Winter 2021-2022

[Eduardo]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big PV disruptions are higher stakes...higher risk, higher reward. What is modeled on the EPS is actually a safer, higher percentage play with a lower ceiling and higher floor.

I never really thought about it that way, but that's spot on.  I only root for PV splits as Hail Mary's when all other hope seems lost.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I never really thought about it that way, but that's spot on.  I only root for PV splits as Hail Mary's when all other hope seems lost.

Well, I am speaking from a New England perspective....NYC is about there you may want to hope for the split lol..could go either way, there.

[Eduardo]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I am speaking from a New England perspective....NYC is about there you may want to hope for the split lol..could go either way, there.

I'm not quite there yet.  Still too early.  If things look like shiz in a month, then yes for sure.

[It's Always Sunny]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Also the polar vortex is climo. Just because it’s near the North Pole does not mean winter is doomed. I guess it’s how you define weaken, but those weakenings and splitting are not typically common, yet we still average the snow that we do. In Pacific we trust. 

This is what happens when The Weather Channel (and the media in general) refers to the Polar Vortex so loosely; it creates misconception. They have everyone looking up at 10mb when at 500mb and below is what actually produces most of the time.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

This is what happens when The Weather Channel (and the media in general) refers to the Polar Vortex so loosely; it creates misconception. They have everyone looking up at 10mb when at 500mb and below is what actually produces most of the time.

Yep. Just noticed your avatar. FTW!

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said:

This is what happens when The Weather Channel (and the media in general) refers to the Polar Vortex so loosely; it creates misconception. They have everyone looking up at 10mb when at 500mb and below is what actually produces most of the time.

But Polar Vortex sounds cool, and makes any boring winter forecast more exciting!

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

But Polar Vortex sounds cool, and makes any boring winter forecast more exciting!

And bomb cyclone, atmospheric river, supercell - all those catchy click-bait terms.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

And bomb cyclone, atmospheric river, supercell - all those catchy click-bait terms.

Supercell isn't really a part of those other 'baity' terms, though.

It's a got nomenclature in physical science for being a particular thunderstorm structure that is self-perpetuating ...organizing regions into outflow and unperturbed such that they are uninterrupted in in flowing unstable air into the updraft.   

Typical thunderstorms are an up-down ordeal that last less than an hour, while +CAPE converts to -CAPE ...and the latter washes out the instability.

"super" in the context of thunderstorm cells, prevents that 'washing' from happening.

But those other terms are the present era, unscrupulous news media sources word-smithing drama terms to engender ratings, yup -

[tamarack]

Picky, picky (even when it's right).  Newsies are always looking for eyeballs/clicks.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, tamarack said:

Picky, picky (even when it's right).  Newsies are always looking for eyeballs/clicks.

 

Well yeah I’ll give you that - they’re using it 

Also There was already a term for bomb cyclone; it’s called bombogenesis… But I don’t know maybe bomb cyclone has been adopted into the glossary

[StormchaserChuck!]

Have to keep this in mind.. in the last 4 months (Aug-Nov) we have run opposite of 2020 at a top 5 highest neg correlation since 1948. 

https://ibb.co/bdRxjqS

https://ibb.co/K7T7ns7

[StormchaserChuck!]

Through Dec 12th, perfect opposite correlation continues. 8a — ImgBB (ibb.co) (We have a strong -PNA/+NAO pattern coming up)

August-Dec12th, last year and this have such a high negative correlation, it's greater than any 2 5month consecutive periods since 1948. #1 as an opposite match since 1948, 2020 - 2021. I wonder if this will continue into the Winter...

[George001]

The Canadian guidance is quite ugly in the long range, with the cold air bottled up over the North Pole (likely due to the deepening polar vortex), and no North Atlantic blocking to be found. The European guidance is a little better due to a weaker pacific jet but still little to no North Atlantic blocking in early December. However, the MJO is expected to go into phases 7 and 8 mid December, which if the wave is strong enough could lead to a major pattern change. There are a few near term storm threats, but without North Atlantic blocking there isn’t much room for error and not really anything to stop them from running inland to our north and west, leading to rain in SNE. Hopefully the MJO shakes things up and leads to the development of North Atlantic blocking for late December.

[forkyfork]

On 11/22/2021 at 12:57 PM, forkyfork said:

my official forecast

bump

[forkyfork]

looking good. and i did it without writing a bunch of paragraphs 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looking good. and i did it without writing a bunch of paragraphs 

Wait - what was urs ?

Mine was like this...   

Bookending -NAO/-EPO tendencies, with hyper fast shearing flow in between... and patterns that only coincidentally look like La Nina when they do, but a 'blizzard' of posts running to the bank because they just couldn't wait to evidence it as ENSO-caused, when the real cause for the winter behavior is CC gradient destroying the previous climate dependencies...

So maybe a run-on sentence ... haha

[forkyfork]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait - what was urs ?

Mine was like this...   

Bookending -NAO/-EPO tendencies, with hyper fast shearing flow in between... and patterns that only coincidentally look like La Nina when they do, but a 'blizzard' of posts running to the bank because they just couldn't wait to evidence it as ENSO-caused, when the real cause for the winter behavior is CC gradient destroying the previous climate dependencies...

So maybe a run-on sentence ... haha

it was originally a joke but it's starting to look like at least december is toast. pdo, stratosphere, epo, nao... all horrible 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looking good. and i did it without writing a bunch of paragraphs 

Its November.

Sometimes I question whether your degree is just a bunch paragraphs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it was originally a joke but it's starting to look like at least december is toast. pdo, stratosphere, epo, nao... all horrible 

Longer range has been volatile. I'm not sure how you can cancel a month before it has began.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait - what was urs ?

Mine was like this...   

Bookending -NAO/-EPO tendencies, with hyper fast shearing flow in between... and patterns that only coincidentally look like La Nina when they do, but a 'blizzard' of posts running to the bank because they just couldn't wait to evidence it as ENSO-caused, when the real cause for the winter behavior is CC gradient destroying the previous climate dependencies...

So maybe a run-on sentence ... haha

John, despite any mitigating impact that HC expansion may have, I don't think that there is any doubt that this cold ENSO event is having its presence felt in the atmosphere. I agree RE last year's event, but this one, albeit rather paltry in terms of ONI, is very well coupled.

[Damage In Tolland]

Is Forky even a met?

[forkyfork]

the trends you want to see <3 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its November.

Sometimes I question whether your degree is just a bunch paragraphs.

What degree? He found a red tag in his halloween candy.

[forkyfork]

if i show you my degree the AO will magically go negative 

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if i show you my degree the AO will magically go negative 

How many did you have to send in to get both sets?

[forkyfork]

how many will get the PDO to rise?

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, despite any mitigating impact that HC expansion may have, I don't think that there is any doubt that this cold ENSO event is having its presence felt in the atmosphere. I agree RE last year's event, but this one, albeit rather paltry in terms of ONI, is very well coupled.

Oh I was being hyperbolic and snarky dude.  lol..  I mean, there's a some truth in dark comedy - but I wouldn't submit that to the AMS for publication either.

Yeah, I don't know about DJF this year as confidently as last, honestly.   For the Oct/November thus, I am seeing hallmarks in the hemisphere for more La Nina, agreed there - does it last?  mm

I think we are advantaged, thus far, because we are in the blurred distinction era between standard autumn and deeper winter.  In this space, the gradient of winter isn't maximized just yet.. so it's mitigation isn't happening.   There are evidences now - like literally this last two weeks --> - that the hemispheric velocity is increasing though. 

Once the latter truly envelops the hemisphere more fully, I wonder if that - again ... - is when the ENSO contribution begins to get damped/mask beneath the compression/velocity soaking.   It's simple theoretical Meteorology, which deals with wave mechanics in the atmosphere.  If the velocity in the ambience increases, that intrinsically changes the wave resonance... Well?  if that's true, we can't expect La Nina to 'force' the same way as it did when the velocities were more like mid-last century.  It just means these ENSO has to be contributory along a newer idea, hopefully statistically demoed at some point.

It is noted ... the 2nd year of cool ENSO's tend to drive better - again, the problem I have though, that was/is based upon a pre-HC expansion era...

Personal posits:  I've always thought that the HC would get in the way of the El Nino forcing, more so than the La Nina ( * believe you and I had this discussion last year in the main forum somewhere's)   ...the circulation of the expanding HC is - counter intuitively - weaker, not stronger.  Growth in the cell does not mean it is stronger in that sense. It's probably something more like the same mechanics, but spread out over a wider area, so it moves slower.  The wider HC band/slower circulation, isn't mine, btw way - it's in a growing bevy of accredited papers.  Anyway, if the ONI is in concert, that means that in spite of the HC, the circulation is still breaking down KW propagation allowing easterlies to dominate.  So that would be my suggestion - keep an eye on the ONI ...

I do think that at times the La Nina will present, but I think we will have other times when former gets in the way.  That's what I'm leaning.  Unfortunately, this is just a comment to the characterization of the flow/expectation ... I don't have a f'n clue what this will do to snow... ( although as we were hypothesizing in the other thread a while ago, the fast flow may shred wave structures, and rob lower tier events.   ...etc) ... I think storms will tend to move fast, and if we lost to weak waves we could make up in having more of them - there's that too.

We should also note, the HC expansion --> speeding up the hemisphere by ambient gradient, .... that's not all or nothing?  These are moving amounts, week to week and probably more like month to month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if i show you my degree the AO will magically go negative 

 

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how many will get the PDO to rise?

I'd take 2001-2001, 2011-2012 and 2019-2020 consecutively if it would bring substance to your posts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I was being hyperbolic and snarky dude.  lol..  I mean, there's a some truth in dark comedy - but I wouldn't submit that to the AMS for publication either.

Yeah, I don't know about DJF this year as confidently as last, honestly.   For the Oct/November thus, I am seeing hallmarks in the hemisphere for more La Nina, agreed there - does it last?  mm

I think we are advantaged, thus far, because we are in the blurred distinction era between standard autumn and deeper winter.  In this space, the gradient of winter isn't maximized just yet.. so it's mitigation isn't happening.   There are evidences now - like literally this last two weeks --> - that the hemispheric velocity is increasing though. 

Once the latter truly envelops the hemisphere more fully, I wonder if that - again ... - is when the ENSO contribution begins to get damped/mask beneath the compression/velocity soaking.   It's simple theoretical Meteorology, which deals with wave mechanics in the atmosphere.  If the velocity in the ambience increases, that intrinsically changes the wave resonance... Well?  if that's true, we can't expect La Nina to 'force' the same way as it did when the velocities were more like mid-last century.  It just means these ENSO has to be contributory along a newer idea, hopefully statistically demoed at some point.

It is noted ... the 2nd year of cool ENSO's tend to drive better - again, the problem I have though, that was/is based upon a pre-HC expansion era...

Personal posits:  I've always thought that the HC would get in the way of the El Nino forcing, more so than the La Nina ( * believe you and I had this discussion last year in the main forum somewhere's)   ...the circulation of the expanding HC is - counter intuitively - weaker, not stronger.  Growth in the cell does not mean it is stronger in that sense. It's probably something more like the same mechanics, but spread out over a wider area, so it moves slower.  The wider HC band/slower circulation, isn't mine, btw way - it's in a growing bevy of accredited papers.  Anyway, if the ONI is in concert, that means that in spite of the HC, the circulation is still breaking down KW propagation allowing easterlies to dominate.  So that would be my suggestion - keep an eye on the ONI ...

I do think that at times the La Nina will present, but I think we will have other times when former gets in the way.  That's what I'm leaning.  Unfortunately, this is just a comment to the characterization of the flow/expectation ... I don't have a f'n clue what this will do to snow... ( although as we were hypothesizing in the other thread a while ago, the fast flow may shred wave structures, and rob lower tier events.   ...etc) ... I think storms will tend to move fast, and if we lost to weak waves we could make up in having more of them - there's that too.

We should also note, the HC expansion --> speeding up the hemisphere by ambient gradient, .... that's not all or nothing?  These are moving amounts, week to week and probably more like month to month.

I do not debate the merits of what you are saying at all.....I just don't feel it has negated ENSO altogether, and I know you didn't suggest that. I do think it can with meager events, but not so much in strongly coupled events such as this.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not debate the merits of what you are saying at all.....I just don't feel it has negated ENSO altogether, and I know you didn't suggest that. I do think it can with meager events, but not so much in strongly coupled events such as this.

Cool .. but, as intimated in that  - I wonder if the 'strength' of coupling can persist.   Once  the compression maelstrom of the ensuing deeper cold season kicks in, that may alter the landscape a bit. 

I actually agree that the base-state right now appears as such - for now...