It's Always Sunny Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Winter influence is what I was referenced. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean However, four of the five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the monthly IOD value for November will be within the neutral range, with the remaining model sitting just at the threshold value (i.e. −0.4 °C). A return to neutral weekly IOD values is anticipated in the coming weeks. This is consistent with the typical life cycle of an IOD event, which sees events dissipate in late spring or early summer with the arrival of the Australian monsoon. When the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean, it changes wind patterns and prevents an IOD event from forming. This is why IOD events are unable to form (and therefore influence Australian climate) during December to April. Ok yeah I get what you're saying but I guess the point I was trying to make was there have been a few months during Dec-Apr where IOD was negative and has had some influence on downstream impacts via enhanced Walker Circulation. Obviously what transpires in the IO will have certain amount of time lag before its influence is felt over the Pacific but like mentioned before I think this is an area of research that can be explored more. IO is such a huge driver of our summer weather I would think there is at least some influence (big or not) it has on winter weather, more than what we currently know. There was some research done back in 2015 I think that correlated summer/fall IOD phase to proceeding ENSO phase with 8-14 month lead time. Results weren't entirely accurate but r-values were sound. It didn't pan out this year when referencing last but I believe the year before it did I would have to go back and look. Just shows how "new" all this is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Just now, EasternLI said: From what I've read, the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Warm Pool are two areas under increased scrutiny in recent years, and continues to be. Mostly because of projected warming in that part of the world. Most of the research done previously did not look into possible global ramifications only local ones. The following recent paper, for example, attributes the +NAO of winter 19-20 to the very strong IOD of that fall. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1005 I haven't read this article but just goes to show how much more there is to learn. Thanks for the link! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 I used to get into the AAM and Mt Torque stuff, but honestly ensemble guidance are good enough. I follow the EPS MJO stuff and that’s about it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 11 hours ago, uncle W said: 1970-71 was a dud from February on in NYC but great north and west...I remember seeing on the news about roofs collapsing in Port Jervis NY from heavy wet snow...the city got cold rain...1970-71 is one of those years that had snow on Christmas day and New Years day...1975-76 did it too...Boston got some heavy snow before Christmas 1975... Off of your response I looked up the annual snowfall records for NYC. It's amazing how much more snow NYC has gotten this century as compared to the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Off of your response I looked up the annual snowfall records for NYC. It's amazing how much more snow NYC has gotten this century as compared to the past. I don’t think that’s true at all! Growing up, 30 year normal snow was 30ish at NYC and it’s nearly 20% less now I think. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I don’t think that’s true at all! Growing up, 30 year normal snow was 30ish at NYC and it’s nearly 20% less now I think. I don’t think NYC ever averaged that much. Maybe the late 1800s? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 I always use to say it depends on the specific data sets and range your looking at for averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 I'm not sure about 30 year averages, but according to xmacis2, NYC averaged about 32" in the 50 year period between 1870 and 1920. I think the difference is that much of that was made up of 4-8," 6-10" types of events with KUs being less common. Obviously it was also much colder then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 6 hours ago, weathafella said: I don’t think that’s true at all! Growing up, 30 year normal snow was 30ish at NYC and it’s nearly 20% less now I think. NYC average rose from 27 In the 80s to about 30 now. Perhaps much earlier in the century it was more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjqkaOkqYf0AhXTZTUKHWqtBicQFnoECCUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3FEGQwI8KNSBMHqqnxH0gI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjqkaOkqYf0AhXTZTUKHWqtBicQFnoECCUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3FEGQwI8KNSBMHqqnxH0gI What year was that huge blizzard in the late 1800's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 11 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: I think the IO is one of the most underplayed influences in long range forecasting. Meteorologically still more to be discovered but it is a known driver of the NPAC jet which obviously has downstream impacts. I think so too. Maybe it doesn’t have a strong correlation to a specific region or area but if you’re looking to study long range and teleconnections you need to have an understanding of impacts on the global level…but just local b/c at the end of the day the global scale impacts the local scale 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 55 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What year was that huge blizzard in the late 1800's? 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 1888 That must be the 22.3 inches they got in March then, 45.6 for the whole year, thought it would have been more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: NYC average rose from 27 In the 80s to about 30 now. Perhaps much earlier in the century it was more. NYC decade snow averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2019-20......0.3.....1.1.....4.4....12.9......8.1.....6.0......0.6..…33.4 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 30 minutes ago, uncle W said: NYC decade snow averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2019-20......0.3.....1.1.....4.4....12.9......8.1.....6.0......0.6..…33.4 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 This is awesome thanks! I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack. Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is awesome thanks! I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack. Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches. from 1959-1963 NYC had at least an inch on the ground for Christmas...then in 1966 there was a Christmas snowstorm... 1961...snow ends near midnight Christmas eve with 6-10" on the ground... Showing Image 14100 (nycsubway.org) 1963...6-8" fell 12/23 and ends early 12/24...That evening another half inch fell after dark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: This is awesome thanks! I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack. Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches. That's the confidence rattler when surveying 'anecdotal climatology' Those accounts are based on visual memories, ... which are invariably going to be milled through at least some amount of ( personal bias + the imagination )/2. No human being can really store information on mental engrams, when all incoming information is molded by endearing nostalgia. LOL After the "fact" ... even in the best possible objective personal recollection source, that person lives for < 100 years. Usually not much more than 80. That's not an altogether very dense sample set. In a stable climate, you can have 20 or 30 year variance that faux suggested Dec's are bigger snowers... Followed by multi-decade spans that ( eventually...) normalize back to a 300-year mean ..etc. Anecdotal experience are inherently limited as all ... Muddling matters further ... the climate is not stable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: This is awesome thanks! I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack. Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches. Ironically, NYC went their 2nd longest white christmas drought on record between 1931-1944....14 consecutive years without a white Xmas. Only the 16 consecutive years between 1967-1982 was longer. Their current drought is 11 years (2010-2020). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Merry Grinchmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: Merry Grinchmas. I'm optimistic we avoid that this year...hopefully the flip to crap is after the holidays. I feel like it will be the most widespread white xmas since maybe 1995. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 this is what I compiled for NYC white Christmas's... 1876.....1" 1880.....1-2"..... 1883...12"+......5" 12/25 1884.....3".......3" 12/24 1892.....trace... 1896.....1-2"..... 1902.......6.5" 12/25... 1904.....T-1".....3" 12/25... 1908.....trace........ 1912.....11".........11.4" 12/24 1914.....trace........0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21... 1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17..... 1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17 1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25 1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25 1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23 1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24... 1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26 1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10...rain Christmas night... 1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23...26" 12/26... 1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20 1955......trace.......2.7" 12/22 1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22 1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19 1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24 1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night... 1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12 1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21 1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night... 1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23 1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night... 1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23 1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24 1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25 1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20...0.5" 12/16...1.7" 12/14...1.5" 12/9... 1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24 2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20 2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain... 2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night... trace is less than 0.5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 Well, in New England, anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 NYC never had heavy snow falling Christmas morning at 7am...maybe 1902 which had a storm that started before dawn Christmas day...in my life time snow never fell Christmas morning...it either stopped before dawn or started after lunch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 White Christmas is nearly a lock here based on historical stats but the grinch storm was so bad it still has me spooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, uncle W said: NYC never had heavy snow falling Christmas morning at 7am...maybe 1902 which had a storm that started before dawn Christmas day...in my life time snow never fell Christmas morning...it either stopped before dawn or started after lunch... I had it in 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, PhineasC said: White Christmas is nearly a lock here based on historical stats but the grinch storm was so bad it still has me spooked. That was an all-timer. Really the only other comparable one in the past 30 years was Jan 1996...you might be able to throw December 17, 2000 in there too. You'll have a White Xmas up there this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had it in 2017. That was so perfectly timed! I had a flight to FL that I was able to move back so I could experience a morning several hours of good snow that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Well looking at the 1940s through 1070s one can see how my impressions were formed. Thanks unc! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had it in 2017. That was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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