40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One final round of strengthening does not bother me in the slightest. I would be more concerned if it were becoming a modoki and remaining the same intensity. A marked drop that is relegated to the eastern zones is a recipe for a relatively fruitful la nina season for east coast winter enthusiasts. I will go to the grave swearing that Jan 2011 would not have been so epic if la nina were weaker....strong east based la nina and modoki el nino events are rare birds, and it's why seasons like 2010-2011, 1955-1956, 2002-2003 and 2009-10 are so exceptional. It's about the location of the forcing, and if it is well placed, then you want it to be a very prominent hemispheric driver. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: To demonstrate what a worthless waste of time it is to post weeklies past 15 days: New NOV 30 Old NOV 30 This is a splendid illustration of the value of researching a winter outlook and formulating your own ideology with respect to the evolution of the season...you don't lose your mind waffling with seasonal guidance. You win some and lose some, but the losses are very educational. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is a splendid illustration of the value of researching a winter outlook and formulating your own ideology with respect to the evolution of the season...you don't lose your mind waffling with seasonal guidance. You win some and lose some, but the losses are very educational. Is 1950-1951 an analog for you? This is the first year since 50-51 with no major tropical cyclones after September 26th globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Is 1950-1951 an analog for you? This is the first year since 50-51 with no major tropical cyclones after September 26th globally. I didn't really look at it because it wasn't technically a la nina, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it doesn't have some value as a potential analog. I also don't really factor tropical activity in much...its an after thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 18 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Is 1950-1951 an analog for you? This is the first year since 50-51 with no major tropical cyclones after September 26th globally. December was colder than average… rest of the winter was mild…Snowfall in nyc in 1950-51 was way below average…coldest temp and biggest snow was on 12/26 coinciding with the ao’s strongest negative…it was during a drier/colder time… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 23 hours ago, stadiumwave said: To demonstrate what a worthless waste of time it is to post weeklies past 15 days: New NOV 30 Old NOV 30 Those aren’t that different. In amplitude yes but the idea is similar to me. Further out leads tend to dampen amplitude so it’s not surprising that d15 is more amplified vs d19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Those aren’t that different. In amplitude yes but the idea is similar to me. Further out leads tend to dampen amplitude so it’s not surprising that d15 is more amplified vs d19. How often do we see huge signals dampen as they near? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How often do we see huge signals dampen as they near? I think your point is it happens and this time so far it’s not which is good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2021 Author Share Posted November 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think your point is it happens and this time so far it’s not which is good! Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 I've found similar things for other sites in the East. We'll see though. I was definitely pretty optimistic for something as cold as a top-five cold December nationally in the Summer for the past 30 years, but the way the pattern evolved was pretty different than those super cold years by late Summer, so I moved to warmer years. I was evaluating snow totals compared to average through 11/15 today too for the continental US. We're way below average almost everywhere. Among my analogs, that's very similar to three of them - 1974, 2001, 2017. The other two, 1961 and 2020, had were very snowy nationally early on extremely far to the South. I gave 1974 and 2017 double weight, with the other three at one weight. So national snow patterns are mostly on track so far for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Some real duds mixed in there. 2011… puke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some real duds mixed in there. 2011… puke We aren't having a 2011. The vortex isn't as strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 I would say out of that awful group, fear 1953 the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 83 and 75 are only in BN because of the new snow climo averages. That wouldn’t be so 10-20 years ago. Anyways to me there is not a OMG we’re doomed signal from that. Also why does it matter when the snow comes? That’s like saying we had a record warm fall, but mostly because of October. It all gets counted no matter when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 83 and 75 are only in BN because of the new snow climo averages. That wouldn’t be so 10-20 years ago. Anyways to me there is not a OMG we’re doomed signal from that. Also why does it matter when the snow comes? That’s like saying we had a record warm fall, but mostly because of October. It all gets counted no matter when it happens. I know....I was thinking the same thing...I can see that more for like 1997 or 1982 with individual, freak spring blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 I like the 1983-1984 analog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Judah going mild December and cold February. Bucking the climo I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the 1983-1984 analog. Coldest Christmas on record for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Judah going mild December and cold February. Bucking the climo I see. I could see December ending up a bit above normal, but its not going to be a torch. He must feel the PV is going to be disrupted late season, which is also my call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 18 hours ago, uncle W said: December was colder than average… rest of the winter was mild…Snowfall in nyc in 1950-51 was way below average…coldest temp and biggest snow was on 12/26 coinciding with the ao’s strongest negative…it was during a drier/colder time… Mild, wet and 118th of 128 winters for snowfall up here. Like last winter only wetter. No thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 https://www.wcvb.com/article/winter-weather-outlook-boston-massachusetts-area-2021-2022/38258335 Sounds a lot like my forecast, though I maybe a bit cooler in December and milder in January. He has 50" for Boston, I think I had 45-55". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://www.wcvb.com/article/winter-weather-outlook-boston-massachusetts-area-2021-2022/38258335 Sounds a lot like my forecast, though I maybe a bit cooler in December and milder in January. He has 50" for Boston, I think I had 45-55". Judah is horrific. Has he ever verified anything? Not sure he’s even a met 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Judah is horrific. Has he ever verified anything? Not sure he’s even a met My critique of him is that he is more of a researcher than a forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My critique of him is that he is more of a reach than a forecaster. fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Judah is horrific. Has he ever verified anything? Not sure he’s even a met He is calling for a cold 2nd half which is way different than alot of forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He is calling for a cold 2nd half which is way different than alot of forecasts. I honestly don’t think anyone pays him any mind . Dudes obsessed with the GFS stratospheric nonsense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I honestly don’t think anyone pays him any mind . Dudes obsessed with the GFS stratospheric nonsense Agree Threats should be popping up pretty soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I honestly don’t think anyone pays him any mind . Dudes obsessed with the GFS stratospheric nonsense He does tend to act like the PV is all that matters...very linear forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Piggy pile on Judah today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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