snowman19 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Modoki la nina is not preferred for east coast weather fans....its the opposite of el nino, whereas modoki el nino is favorabl. However, modoki la nina doesn't seem quite as hostile as east-based el nino because the forcing is usually weaker. The moral of the story is that you always want the coolest anomalies in the eastern based regions because it tends to focus convection further west, all things being equal. I don’t think there are many analogs for this upcoming winter….weak Modoki La Niña, following a moderate Niña, -QBO, rapidly rising solar, -PDO. I remember a few years ago, HM wrote an article showing that a La Niña/-QBO combo results in a flat Aleutian ridge, conversely, a La Niña/+QBO combo results in a poleward Aleutian high. I don’t see this winter being an easy one to predict, it’s still extremely early though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Modoki la nina is not preferred for east coast weather fans....its the opposite of el nino, whereas modoki el nino is favorabl. However, modoki la nina doesn't seem quite as hostile as east-based el nino because the forcing is usually weaker. The moral of the story is that you always want the coolest anomalies in the eastern based regions because it tends to focus convection further west, all things being equal. Definitely something to watch, and is going to be a reason why how this winter plays out in my opinion will be determined by how much North Atlantic blocking we get. In 2015, we had little to no North Atlantic blocking, but had a west based El Niño, so the dominant storm track was farther south. This year we will likely have a west based La Niña like 2010-2011, which is a year that we did have severe North Atlantic blocking. The next year had no blocking whatsoever with again a west based Nina, and that winter sucked. I have noticed that the recent trends in the Enso region have moved away from my idea of a strong La Niña. Although it appears like your idea is going to correct about a weaker strength La Niña, what do you think about 2010-2011 analog? I was thinking it could still have some merit if the ONI of this La Niña can sneak into moderate territory due to the west based nature of the La Niña, stronger mei as well as other similar drivers like the increasing solar activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 On 8/20/2021 at 3:37 PM, George001 said: Definitely something to watch, and is going to be a reason why how this winter plays out in my opinion will be determined by how much North Atlantic blocking we get. In 2015, we had little to no North Atlantic blocking, but had a west based El Niño, so the dominant storm track was farther south. This year we will likely have a west based La Niña like 2010-2011, which is a year that we did have severe North Atlantic blocking. The next year had no blocking whatsoever with again a west based Nina, and that winter sucked. I have noticed that the recent trends in the Enso region have moved away from my idea of a strong La Niña. Although it appears like your idea is going to correct about a weaker strength La Niña, what do you think about 2010-2011 analog? I was thinking it could still have some merit if the ONI of this La Niña can sneak into moderate territory due to the west based nature of the La Niña, stronger mei as well as other similar drivers like the increasing solar activity. 2010-2011 is not an analog IMO. It came off a healthy El Niño the year before, remember us having a strong STJ early on that winter, atypical for a Niña, we are in a multi-year La Niña right now. I don’t remember what the solar cycle was doing in late 2010, the QBO was positive, the -PDO is the same so far but that’s about it. It also was not a Modoki Niña, it started east-based early on then moved west, which is a typical Niña progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: 2010-2011 is not an analog IMO. It came off a healthy El Niño the year before, remember us having a strong STJ early on that winter, atypical for a Niña, we are in a multi-year La Niña right now. I don’t remember what the solar cycle was doing in late 2010, the QBO was positive, the -PDO is the same so far but that’s about it. It also was not a Modoki Niña, it started east-based early on then moved west, which is a typical Niña progression In 2010-2011 the solar was on the lower side but on the rise like this year, and the geomagnetic activity was very low. This winter will be similar in that area but you bring up a good point about the Enso state of the previous winter. The enso state the previous winter in 2010 was strong El Niño, the previous enso state last year was moderate La Niña. That is the exact opposite which is not ideal for an analog. I have read on Isotherms blog, in the forecast for the 2010-2011 winter he mentioned the geomagnetic activity has a much stronger correlation with North Atlantic blocking than the QBO (Isotherm, if I misinterpreted or misunderstood what you wrote, feel free to correct this). I thought the QBO was more correlated with the polar vortex than north atlantic blocking, with positive QBO being correlated to lower chances of a severe polar vortex event. My understanding of the QBO and polar vortex is low so that may be an oversimplification, but that is what I got out of the reading I did on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 20 hours ago, George001 said: In 2010-2011 the solar was on the lower side but on the rise like this year, and the geomagnetic activity was very low. This winter will be similar in that area but you bring up a good point about the Enso state of the previous winter. The enso state the previous winter in 2010 was strong El Niño, the previous enso state last year was moderate La Niña. That is the exact opposite which is not ideal for an analog. I have read on Isotherms blog, in the forecast for the 2010-2011 winter he mentioned the geomagnetic activity has a much stronger correlation with North Atlantic blocking than the QBO (Isotherm, if I misinterpreted or misunderstood what you wrote, feel free to correct this). I thought the QBO was more correlated with the polar vortex than north atlantic blocking, with positive QBO being correlated to lower chances of a severe polar vortex event. My understanding of the QBO and polar vortex is low so that may be an oversimplification, but that is what I got out of the reading I did on it. Don’t really buy into the solar arguments we have had horrible mild winters during low solar periods. The people who were boasting low solar means cold and snowy winter got burned badly. IMO it’s on par with the whole Siberian snowcover/SAI index, epic fail after epic fail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Don’t really buy into the solar arguments we have had horrible mild winters during low solar periods. The people who were boasting low solar means cold and snowy winter got burned badly. IMO it’s on par with the whole Siberian snowcover/SAI index, epic fail after epic fail Its a tool that is more useful some seasons than others, like everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Glad to see we’re back to talking winter now that tropical season is out with a whimper lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: Glad to see we’re back to talking winter now that tropical season is out with a whimper lol. Tropical season isn't done lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Tropical season isn't done lol Def. agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/matching-tropical-surface-stratosphere.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Def. agree. Models have 2 gulf lows ahead and another one coming off Africa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: Don’t really buy into the solar arguments we have had horrible mild winters during low solar periods. The people who were boasting low solar means cold and snowy winter got burned badly. IMO it’s on par with the whole Siberian snowcover/SAI index, epic fail after epic fail True, It doesn’t mean good winter at all, but it increases the chances of North Atlantic blocking in my opinion. The issue is the entire pacific is just too warm, which fuels the pacific jet to strengthen rapidly. We have had North Atlantic blocking and had bad winters anyways several times. Sometimes blocking can be bad too if you have a moderate or stronger El Niño, then everything misses to the south like 2009-2010 (in general). I would rather see signs favorable for blocking with a La Niña coming up than an El Niño. In 2014-2015 if I remember correctly the solar activity was high, and we had little to no North Atlantic blocking that winter. Yet that was the snowiest winter on record in southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Re: Solar The literature suggests a lag of ~3 years for max effect. So that would put us in a decent enough spot seemingly. Just wanted to point that out. Not making any calls based on purely that, obviously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Nice to see this thread picking up, I know its a bit early, September next week! Just tired of high temps and dews..........so done with that sh-t! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Where is that guy from East Boston. Does he want to measure for Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Where is that guy from East Boston. Does he want to measure for Logan? @correnjim1 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 I am optimistic in general.....also helps that la nina no longer appears to be shaping up as modoki, per subsurface trends. This may help to focus forcing more westward out in the Pacific over the course of the cold season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 18 hours ago, CoastalWx said: @correnjim1 ?? I think he is a seasonal dude like me..says he was here Friday, but that may just have been due to Henri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think he is a seasonal dude like me..says he was here Friday, but that may just have been due to Henri. We may need help with Logan measuring again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We may need help with Logan measuring again lol. Too bad I don't live in the area, though I do work in Chelsea....maybe I could find my old Buick to do drove by roof measurements? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think he is a seasonal dude like me..says he was here Friday, but that may just have been due to Henri. You’re here all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re here all year Not really from like May to July...maybe a quick drive by now and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am optimistic in general.....also helps that la nina no longer appears to be shaping up as modoki, per subsurface trends. This may help to focus forcing more westward out in the Pacific over the course of the cold season. Optimistic is good, however, I hope we don't get another minor event like last October 30 or 31st, just seems winter goes down the shitter after those types of events........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We may need help with Logan measuring again lol. gosh, cant some weenie air traffic controller come down from the tower and do it or their snow operations center there? They probably want a stipend or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 hour ago, 512high said: gosh, cant some weenie air traffic controller come down from the tower and do it or their snow operations center there? They probably want a stipend or something. I would pay them a nominal feel to do it and end this reign of unusable snowfall data from KBOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I thought the BOS snow measurement has been fixed. The issue now is mainly the thermometer. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 5 hours ago, weathafella said: I thought the BOS snow measurement has been fixed. The issue now is mainly the thermometer. Am I missing something? I think the person doing it for the past year or two cannot do it this year. So we now face potential garbage BOS obs again...hopefully it doesn’t end up back at the water treatment plant halfway to the Flemish Cap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I wish they could train and observer at Logan. This is ridiculous. There’s options around, but not sure how this season shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 What about that poster bombs away who lives in Eastie and I think works for TSA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 7 hours ago, weathafella said: What about that poster bombs away who lives in Eastie and I think works for TSA? BombsAway and he works for the TSA ,lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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