Winter 2021-2022

[uncle W]

Feb was the coldest snowiest month last winter in NYC...Some la nina winters are like that...NYC had three in the 1970's with February being the coldest snowiest month...72, 74, 75...granted the winters were not cold on average...only February and some years March too...Decembers were warmer than average including last year...

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, uncle W said:

Feb was the coldest snowiest month last winter in NYC...Some la nina winters are like that...NYC had three in the 1970's with February being the coldest snowiest month...72, 74, 75...granted the winters were not cold on average...only February and some years March too...Decembers were warmer than average including last year...

Last Feb really cooked for the NYC area.  Several sites in NW NJ recorded more snow that month than my Maine foothills locale had for the entire season.   

[Damage In Tolland]

On 11/17/2021 at 11:04 AM, weathafella said:

Piggy pile on Judah today 

Here’s why

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Hi Heights in the NAO region and a -60 height anomaly over us...does that really call for a torch alert?

[forkyfork]

On 11/17/2021 at 11:04 AM, weathafella said:

Piggy pile on Judah today 

omg, someone said something mean about winter. DESTROY HIM

[George001]

If the polar vortex is still deepening into January then I’ll give up on winter but there is still plenty of time.

[Great Snow 1717]

50 minutes ago, George001 said:

If the polar vortex is still deepening into January then I’ll give up on winter but there is still plenty of time.

...take a look at what the pattern has been doing for months.....

[MJO812]

Weeklies look good

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies look good

Pretty nice gradient pattern developing 2nd week of Dec

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

My Winter NAO N. Atlantic SST index came in at -0.25 for DJFM, last year it was -0.1 and there had been 34 straight Winter months of +NAO to that point, 10-4 since realization in 2005.  It's average SD is 0.54 so...

[weathafella]

23 hours ago, George001 said:

If the polar vortex is still deepening into January then I’ll give up on winter but there is still plenty of time.

The PV is not the same as strat necessarily.   Look at the pattern in the Pacific to determine the cold dump into our side of the hemisphere.   Look at the pattern in the Atlantic to determine our odds for cold storms.  We’ve had great winters with a consolidated strat vortex over the North Pole and vice versa.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 11/16/2021 at 4:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How often do we see huge signals dampen as they near?

...heh, like this -NAO is attempting to do, albeit nuanced -

[StormchaserChuck!]

In the subsurface, the La Nina is about dead. It's mostly warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure if you follow Griteater on twitter but what he tweeted yesterday is the most disturbing thing I’ve seen all fall. A severely positive EPO is the kiss of death for winter, even if you pop a -NAO/-AO all that would do is bring down and trap PAC junk air with the EPO floodgates wide open: 

 

This is our primary concern for winter IMO....if we have an awful December, then I think we are porked.

I still do not expect that, but it is a concern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm sure that broke your heart.

It seems worse for la nina than it is for el nino.

I did see that and actually quoted and commented on it. What I said was that it is the most disturbing piece of data yet fans of winter on the east coast, and is a viable concern. 2005-2006 is one of my main analogs, and I have 2011-2011 as a strong extratropical Pacific analog. That said, I am not yet imminently concerned. If December is awful even in New England, then sound the alarms.

 

[weatherwiz]

On 11/19/2021 at 12:36 AM, weathafella said:

The PV is not the same as strat necessarily.   Look at the pattern in the Pacific to determine the cold dump into our side of the hemisphere.   Look at the pattern in the Atlantic to determine our odds for cold storms.  We’ve had great winters with a consolidated strat vortex over the North Pole and vice versa.

Yup...great point. 

There isn't just a single PV...there's a tropospheric PV and a stratospheric PV and they aren't always coupled. Just b/c maybe the SPV isn't favorable doesn't mean we can't see cold/snowy patterns and just b/c the TPV isn't favorable doesn't mean we can't either. IMO anyways, the PV will hold much more weight and be a bigger influence when there is a greater coupling between the two. 

[weatherwiz]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty nice gradient pattern developing 2nd week of Dec

 

Can see it already...BTV pulls off 80-90'' this winter and BDL barely sniffs 30-35''. That's a crushing NNE look. 

Maybe with the lakes still warm we can get some re-developing clippers in NYE 2009 (was it 2009?) fashion. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty nice gradient pattern developing 2nd week of Dec

 

I would take that look in a heartbeat. Good look for my area. That is about the timing of when 12/08 started up. Second week of the month.

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would take that look in a heartbeat. Good look for my area. That is about the timing of when 12/08 started up. Second week of the month.

We actually had the ice storm that week....then a brief torch after the ice storm before things went crazy for a few days 12/19-12/21

[dryslot]

I'd sign for that, We will wait to see if it holds.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We actually had the ice storm that week....then a brief torch after the ice storm before things went crazy for a few days 12/19-12/21

That was a pretty remarkable storm. Still remember that like it was yesterday. Was pretty uneventful in West Hartford, but I was assisting the Ham Radio team at the time and holy crap...the period from like 10 PM - 6 AM flew by. The damage coming in from around ORH was non-stop. I think what goes unnoticed with that event too is they had a pretty damaging wind event across parts of RI into SE MA. Temps I think shot up into the 50's to around 60. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We actually had the ice storm that week....then a brief torch after the ice storm before things went crazy for a few days 12/19-12/21

And 12/22.  We were too far north for the 19-20 event but got 15.5" on 21-22, one of only 4 events in 23 winters here to meet blizzard criteria.  Was great fun driving my son to Farmington at storm's height for his 11-7 graveyard shift at Big Apple.  All he did that time was stock shelves and watch the snow - maybe 3 customers in 8 hours.

[forkyfork]

my official forecast

[George001]

I took a look at the recent model guidance and it is now deepening the polar vortex into late December. That is concerning for early winter, however we have seen positive signs with the La Niña, enso 3.4, 3, and 1.2 are now -1 or below, while enso 4 is -.7. The models also have the MJO going into phase 7, if we get an MJO wave into 7,8 and then 1 that will be very good for us. With the latest guidance I am less optimistic about December, but more optimistic about late Jan to March. The La Niña moved east based mid November, so assuming a 2-3 month lag that would mean we start reaping the benefits sometime in the late Jan timeframe until the end of winter. 
 

However due to the delayed polar vortex weakening and the the lag effect with the MJO, my optimism for December has declined. I would not be surprised to see us average 3-4 degrees above normal with little to no snow for the entire month of December (I hope I’m wrong, but it’s not looking good right now with the latest polar vortex trends). The polar vortex right now is consolidated over the North Pole, and that’s just not going to cut it. I like our chances better the second half of winter, when the signs are that the polar vortex will drastically weaken, and the east based La Niña pattern will take over. This should not only result in an increased chance of North Atlantic blocking late Jan to March, but it should also lead to less troughing out west. As a weenie it is quite demoralizing seeing the long range models forecasting a massive trough out west in early December, but I believe in the process. Our best winter months are January and February, so the silver lining here is we are really wasting shit climo with the strong polar vortex pattern currently in place. In 2-3 weeks, this winter will show its hand. If it’s going to suck, the polar vortex disruption will be delayed even more on the models, and they will show it deepening in January. On the other hand, if this is going to be a big winter, the signs for a major polar vortex displacement or split in early to mid January will only strengthen.

 

the path to a big winter (>75 inches in the Boston area) is still there, luck out and run into a nice storm or 2 in a bad pattern during December, then get hammered late Jan to early March. It’s a different path than I originally thought (I thought Feb would suck early on and Dec would be decent, now I have flipped), but it still exists. If anything the ceiling is higher since we are wasting Dec (shit climo 1st half especially) instead of Feb (peak climo).

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

I took a look at the recent model guidance and it is now deepening the polar vortex into late December. That is concerning for early winter, however we have seen positive signs with the La Niña, enso 3.4, 3, and 1.2 are now -1 or below, while enso 4 is -.7. The models also have the MJO going into phase 7, if we get an MJO wave into 7,8 and then 1 that will be very good for us. With the latest guidance I am less optimistic about December, but more optimistic about late Jan to March. The La Niña moved east based mid November, so assuming a 2-3 month lag that would mean we start reaping the benefits sometime in the late Jan timeframe until the end of winter. 
 

However due to the delayed polar vortex weakening and the the lag effect with the MJO, my optimism for December has declined. I would not be surprised to see us average 3-4 degrees above normal with little to no snow for the entire month of December (I hope I’m wrong, but it’s not looking good right now with the latest polar vortex trends). The polar vortex right now is consolidated over the North Pole, and that’s just not going to cut it. I like our chances better the second half of winter, when the signs are that the polar vortex will drastically weaken, and the east based La Niña pattern will take over. This should not only result in an increased chance of North Atlantic blocking late Jan to March, but it should also lead to less troughing out west. As a weenie it is quite demoralizing seeing the long range models forecasting a massive trough out west in early December, but I believe in the process. Our best winter months are January and February, so the silver lining here is we are really wasting shit climo with the strong polar vortex pattern currently in place. In 2-3 weeks, this winter will show its hand. If it’s going to suck, the polar vortex disruption will be delayed even more on the models, and they will show it deepening in January. On the other hand, if this is going to be a big winter, the signs for a major polar vortex displacement or split in early to mid January will only strengthen.

 

the path to a big winter (>75 inches in the Boston area) is still there, luck out and run into a nice storm or 2 in a bad pattern during December, then get hammered late Jan to early March. It’s a different path than I originally thought (I thought Feb would suck early on and Dec would be decent, now I have flipped), but it still exists. If anything the ceiling is higher since we are wasting Dec (shit climo 1st half especially) instead of Feb (peak climo).

You are reading way too much into that...its basin wide, as it has been all long. Its a bit east biased, sure, but not a huge deal...all ENSO regions into la nina territory. As far as December goes, you are pulling a Judah Cohen in that you are over reliant on the polar vortex in your quest to garner forecasting insight. Yes, the state of the vortex is correlated to our degree of winter weather, but its not an independent variable, like everything else in weather. This is the biggest mistake I see with respect to long range forecasting. We can still have a good winter month at our latitude with a reasonably potent vortex because there exists a plethora of other nuances to consider....ie, what is the orientation of the vortex and where is it placed? Is it ultra strong, as in seasons like 2011-2012, 2019-2020, or is it simply healthy? Its the latter this year and its been elongated and stretched onto our side of the globe.  Is the cryosphere allowed to generate in Canada? If there is a cold source nearby, where are going to see a gradient pattern, and I think we will.

December will end up fine for most of us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the reason Judah is a much better researcher than a forecaster, so don't fall into that trap.

[CoastalWx]

Also the polar vortex is climo. Just because it’s near the North Pole does not mean winter is doomed. I guess it’s how you define weaken, but those weakenings and splitting are not typically common, yet we still average the snow that we do. In Pacific we trust. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are reading way too much into that...its basin wide, as it has been all long. Its a bit east biased, sure, but not a huge deal...all ENSO regions into la nina territory. As far as December goes, you are pulling a Judah Cohen in that you are over reliant on the polar vortex in your quest to garner forecasting insight. Yes, the state of the vortex is correlated to our degree of winter weather, but its not an independent variable, like everything else in weather. This is the biggest mistake I see with respect to long range forecasting. We can still have a good winter month at our latitude with a reasonably potent vortex because there exists a plethora of other nuances to consider....ie, what is the orientation of the vortex and where is it placed? Is it ultra strong, as in seasons like 2011-2012, 2019-2020, or is it simply healthy? Its the latter this year and its been elongated and stretched onto our side of the globe.  Is the cryosphere allowed to generate in Canada? If there is a cold source nearby, where are going to see a gradient pattern, and I think we will.

December will end up fine for most of us.

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also the polar vortex is climo. Just because it’s near the North Pole does not mean winter is doomed. I guess it’s how you define weaken, but those weakenings and splitting are not typically common, yet we still average the snow that we do. In Pacific we trust. 

That is what I was getting at, but you articulated it better.

[NorEastermass128]

Also, we’re not guaranteed cold/snow when the PV is in a disrupted state. If it splits on the other side of the globe, we may miss out on the goods while Europe and/or Siberia get blasted. Nothing is black & white. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Also, we’re not guaranteed cold/snow when the PV is in a disrupted state. If it splits on the other side of the globe, we may miss out on the goods while Europe and/or Siberia get blasted. Nothing is black & white. 

Big PV disruptions are higher stakes...higher risk, higher reward. What is modeled on the EPS is actually a safer, higher percentage play with a lower ceiling and higher floor.