacific high.

Positive NAO. So Western-Europe will experience a mild winter. At least according to EC-seasonal. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Seems to be a winter with a strong nothern Pacific high.

Positive NAO. So Western-Europe will experience a mild winter. At least according to EC-seasonal. 

Yikes that’s not a good look. That ridge in the northern Pacific Ocean is way too far west. It does look like there is a signal for a polar vortex event, but with the polar vortex intrusion being west like last year. North Atlantic blocking is also limited, which combined with the awful pacific would be a disaster. 

[George001]

Hopefully the strength of the La Niña continues to increase. The entire Pacific Ocean is too warm and we need a decent strength nina to cool it off, limiting the pacific Jets ability to strengthen. The good news is that in the most recent update of the cfsv2 model, there is much less spread than even just a couple weeks ago. This indicates that the picture of what the Enso state will look like in the winter is becoming more clear, with the cluster being narrowed from -.5 to -1.8/-2.0 to -.8 to -1.3, with the mean being right -1.1, a low end moderate. The subsurface also indicates that the structure of the la nina could shift from a western based Nina to a basin wide or even a more eastern based la nina. A high end weak or low end moderate basin wide or east based La Niña would be very favorable for New England blizzards, so hopefully the models are right about that.

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yikes that’s not a good look. That ridge in the northern Pacific Ocean is way too far west. It does look like there is a signal for a polar vortex event, but with the polar vortex intrusion being west like last year. North Atlantic blocking is also limited, which combined with the awful pacific would be a disaster. 

It could be a lot worse. There's hints of a -EPO and at least a neutral NAO. If the NAO ends up more negative then it wouldn't be bad at all.

[ORH_wxman]

41 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yikes that’s not a good look. That ridge in the northern Pacific Ocean is way too far west. It does look like there is a signal for a polar vortex event, but with the polar vortex intrusion being west like last year. North Atlantic blocking is also limited, which combined with the awful pacific would be a disaster. 

That’s actually a fairly cold look for New England. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Except we haven't seen colder winters at all, just the opposite in fact. 

We've seen more unusual cold spells and winter weather in various places but overall its been much warmer than normal.

You took the bate   ... heh, or technically you didn't, because you didn't read the article?

If that title of that article ... carefully sculpted to induce a mouse click or a thumb swipe reaction, were the whole thing, ...than yeah. 

But when one reads it, they intimate similarly, that it is in certain regions more specifically  ( It's not you - media is feckless with ethics. ) 

It's a stupid title.  CNN ... FOX ... BBC ...these "IMC" type media members of the general conglomerate, do that on purpose. They make some statement that is obviously outrageous... and it prays on people's reaction to open their articles.   There's an economic engine in doing that ..blah blah..

See how it works?  they are not wrong... but they are wrong - because that title is correct, winters are colder.  ...they just leave the following out of the title.

"This new study indicates that the warming in the Arctic is having a significant impact on winter weather in both North America and East Asia..."

Which makes it even dumber is that ... these regions may in fact have warming climates in their winters, but they are slower and less pronounced than in other areas.  So they leave the relativity of it out, too.  

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Yikes that’s not a good look. That ridge in the northern Pacific Ocean is way too far west. It does look like there is a signal for a polar vortex event, but with the polar vortex intrusion being west like last year. North Atlantic blocking is also limited, which combined with the awful pacific would be a disaster. 

That's actually an amazing look to me.   If one's bag is for a stormy-ass winter.  Holy shit! ..and there would be arctic outbreaks in that, too.

That's in the mean?  If that happens ( imagine pass tenths) it meant there were frequent cross-polar jet anomalies.  May have been flop over/PV split events, too.    And those cold arrive upon base-line baroclinic gradient that when in rest state is just waiting to be another CC attribution event case...

I'd also say/remind ... the HC shit is there.  That warm glow from the Iberian peninsula ...all the way around the Atlantic ..through the lower M/A, ...all the way to off the west coast is a non recessive geopotential anomaly.  I.e., ain't goin' no where.  That is the statically bloated HC.  But, over particularly the U.S. ... it would be 'compressed' ... which means, there'd be a tendency for fast velocities ... That can be pain in the ass for other reason - I guess cross the bridge, though. 

Also ..with the QBO in a favorable phase/projection... you kind of wonder if the Euro's AI engine is maybe influenced by that.  The negative phase correlates to a base-line negative Arctic Oscillation.    some out there in the wild wild word of winter weather prognostic arts... are using the La Nina ( west biased..) map-over to really amp the ante, but ...I still have miss-giving about either ENSO state's ability to force (as dependably) as they did 50 years ago  ... due to the HC expansion/ .. ongoing CC stuff.   

But, even NCEP has admitted in the autumn outlook for ensuing winters, more than a couple of times in recent decade, that the stochastic nature of the EPO-NAO drape of indexes makes them problematic to warm(cool) outlooks; they can subsume and become dominant in the NP-Lakes .. -NE latitudes across the continent, regardless of the intents and purposes of the honest forecaster lol.  So in short, I don't know if we need the map-over when you have three basic statisical packages lending to a cold winter.

Solar

Multi-decadal polar index neg mode

-QBO.   

The La Nina isn't zero modulator - no.  But, it only adds, more or less.

I dunno... Seasonal outlooks isn't my thing.  I don't typically do them, as I suck ..and don't feel I am right enough to be certain I wasn't lucky. But, I do engage with long lead event/threat assessment with some limited success that I don't believe is pure chance....   Anyway, I just think this winter has cold available to it, over our side of the hemisphere, as a pretty easy call.  Degree of extreme?   meh .. leave that up to others with more sack then me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s actually a fairly cold look for New England. 

Yea, I wasn't sure what he meant. It's not ideal, but there would be ample cold around with stout neg EPO

[George001]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s actually a fairly cold look for New England. 

It is? I thought the trough out west was bad. Even Metfan starts to panic when he sees a trough in the west. When Metfan is panicking that’s usually not a good sign, as like me and James (rip) he has snow goggles and tends to be too aggressive with his forecasts. My concern is that with the trough in the west and the strong pacific jet that the pattern would be really zonal, with ceiling being a 6-12 inch storm if everything lines up. I am looking for a severe winter with at least 3-4 massive blizzards like 2010-2011, 2014-2015, ect. 

[Mr. Kevin]

50 minutes ago, George001 said:

It is? I thought the trough out west was bad. Even Metfan starts to panic when he sees a trough in the west. When Metfan is panicking that’s usually not a good sign, as like me and James (rip) he has snow goggles and tends to be too aggressive with his forecasts. My concern is that with the trough in the west and the strong pacific jet that the pattern would be really zonal, with ceiling being a 6-12 inch storm if everything lines up. I am looking for a severe winter with at least 3-4 massive blizzards like 2010-2011, 2014-2015, ect. 

I'm no expert like most are on here, but the monthly maps should become more realistic as we get closer. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

It is? I thought the trough out west was bad. Even Metfan starts to panic when he sees a trough in the west. When Metfan is panicking that’s usually not a good sign, as like me and James (rip) he has snow goggles and tends to be too aggressive with his forecasts. My concern is that with the trough in the west and the strong pacific jet that the pattern would be really zonal, with ceiling being a 6-12 inch storm if everything lines up. I am looking for a severe winter with at least 3-4 massive blizzards like 2010-2011, 2014-2015, ect. 

Trough isn’t super ideal there but that is an active look with absolutely frigid cold in Canada and that H5 look means we’d likely be on the cold side of the boundaries more often than not. 

[raindancewx]

That look on the Euro is somewhat similar to at least one of the cold ENSO (non-La Nina) years in the 1960s. Can't remember if it's 1960-61, 1961-62, 1962-63, or 1967-68 but I think at least one of those is similar.

The warmth by Indonesia with another big IOD phase is not something I was looking at a few weeks ago.

[dmillz25]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trough isn’t super ideal there but that is an active look with absolutely frigid cold in Canada and that H5 look means we’d likely be on the cold side of the boundaries more often than not. 

Yeah looking at that I was thinking that’s not a horrible look. Looks better for you guys but not bad here in NY

[CoastalWx]

I'd hit that look. How are the other months? That's a gradient look to me and would be fairly active.  Yeah maybe the trough out west isn't a text book ideal look, but it's not digging into the Baja on the mean. Plus, you have higher heights over the arctic.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 hours ago, George001 said:

Yikes that’s not a good look. That ridge in the northern Pacific Ocean is way too far west. It does look like there is a signal for a polar vortex event, but with the polar vortex intrusion being west like last year. North Atlantic blocking is also limited, which combined with the awful pacific would be a disaster. 

Looks like a gradient look. Tons of chances and anything amped cuts . Looks real ...good for winter rainers on CP

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd hit that look. How are the other months? That's a gradient look to me and would be fairly active.  Yeah maybe the trough out west isn't a text book ideal look, but it's not digging into the Baja on the mean. Plus, you have higher heights over the arctic.

Feb 1994?

 

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 1994?

 

We take.

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We take.

Definitely lol

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 1994?

 

Yes please. There was a couple of good ones in there esp. that February storm we talked about a few months back.  For my locale at the time it was a monster.  The good winters started in 1993 we’ve been rolling more or less since.  I would sign up for that look all day long.  Cold air sourced and I am sure we will get some pna dips in there.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Yes please. There was a couple of good ones in there esp. that February storm we talked about a few months back.  For my locale at the time it was a monster.  The good winters started in 1993 we’ve been rolling more or less since.  I would sign up for that look all day long.  Cold air sourced and I am sure we will get some pna dips in there.  

Yeah the ECMWF seasonal look has a frigid Canada and we rarely get skunked when there's ample cold to tap into there. One of the few exceptions might be 1988-1989.

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 1994?

 

 

[weathafella]

Return of Leon to use Hadley juice to smash the 2 ahead of him?   Not my forecast but a boy can dream…

[mahk_webstah]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 1994?

 

Don’t tell Jerry

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Don’t tell Jerry

Read up a post.

[MJO812]

https://trib.al/qLv88SZ

[Ginx snewx]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd hit that look. How are the other months? That's a gradient look to me and would be fairly active.  Yeah maybe the trough out west isn't a text book ideal look, but it's not digging into the Baja on the mean. Plus, you have higher heights over the arctic.