Winter 2021-2022

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I don't think the OV Monster of 1978 got particularly close to the 940s, maybe low 950s, though this is pulled from deep memory and thus suspect.  Lowest I've seen in Maine was CAR's 957 in the 1976 Groundhog Day gale.

I think it bottomed out at 952mb near CLE. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Would love to experience another band like 2/22-23/09 - 9" in 2:45 and 18" in 7:30.  Then the March 2 storm busted, 5.6" with forecast 8-12 and less than 2" after that.  (Two straight years with early March busts - the 10-14" "Manitoba Mauler for 3/1/08 verified at 6.1", stopping pack growth at 48".)
January 2009's max was 31° here, on 3 different days, the only </=32 month I've recorded since Jan. '85 in Ft. Kent.  (Max was 22 that month but it only cracked -20 once; 2nd lowest was -17.  1983 with -19 was the only other January of 10 there that failed to touch -30.)  

What about Feb 2015? I think the max at ORH was 34F that month. I would have assumed Farmington didn’t break freezing but I guess they snuck above. 

Ditto January 2003 which had a max of like 37F or 38F. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Salisbury looks like a decent spot for good snows. It’s got some latitude, not so far E like Cape Ann, but far enough NE to benefit from late blooming Miller B’s. I estimate climo to be 60” or so per year. 

More than 60. I’d say near 70 if near west side of town. 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I went a month in January during which it pretty much remained below freezing. Pretty steady stream of moderate snowfalls....kind of 1994 like, though modified a bit.

The back to back RUC storms. That was fun in 09. 

[NorEastermass128]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More than 60. I’d say near 70 if near west side of town. 

Sweet. I’m pretty sure where I live now averages slightly more than mid Cape. It’s horrid here (snowfall wise of course). 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Sweet. I’m pretty sure where I live now averages slightly more than mid Cape. It’s horrid here (snowfall wise of course). 

You prob average near 50 there but you got porked last year plenty of times. There’s some seasons that you will clean up on Cape Anne.  

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You prob average near 50 there but you got porked last year plenty of times. There’s some seasons that you will clean up on Cape Anne.  

And the season before didn’t even crack 20”. 

[raindancewx]

Should be another pretty weird winter nationally. 

My hunch is we get a pretty rapid collapse in any La Nina / near La Nina that peaks around 11/1 in late winter. Then warms up from the east like a diet Spring 1997 by Spring 2022.

La Nina with rapidly rising solar activity on a July-June annualized basis is kind of unusual if that's what we get.

La Nina + Declining Solar (1930-2020): 1933-34, 1938-39, 1942-43, 1949-50, 1950-51, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76, 1983-84, 1984-85, 1995-96, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18

La Nina + Rapidly Rising Solar (1930-2020):  1955-56, 1956-57, 1988-89, 2010-11, 2011-12

La Nina + Weakly Rising (1930-2020): 1954-55, 2000-01, 2020-21 

A lot of the "near" La Nina Neutrals are in the rising solar category too. It's definitely interesting that the three "weakly rising" La Ninas are all pretty cold for La Ninas where I am, with pretty substantial cold dumps that repeated cyclically on a national basis.

Years	Jul-Jun
1931	25.1
1932	14.5
1933	9.1
1934	27.6
1935	97.0
1936	172.8
1937	180.8
1938	171.6
1939	125.9
1940	94.4
1941	76.5
1942	33.9
1943	14.2
1944	33.8
1945	95.8
1946	197.9
1947	205.9
1948	194.4
1949	164.9
1950	103.4
1951	62.8
1952	36.4
1953	9.5
1954	19.2
1955	119.8
1956	237.6
1957	281.6
1958	255.4
1959	184.2
1960	116.6
1961	67.1
1962	42.2
1963	29.1
1964	16.6
1965	37.1
1966	104.2
1967	145.0
1968	155.7
1969	148.6
1970	115.7
1971	100.5
1972	75.4
1973	44.8
1974	34.6
1975	23.6
1976	23.2
1977	84.1
1978	169.9
1979	233.4
1980	199.1
1981	195.5
1982	129.2
1983	82.7
1984	25.9
1985	16.1
1986	19.1
1987	65.3
1988	182.8
1989	200.7
1990	200.8
1991	177.8
1992	103.3
1993	53.8
1994	36.9
1995	14.9
1996	14.5
1997	54.9
1998	115.2
1999	163.2
2000	163.4
2001	176.0
2002	131.0
2003	82.0
2004	55.3
2005	34.7
2006	20.1
2007	7.2
2008	2.3
2009	13.2
2010	44.0
2011	94.0
2012	87.4
2013	108.7
2014	90.7
2015	55.8
2016	28.5
2017	15.0
2018	5.5
2019	2.1
2020	16.1

[CoastalWx]

14 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

And the season before didn’t even crack 20”. 

You probably had near 110-120" in 2015 though.

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You probably had near 110-120" in 2015 though.

I wasn’t here then, but that would be quite the experience. I’ve seen pictures from that winter. Bearskin Neck looked like a remote Alaskan village. 

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

What about Feb 2015? I think the max at ORH was 34F that month. I would have assumed Farmington didn’t break freezing but I guess they snuck above. 

Ditto January 2003 which had a max of like 37F or 38F. 

Sunday, Feb 22,2015 popped up to 35, probably less than 4 hours in the 30s.  Next highest was 28.  That Sunday had a low of 4, the 19th had 5, 2 days had 1 and the other 24 were zero or below.  The month's low was -25 and it's been colder in Feb (lowest is -29 in 2003) but that -25 was on 2/24, almost as anomalous as the -26 on 2/29/08.  Feb 2015 wasn't remarkable for all time cold mornings, but for staying consistently cold all month.  Temps for the month at my place were 16.5/-10.1 for an average of 3.2.
Jan 2003 had a max of 34, 2nd coldest monthly max.  3rd place is 37.

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You probably had near 110-120" in 2015 though.

Here’s the Wegman’s parking lot in Burlington on Feb 25, 2015. Man, we were spoiled that winter. 

[George001]

the strength of the La Niña is right now forecasted to be similar to 2017-2018, a high end weak nina, and it is a second year nina as well with increasing solar activity. However, by mid fall that La Niña hadn’t even formed yet, where as this Nina is forecasted to already be borderline moderate by then (like -.8). This is more similar to the progression of the super Nina of 2011 (much weaker in strength but similar in terms of peaking in the fall), that La Niña was already up to -1.6 by September! By December of 2011, the La Niña was still strong and maintained its strength for over 3 straight months. In my opinion this gave the atmosphere enough time to respond to the strong La Niña and allowed the atmospheric pattern to reflect La Niña the entire winter. Looking at the recent ocean temps in the enso region, the enso 3.4 region already is starting to tank, going from +.3 to -.1 over the past 3 weeks.  The Pacific Ocean as a whole is starting to cool off as well, with it being a mix of cold and warm unlike last year where it was all warm. That warm blob in the northern pacific is still too far west though, and the sst configuration indicates that although we could see a more favorable pacific jet configuration, the strength of the pacific jet is still stronger than average, so there are some mixed signals for the winter of 2021-2022. I’m not going to issue an official winter forecast until November but right now my early thought on analogs would be

2020-2021 (good match with the fall peaking Nina and increasing solar, North Pacific blob west of ideal)

2017-2018 (good match with the strength of the nina, 2nd year nina, strong pacific jet but slightly more favorable location of North Pacific blob, Nina more east based which this one probably won’t be)

2010-2011 (good match with the fall peaking Nina and increasing solar, more central based like this one, though this Nina was much stronger and the pacific jet was weaker)

 

right now I’m not seeing 1995-1996 as a great analog since I don’t think the pacific will be all that great, but I also think it won’t be as bad as last year, and the nina peaking in the fall as well as the strength should be favorable. I don’t like the pacific blob so far west though, and the Nina is forecasted to be more west based which isn’t ideal. However, the sst configuration on the Atlantic side looks pretty good so we have a good chance at getting more polar vortex intrusions than a garbage winter like 2011-2012. Overall the early signs are mixed but I would say they are more favorable than last year. What do you guys think? My favorite analog is 2017-2018, I think it’s most realistic looking at the early signs. Not a crazy record breaking wall to wall winter like 1995-1996, but still an above average winter even with the lull in mid winter and the warm spells. Way better than 2011-2012 and even about twice as much snow as last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Here’s the Wegman’s parking lot in Burlington on Feb 25, 2015. Man, we were spoiled that winter. 

Thats the type of winter where I nail most of my forecasts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah 2013-2014 was a good winter but it left a lot on the table in my opinion, we narrowly missed a historic blizzard in late March that year, I remember the models had the strength of the low into the 940s at one point, if that had came up the coast, that would have likely been a widespread 3 footer. Even the severe blizzard in March 2018 that dropped 2 feet of snow where I live got down to the low 960s, just imagine a low in the 940s that is a slow mover coming up the coast! Had that storm hit, that winter would have been up there with the 2014-2015, 2010-2011, 1977-1978, 2004-2005, and 1995-1996 winters. 

2013-2014 and 1993-1994 are both overrated winters for me because they under performed locally.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2013-2014 and 1993-1994 are both overrated winters for me because they under performed locally.

Realtors have it right with their 3 "Ls".  SNE/CNE appear to have fared better compared to their norms than sites north of PWM/CON, but the exceptions can be great. March 2014 was one of those, with Farmington getting 3 feet and farther south getting cold wx with poorly timed (read: messy, or worse) storms.  Kind of like January that year for us - AN precip, BN temps, record low snow.

[MJO812]

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a pretty uniformly good season across most of New England. There weren't any extreme jackpot zones and few true screw zones. CT Valley may have been a little on the light side and maybe the outer Cape was struggling to reach average, but otherwise hard to find any spots below average.

 

 

Awful 

[MJO812]

[tamarack]

About 5-7 days later here, but it's more a plateau than a peak. The 30+ days 7/9-10 thru 8/9-10 all have average within 1° of each other. 
(Subject to change.  Being in only our 24th year here, all averages are "live", potentially having slight changes with each entry.)

[Ginx snewx]

Stole this from PB but let's do the blocky thing

[George001]

12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Stole this from PB but let's do the blocky thing

It seems like in New England if there is a Nina you want more severe North Atlantic blocking to turn what would be storms cutting to our west and bringing us rain into Miller bs that redevelop over Long Island or the Jersey shore before coming up the coast, going right over cape cod or the islands. Where as with ninos we actually want less North Atlantic blocking because ninos tend to have a farther south storm track to begin with, with an active southern branch but limited northern branch interaction (especially in stronger ninos). In both 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 we had severe North Atlantic blocking but 09-10 was a ratter in New England (except NYC, Metfan probably loved that winter), where as in 2010-2011 New England got hammered. In my opinion the reason we got hammered in 2010-2011 instead of the mid Atlantic in 2009-2010 despite both years having severe North Atlantic blocking is the Enso state. In 2009-2010 we had a strong El Niño where as in 2010-2011 we had a super Nina. 

[George001]

Severe North Atlantic blocking+ Nina is a great setup for us. The best setups are probably severe North Atlantic blocking+ Nina and weak nino+ Slightly displaced eastern Canada polar vortex+ Western north american ridge with Limited North Atlantic blocking. In the winter of 2014-2015 we had hardly any North Atlantic blocking, but had a perfectly positioned polar vortex, although it was near the North Pole and did not split that year, it was stretched out (polar vortex displacement) which allowed cold air intrusions to enter the eastern half of the country. In my opinion the lack of North Atlantic blocking helped us to an extent (after the first blizzard, that one had North Atlantic blocking and was more northern stream driven, a Miller b). If we had severe blocking in 2015 many of those feb blizzards would have missed to the south. 

[George001]

This is a very good sign, still early of course but something to watch. This does not guarantee a big winter (could easily end up being too far west) but i would rather see this than a signal for polar vortex consolidation over the North Pole.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is a very good sign, still early of course but something to watch. This does not guarantee a big winter (could easily end up being too far west) but i would rather see this than a signal for polar vortex consolidation over the North Pole.

 

My gut says another blocky winter en route....this is admittedly purely anecdotal, as we had been on quite a run of positive NAO seasons. Regression to the mean works both ways.....

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My gut says another blocky winter en route....this is admittedly purely anecdotal, as we had been on quite a run of positive NAO seasons. Regression to the mean works both ways.....

Let's hope. Your gut is considerably smaller now so the feeling is stronger. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's hope. Your gut is considerably smaller now so the feeling is stronger. Lol

We'll see how things look as we get closer, but just my guess. And my gut isn't so small haha

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My gut says another blocky winter en route....this is admittedly purely anecdotal, as we had been on quite a run of positive NAO seasons. Regression to the mean works both ways.....

It doesn't have to be anecdotal either ...

We technically were 'supposed' to have entered a multi-decadal -AO osccillatory mode ( meaning that mode is favored ), which happens along a similar well-correlated solar oscillation. It was tipping into the early 2000s and should be falling though 2025 I believe -

The negative solar phase/-AO is the historical inference.  

The accelerated CC/GW is an introduction to that whole thematic arc that has unknown plot elements - that said... that doesn't preclude or abase the fact that going back 300 years worth of re-analysis demos there is an apparent -solar/-AO --> +solar/+AO movement of those curves.

And the attribution science appears to link through UV rad flux in stratospheric Ozone... +solar breaks down Ozone, and that limits the chemistry for absorbing planetary warm advection at high lat/altitudes... where by dumping warmth in causes the SW to ignite.d Contrasting ... -solar and weaker UV input leaves Ozone population and Ozone thermal conductivity than absorbs incoming planetary wave decay and away she goes.

[Mr. Kevin]

On 7/22/2021 at 10:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2013-2014 and 1993-1994 are both overrated winters for me because they under performed locally.

Hi 40/70. I have a question. I read your final notes on last winter at 33andrain.com. If we get a weak niña and a -qbo this winter, do you think we can get a relatively cold winter this winter, all else being equal? I know its early, but I was curious what you keep an eye on for what type of winter could happen

[raindancewx]

On 7/21/2021 at 6:41 PM, raindancewx said:

July-June monthly average sunspots in rising solar years (NAO winter overall tendency). 

1954	19.2
1955	119.8
1956	237.6
1957	281.6
1965	37.1
1966	104.2
1967	145.0
1968	155.7
1977	84.1
1978	169.9
1979	233.4
1986	19.1
1987	65.3
1988	182.8
1989	200.7
1990	200.8
1997	54.9
1998	115.2
1999	163.2
2000	163.4
2001	176.0
2009	13.2
2010	44.0
2011	94.0
2012	87.4
2013	108.7
2020	16.1

-NAO (DJF) winters (in aggregate): 1954, 1955, 1957, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1986, 1997, 2009, 2010, 2020. I would argue a year like 2000-01 or 1967-68 is more "-nao" in reality than a "fake" -nao year like 1997-98, but the point is, roughly half of years with rising solar since 1950 see a net -NAO in winter.

The "rising" but still low (<55 sunspots per month July-Jun) years are: 1954, 1965, 1986, 1997, 2009, 2010, 2020. That's seven for seven for a net -NAO, whereas the "rising" but high years are six for twenty. The odds are not bad overall even if you want to regress the 7 for 7 with the x+1/y+2 rule with some Bayesian assumptions, i.e. assume the trend would go from 7/7 to 8/9.

The 2021-22 July-June solar year is starting off with around 40 sunspots this month - going to be real interesting to see how rapidly solar rises this year. It's harder to predict than the decays from the peak solar I find.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

-NAO (DJF) winters (in aggregate): 1954, 1955, 1957, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1986, 1997, 2009, 2010, 2020. I would argue a year like 2000-01 or 1967-68 is more "-nao" in reality than a "fake" -nao year like 1997-98, but the point is, roughly half of years with rising solar since 1950 see a net -NAO in winter.

The "rising" but still low (<55 sunspots per month July-Jun) years are: 1954, 1965, 1986, 1997, 2009, 2010, 2020. That's seven for seven for a net -NAO, whereas the "rising" but high years are six for twenty. The odds are not bad overall even if you want to regress the 7 for 7 with the x+1/y+2 rule with some Bayesian assumptions, i.e. assume the trend would go from 7/7 to 8/9.

The 2021-22 July-June solar year is starting off with around 40 sunspots this month - going to be real interesting to see how rapidly solar rises this year. It's harder to predict than the decays from the peak solar I find.

The problem with the NAO in this analysis - for me ... - is that it is not really physically motivated into modes by super sets of forcing ( such as extra-terrestrial/solar... ) nearly as readily as it is by planetary wave modulation taking place in vastly shorter time and spans of synoptic vagaries.

Start with the AO ( would be my argument; not meant as gospel  -)  The AO happens to share domain space with the NAO.  The circuitry is through the entire polar domain ...to then partially motivate the NAO toward base-lines when any offsets are absent.  Like, if the AO is negative, the NAO 'wants to be negative' because of that shared space, but the synoptic forcing is blurring that signal..  Thus, there is an influence on one another, but there is also a disconnect and they don't always share the same mode value, nor move in the same direction.  This tendency for skewing, combined with the fact the (-) vs (+) NAO states are heavily modulated by short duration planetary wave phenomenon, doesn't lend very well to a solar forcing or very reliable ( or perhaps "believable" ) useful as a predictor for the NAO. 

I just wonder/if not suspect, that replacing the NAO with the AO in the above analysis, might be better.

The other aspect is that the NAO is over-rated for the Lakes/OV/upper MA and NE regions.  It always has been.  There are times when it correlates to storms and cold and it seems like it's immovable.  But in reality ...the majority of our storms and cold are preceded by modulation events upstream in the EPO/PNA ...while there is -AO tendencies overall.  In fact, a data supported argument could be made that the NAO more oft then the other way around ..is a negative interference pattern.  It may reflect a correlation more in temperatures than actual storminess in said areas.