snowman19 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: And to think some people thought it was going to get stronger It’s getting ready to peak, which will probably happen in the next several weeks, the models all had a November/December peak, which fits ENSO climo, most Nino’s and Nina’s peak in that time frame. This event most likely peaks the tail end of this month or early December, that really doesn’t change anything, was expected and is a normal progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good news...everything looks great. I’m not so sure to start December. I wouldn’t say great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not sure sure to start December. I wouldn’t say great. Yeah… I don’t think it looks great. There are definitely some flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah… I don’t think it looks great. There are definitely some flags. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah… I don’t think it looks great. There are definitely some flags. It could be fine, but not a fan of lower heights as shown. Maybe the ridging out west helps, but I wouldn't expect that to build in a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not so sure to start December. I wouldn’t say great. Agree. ....the word great doesn't apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just to elaborate: Positives: Maybe some higher heights in Greenland and perhaps some ridging out west and in the southwest. Negatives: Lower heights in a bad spot. I'd say a big negative. Caveats are week 4 etc...but given the end of the EPS where maybe things relax a bit...I'm not sure about a great look. JMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 That's some good cold in Canada so there is money in the bank anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 AK vortex? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's some good cold in Canada so there is money in the bank anyways. Weeklies are out to lunch flip weekly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Weeklies are out to lunch flip weekly Just stating what they show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not so sure to start December. I wouldn’t say great. I knew you would be the one to queef in my face. I'm talking about the next 45 days or so in the mean. Wait until after the holidays, load up a composite of 11/16 to 12/26, then talk to me. No one will care about your 3 mild days in early December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah… I don’t think it looks great. There are definitely some flags. I wouldn't think it looked great if I lived in Taunton, either. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Agree. ....the word great doesn't apply. TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It’s getting ready to peak, which will probably happen in the next several weeks, the models all had a November/December peak, which fits ENSO climo, most Nino’s and Nina’s peak in that time frame. This event most likely peaks the tail end of this month or early December, that really doesn’t change anything, was expected and is a normal progression It changes plenty if you were expecting a strong la nina, which some were. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 12 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That’s interesting. From an anomaly standpoint, the weeklies I can see looked ugly week 4-5. My take on that is its correct, but rushed....as the evolution often is in the extended. You will see those blues around AK verify, but get pushed back towards the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Danger ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My take on that is its correct, but rushed....as the evolution often is in the extended. You will see those blues around AK verify, but get pushed back towards the new year. The end of the EPS try to show something. I could see lower heights progress from this image shown, to the weeklies. I'm not cancelling winter....just stating that concerns me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Agree. ....the word great doesn't apply. so your user name is just Snow 1717? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Also forcing looks strong on maritime continent. I think that will pull back the ridging to a more dateline look into December. Just my guess. Hopefully the AO/NAO aren't raging +. I know the sub surface is warming, but still strong easterlies at 850..moving a bit towards the west again. Not sure what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The end of the EPS try to show something. I could see lower heights progress from this image shown, to the weeklies. I'm not cancelling winter....just stating that concerns me a bit. Lower heights INTVO of AK is going to be a reoccurring theme this season...2011-2012 is a decent, if flawed analog...however, we should have good periods given the drastically different polar domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also forcing looks strong on maritime continent. I think that will pull back the ridging to a more dateline look into December. Just my guess. Hopefully the AO/NAO aren't raging +. I know the sub surface is warming, but still strong easterlies at 850..moving a bit towards the west again. Not sure what to think. I will agree that if the polar field doesn't work out this season, then we are cooked. I see no reason to suspect that, though. I would be surprised. The Pacific is not pretty this season...it should be a for a spell in December, but by in large...it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 Forcing over the maritime continent isn't going anywhere, but that is usually good in December...its thereafter that it goes to crap. I guess if you were looking for 2014-2015, or 1977-1978, then no....everything doesn't look great. But if you had reasonable expectations given the hand we were dealt this season, then I think it looks about as good as could reasonably be expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will agree that if the polar field doesn't work out this season, then we are cooked. I see no reason to suspect that, though. I would be surprised. The Pacific is not pretty this season...it should be a for a spell in December, but by in large...it won't be. I feel like I need to walk on egg shells when saying this stuff. Not directed at you.....just saying I am not cancelling anything. I'm not sure what to think right now given the look. I agree the AO/NAO right now is certainly not a black hole like 11-12 looked at this time. So that is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I feel like I need to walk on egg shells when saying this stuff. Not directed at you.....just saying I am not cancelling anything. I'm not sure what to think right now given the look. I agree the AO/NAO right now is certainly not a black hole like 11-12 looked at this time. So that is good. Its not going to be pretty and its going to be perilously close to a ratter...I get what you are saying. But I feel good about it working out. Maybe I am wrong...certainly have been before and will be again and again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I was getting at is that looks pretty similar to what I have for January. Ha, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It changes plenty if you were expecting a strong la nina, which some were. I haven’t seen anyone saying strong. I’ve seen moderate, which is still definitely possible for a peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Just to elaborate: Positives: Maybe some higher heights in Greenland and perhaps some ridging out west and in the southwest. Negatives: Lower heights in a bad spot. I'd say a big negative. Caveats are week 4 etc...but given the end of the EPS where maybe things relax a bit...I'm not sure about a great look. JMHO. What I was getting is that looks pretty similar to what I have for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I haven’t seen anyone saying strong. I’ve seen moderate, which is still definitely possible for a peak NewYork Metrowx did....Cosgrove may have, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, interesting. I quoted the wrong image initially...damn, you're quick lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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