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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Modoki la nina is not preferred for east coast weather fans....its the opposite of el nino, whereas modoki el nino is favorabl. However,  modoki la nina doesn't seem quite as hostile as east-based el nino because the forcing is usually weaker. The moral of the story is that you always want the coolest anomalies in the eastern based regions because it tends to focus convection further west, all things being equal.

I don’t think there are many analogs for this upcoming winter….weak Modoki La Niña, following a moderate Niña, -QBO, rapidly rising solar, -PDO. I remember a few years ago, HM wrote an article showing that a La Niña/-QBO combo results in a flat Aleutian ridge, conversely, a La Niña/+QBO combo results in a poleward Aleutian high. I don’t see this winter being an easy one to predict, it’s still extremely early though

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Modoki la nina is not preferred for east coast weather fans....its the opposite of el nino, whereas modoki el nino is favorabl. However,  modoki la nina doesn't seem quite as hostile as east-based el nino because the forcing is usually weaker. The moral of the story is that you always want the coolest anomalies in the eastern based regions because it tends to focus convection further west, all things being equal.

Definitely something to watch, and is going to be a reason why how this winter plays out in my opinion will be determined by how much North Atlantic blocking we get. In 2015, we had little to no North Atlantic blocking, but had a west based El Niño, so the dominant storm track was farther south. This year we will likely have a west based La Niña like 2010-2011, which is a year that we did have severe North Atlantic blocking. The next year had no blocking whatsoever with again a west based Nina, and that winter sucked. I have noticed that the recent trends in the Enso region have moved away from my idea of a strong La Niña. Although it appears like your idea is going to correct about a weaker strength La Niña, what do you think about 2010-2011 analog? I was thinking it could still have some merit if the ONI of this La Niña can sneak into moderate territory due to the west based nature of the La Niña, stronger mei as well as other similar drivers like the increasing solar activity. 

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On 8/20/2021 at 3:37 PM, George001 said:

Definitely something to watch, and is going to be a reason why how this winter plays out in my opinion will be determined by how much North Atlantic blocking we get. In 2015, we had little to no North Atlantic blocking, but had a west based El Niño, so the dominant storm track was farther south. This year we will likely have a west based La Niña like 2010-2011, which is a year that we did have severe North Atlantic blocking. The next year had no blocking whatsoever with again a west based Nina, and that winter sucked. I have noticed that the recent trends in the Enso region have moved away from my idea of a strong La Niña. Although it appears like your idea is going to correct about a weaker strength La Niña, what do you think about 2010-2011 analog? I was thinking it could still have some merit if the ONI of this La Niña can sneak into moderate territory due to the west based nature of the La Niña, stronger mei as well as other similar drivers like the increasing solar activity. 

2010-2011 is not an analog IMO. It came off a healthy El Niño the year before, remember us having a strong STJ early on that winter, atypical for a Niña, we are in a multi-year La Niña right now. I don’t remember what the solar cycle was doing in late 2010, the QBO was positive, the -PDO is the same so far but that’s about it. It also was not a Modoki Niña, it started east-based early on then moved west, which is a typical Niña progression

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7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

2010-2011 is not an analog IMO. It came off a healthy El Niño the year before, remember us having a strong STJ early on that winter, atypical for a Niña, we are in a multi-year La Niña right now. I don’t remember what the solar cycle was doing in late 2010, the QBO was positive, the -PDO is the same so far but that’s about it. It also was not a Modoki Niña, it started east-based early on then moved west, which is a typical Niña progression

In 2010-2011 the solar was on the lower side but on the rise like this year, and the geomagnetic activity was very low. This winter will be similar in that area but you bring up a good point about the Enso state of the previous winter. The enso state the previous winter in 2010 was strong El Niño, the previous enso state last year was moderate La Niña. That is the exact opposite which is not ideal for an analog. I have read on Isotherms blog, in the forecast for the 2010-2011 winter he mentioned the geomagnetic activity has a much stronger correlation with North Atlantic blocking than the QBO (Isotherm, if I misinterpreted or misunderstood what you wrote, feel free to correct this). I thought the QBO was more correlated with the polar vortex than north atlantic blocking, with positive QBO being correlated to lower chances of a severe polar vortex event. My understanding of the QBO and polar vortex is low so that may be an oversimplification, but that is what I got out of the reading I did on it.

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20 hours ago, George001 said:

In 2010-2011 the solar was on the lower side but on the rise like this year, and the geomagnetic activity was very low. This winter will be similar in that area but you bring up a good point about the Enso state of the previous winter. The enso state the previous winter in 2010 was strong El Niño, the previous enso state last year was moderate La Niña. That is the exact opposite which is not ideal for an analog. I have read on Isotherms blog, in the forecast for the 2010-2011 winter he mentioned the geomagnetic activity has a much stronger correlation with North Atlantic blocking than the QBO (Isotherm, if I misinterpreted or misunderstood what you wrote, feel free to correct this). I thought the QBO was more correlated with the polar vortex than north atlantic blocking, with positive QBO being correlated to lower chances of a severe polar vortex event. My understanding of the QBO and polar vortex is low so that may be an oversimplification, but that is what I got out of the reading I did on it.

Don’t really buy into the solar arguments we have had horrible mild winters during low solar periods. The people who were boasting low solar means cold and snowy winter got burned badly. IMO it’s on par with the whole Siberian snowcover/SAI index, epic fail after epic fail 

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16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t really buy into the solar arguments we have had horrible mild winters during low solar periods. The people who were boasting low solar means cold and snowy winter got burned badly. IMO it’s on par with the whole Siberian snowcover/SAI index, epic fail after epic fail 

Its a tool that is more useful some seasons than others, like everything else.

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13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t really buy into the solar arguments we have had horrible mild winters during low solar periods. The people who were boasting low solar means cold and snowy winter got burned badly. IMO it’s on par with the whole Siberian snowcover/SAI index, epic fail after epic fail 

True, It doesn’t mean good winter at all, but it increases the chances of North Atlantic blocking in my opinion. The issue is the entire pacific is just too warm, which fuels the pacific jet to strengthen rapidly. We have had North Atlantic blocking and had bad winters anyways several times. Sometimes blocking can be bad too if you have a moderate or stronger El Niño, then everything misses to the south like 2009-2010 (in general). I would rather see signs favorable for blocking with a La Niña coming up than an El Niño. In 2014-2015 if I remember correctly the solar activity was high, and we had little to no North Atlantic blocking that winter. Yet that was the snowiest winter on record in southern New England. 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am optimistic in general.....also helps that la nina no longer appears to be shaping up as modoki, per subsurface trends. This may help to focus forcing more westward out in the Pacific over the course of the cold season.

Optimistic is good, however, I hope we don't get another minor event like last October 30 or 31st, just seems winter goes down the shitter after those types of events........

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1 hour ago, 512high said:

gosh, cant some weenie air traffic controller come down from the tower and do it or their snow operations center there? They probably want a stipend or something.

I would pay them a nominal feel to do it and end this reign of unusable snowfall data from KBOS.

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5 hours ago, weathafella said:

I thought the BOS snow measurement has been fixed.   The issue now is mainly the thermometer.   Am I missing something?

I think the person doing it for the past year or two cannot do it this year. So we now face potential garbage BOS obs again...hopefully it doesn’t end up back at the water treatment plant halfway to the Flemish Cap. 

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