Winter 2021-2022

[CoastalWx]

No signs of warmings yet and it did take a few punches, but at least this isn't a concentric circle near Santa's fanny. That elongation to the south at least helps a bit. 

 

[CoastalWx]

I typically look a 50mb since it's closer to the troposphere. I don't care too much if there will be a warming by the international space station.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No signs of warmings yet and it did take a few punches, but at least this isn't a concentric circle near Santa's fanny. That elongation to the south at least helps a bit. 

 

I think it will be stats quo there until it strengthens a good bit around the New Year and beyond.

I think 2007-2008 was like that, just a bit stronger.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will be stats quo there until it strengthens a good bit around the New Year and beyond.

I think 2007-2008 was like that, just a bit stronger.

We had that monster vortex just to our NE. Thanks God for that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had that monster vortex just to our NE. Thanks God for that.

That season would have been abysmal.

[Great Snow 1717]

37 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

so your user name is just Snow 1717?

unfortunately some days it is just Great Snow 1717....

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lower heights INTVO of AK is going to be a reoccurring theme this season...2011-2012 is a decent, if flawed analog...however, we should have good periods given the drastically different polar domain.

11-12 was ridiculous, you had that massive AK/Bering Sea vortex develop a few days after Thanksgiving and it was lights out right through the end of March. It became a semi-permanent feature and the EPO floodgates were wide open all winter. It was crazy persistent. Kind of hard to believe we would see an anomaly like that again

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

11-12 was ridiculous, you had that massive AK/Bering Sea vortex develop a few days after Thanksgiving and it was lights out right through the end of March. It became a semi-permanent feature and the EPO floodgates were wide open all winter. It was crazy persistent. Kind of hard to believe we would see an anomaly like that again

I think something like 2005-2006 is much more likely.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think something like 2005-2006 is much more likely.

Meh

[ORH_wxman]

If you have a La Nina winter with a severe -PNA where the core of the low height anomalies is over the PNA region in western Canada, the key to having it still be a very good winter is the WPO region to the west and also not having a hostile Atlantic.

I made a composite below of the "good" La Ninas that had this general PNA pattern:

 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you have a La Nina winter with a severe -PNA where the core of the low height anomalies is over the PNA region in western Canada, the key to having it still be a very good winter is the WPO region to the west and also not having a hostile Atlantic.

I made a composite below of the "good" La Ninas that had this general PNA pattern:

 

 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

It's the block you see in the image I had posted last page. Good poleward block. I don't want that going west or a hostile Atlantic. 

[George001]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s getting ready to peak, which will probably happen in the next several weeks, the models all had a November/December peak, which fits ENSO climo, most Nino’s and Nina’s peak in that time frame. This event most likely peaks the tail end of this month or early December, that really doesn’t change anything, was expected and is a normal progression 

Honestly I expected it to strengthen and peak mid to late December or so, in my forecast I said I thought it would peak -1.2 to -1.6, I was leaning high end a couple weeks ago but now it looks like the people who were calling for high end weak/low end moderate will be right. That’s kind of a big deal for areas farther south, don’t know about where I live. I have heard earlier peaking ninas are more favorable anyways, I would think by the time winter hits we’re going to be in a full blown Nina pattern due to the lag effect. Everything is lining up for at least a good winter in the Boston area. Whether or not it’s great remains to be seen.

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the block you see in the image I had posted last page. Good poleward block. I don't want that going west or a hostile Atlantic. 

The week 4 map has the WPO block little bit west of ideal, but given the time frame, it’s prob fine for now. You shift that a touch East and we’re in business for December. 

Also, Atlantic doesn’t look terrible...get that a little more blocky and we’d have more wiggle room. 

And goes without saying...things could shift in a less favorable direction too. But most of the guidance is definitely going with the theme of dumping some frigid air into Canada...CFSv2 likes it too...has the higher heights up north further east which is what we’d want.  

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The week 4 map has the WPO block little bit west of ideal, but given the time frame, it’s prob fine for now. You shift that a touch East and we’re in business for December. 

Also, Atlantic doesn’t look terrible...get that a little more blocky and we’d have more wiggle room. 

And goes without saying...things could shift in a less favorable direction too. But most of the guidance is definitely going with the theme of dumping some frigid air into Canada...CFSv2 likes it too...has the higher heights up north further east which is what we’d want.  

That's great right there. Sign me up for that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The week 4 map has the WPO block little bit west of ideal, but given the time frame, it’s prob fine for now. You shift that a touch East and we’re in business for December. 

Also, Atlantic doesn’t look terrible...get that a little more blocky and we’d have more wiggle room. 

And goes without saying...things could shift in a less favorable direction too. But most of the guidance is definitely going with the theme of dumping some frigid air into Canada...CFSv2 likes it too...has the higher heights up north further east which is what we’d want.  

I would be totally stunned if we had a poor December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's great right there. Sign me up for that.

If we do get a December like that, which I think we will, you can flat out eliminate all of the poor la nina analogs...at least for New England.

[MJOatleast7]

The week 4 map has the WPO block little bit west of ideal, but given the time frame, it’s prob fine for now. You shift that a touch East and we’re in business for December. 
Also, Atlantic doesn’t look terrible...get that a little more blocky and we’d have more wiggle room. 
And goes without saying...things could shift in a less favorable direction too. But most of the guidance is definitely going with the theme of dumping some frigid air into Canada...CFSv2 likes it too...has the higher heights up north further east which is what we’d want.  

Yup - shift everything 200 nmi east and we’re good. Also would help to have a 50/50 low to lock in cold air. But maybe that doesn’t normally show up yet anyway. Any correlations that anyone has noticed between 50/50 lows and ENSO state?


.

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Yup - shift everything 200 nmi east and we’re good. Also would help to have a 50/50 low to lock in cold air. But maybe that doesn’t normally show up yet anyway. Any correlations that anyone has noticed between 50/50 lows and ENSO state?


.

Yeah it’s not good yet, but it’s close and if you extrapolate those 2 maps above to later December I would think the pattern becomes great. North Atlantic blocking looks like it is starting to develop there, even with a trough west of ideal that can work. The blocking should help turn those lows initially running inland redevelop off the coast and turn into Miller Bs. 

[George001]

That type of pattern would be a high ceiling one on New England, in some of the mid Atlantic boards they cringe at the thought of Miller Bs, but those Miller Bs that screw them over often bury us. It seems like Miller As just don’t have the crazy high ceiling Miller Bs do. Jan 2015, Feb 1978, Feb 2013, Jan 2005 ect all Miller bs.

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

That type of pattern would be a high ceiling one on New England, in some of the mid Atlantic boards they cringe at the thought of Miller Bs, but those Miller Bs that screw them over often bury us. It seems like Miller As just don’t have the crazy high ceiling Miller Bs do. Jan 2015, Feb 1978, Feb 2013, Jan 2005 ect all Miller bs.

Most of the Miller B's usually screw anyone from around Philadelphia on south. If you are north of Philly and especially from Central NJ (Monmouth/Mercer County) line on north you usually do pretty well.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dec is looking warm on most LR guidance . 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec is looking warm on most LR guidance . 

Which ones?

Very boring weather right now 

[JB_Wchstr]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec is looking warm on most LR guidance . 

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec is looking warm on most LR guidance . 

I’ve given up paying attention to LR guidance.  Its track record has been very chancy. 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec is looking warm on most LR guidance . 

Let's cancel winter now then and enjoy the warm weather & lower heating costs.

[Damage In Tolland]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Which ones?

Very boring weather right now 

All of it 

[JB_Wchstr]

I feel like if this were a “real” La Niña, we’d have had one solid snow threat by now. But nothing coming up in the near future.  Maybe this one will behave itself.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

I feel like if this were a “real” La Niña, we’d have had one solid snow threat by now. But nothing coming up in the near future.  Maybe this one will behave itself.  

That's just weenie talk. There is no truth in that statement. 

[CoastalWx]

If anything, Ninos are the ones that have Novie threats.