Winter 2021-2022

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe not your analogs...

He seems like a warmnista

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that added to the frustration. Ginxy telling us how he was going tobogganing on 2" of crust and sending his grandkids to the hospital with concussions. Then to see that bowling ball modeled and that s/w for the event prior to the blizzard....I lost it. Thought that would kick the bowling ball OTS. RIP James. 

Your meltdowns were worth the concussions. To this day never seen someone downplay the most impressive storm of 15 like you did. I believe TBlizz idolized you and has perfected the meh you projected. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

It's one of my analogs

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your meltdowns were worth the concussions. To this day never seen someone downplay the most impressive storm of 15 like you did. I believe TBlizz idolized you and has perfected the meh you projected. 

Downplay? The was 3 days before any of us had a clue about what would happen. 9/10 times that s/w would have been OTS. But we glad it didn’t. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Downplay? The was 3 days before any of us had a clue about what would happen. 9/10 times that s/w would have been OTS. But we glad it didn’t. 

Revisionist history. We tried to tell you all month that a mega pattern change would come starting with a big storm end of Jan. Kev was shouting nickles and dimes rainers and persistence while you were throwing Bruce Willis flags every single model run.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed.

Lots of agreeing posts 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Revisionist history. We tried to tell you all month that a mega pattern change would come starting with a big storm end of Jan. Kev was shouting nickles and dimes rainers and persistence while you were throwing Bruce Willis flags every single model run.

There was no shouting that year. We knew what was about to unleash upon us. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ray’s outlook is so well done

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was no shouting that year. We knew what was about to unleash upon us. 

Lol no Dude lol.  You were on the nickle and dimes with raiders as late as the 23rd. It's all in the Jan 15 model discussion thread. Messenger Will and I were screaming major storm with a perfect winter pattern change inbound. Was a perfect call. We followed the science while you and Scooter let emotions rule.

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Revisionist history. We tried to tell you all month that a mega pattern change would come starting with a big storm end of Jan. Kev was shouting nickles and dimes rainers and persistence while you were throwing Bruce Willis flags every single model run.

We all documented the pattern change. I remember that. Same with 2013 too. I’m talking about that single event. We really lucked out with the s/w responsible for the blizzard. 

[CoastalWx]

Ginxy confused.

[Go Kart Mozart]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ray’s outlook is so well done

Looking forward to reading it when I have some time later today.  Ray's analysis is like the opening kickoff of winter.

[Go Kart Mozart]

And....the models start coming in at the "right time" tomorrow.  Another harBINGer of the changing season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of agreeing posts 

Disagree

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Disagree

Cosgrove? 

[tamarack]

18 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Two decent blizzards I think in Feb if I have the year right.

I'm not sure if any storms during that wonderful winter hit all the blizzard criteria, wind especially.  In those days there was a <20° criterion that only the Feb 7 storm would fit - most of that 15" at our place fell at temps 4-8°.  The Christmas Eve 15" came at low-mid 20s.  (And thunder!)  The St. Patties' Day clipper would've met temps (got down to 8° toward storm's end that morning) and was close on wind but might not have held the requirements for 3+ hours.  The March equinoctal storm was 10" but all the rest after the 3 biggies were 7" or less.  It took the 3" surprise on 4/27 to crack 100.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cosgrove? 

I don't agree with everything.

Deal with it-

Sincerely, Best regards, RS

[DavisStraight]

46 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'm not sure if any storms during that wonderful winter hit all the blizzard criteria, wind especially.  In those days there was a <20° criterion that only the Feb 7 storm would fit - most of that 15" at our place fell at temps 4-8°.  The Christmas Eve 15" came at low-mid 20s.  (And thunder!)  The St. Patties' Day clipper would've met temps (got down to 8° toward storm's end that morning) and was close on wind but might not have held the requirements for 3+ hours.  The March equinoctal storm was 10" but all the rest after the 3 biggies were 7" or less.  It took the 3" surprise on 4/27 to crack 100.

I probably have the year wrong, I don't have a memory like Wills but I remember it was Feb school vacation and we had a blizzard the first day and a week later, I think the second blizzard was the better of the two. I was dressing to go outside and it's the only time I remember my mother not letting me go out into the blizzard. I was actually pissed at the timing because we had two great storms and didn't get a snow day since we were on school vacation.

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I probably have the year wrong, I don't have a memory like Wills but I remember it was Feb school vacation and we had a blizzard the first day and a week later, I think the second blizzard was the better of the two. I was dressing to go outside and it's the only time I remember my mother not letting me go out into the blizzard. I was actually pissed at the timing because we had two great storms and didn't get a snow day since we were on school vacation.

Nearest to 1967 I see for NNJ might be Feb 1972, with a powerful storm on 19-20 but a much lesser storm (3-5") 4 days later.  The Mayor Lindsey storm on Feb 9-10, 1969 was that month's only siggy snow and other Febs in that general timeframe fall way short.  Feb 19-20, 1964 had a nice dump, especially since it had been a rain forecast, but again no 2nd act.  Where were you living at that time?

[DavisStraight]

40 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nearest to 1967 I see for NNJ might be Feb 1972, with a powerful storm on 19-20 but a much lesser storm (3-5") 4 days later.  The Mayor Lindsey storm on Feb 9-10, 1969 was that month's only siggy snow and other Febs in that general timeframe fall way short.  Feb 19-20, 1964 had a nice dump, especially since it had been a rain forecast, but again no 2nd act.  Where were you living at that time?

Same town as now, southern Worcester County, may have to call on Will, I'm sure he remembers those back to back storms in a week in Feb.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Nearest to 1967 I see for NNJ might be Feb 1972, with a powerful storm on 19-20 but a much lesser storm (3-5") 4 days later.  The Mayor Lindsey storm on Feb 9-10, 1969 was that month's only siggy snow and other Febs in that general timeframe fall way short.  Feb 19-20, 1964 had a nice dump, especially since it had been a rain forecast, but again no 2nd act.  Where were you living at that time?

 

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

Same town as now, southern Worcester County, may have to call on Will, I'm sure he remembers those back to back storms in a week in Feb.

Haha, well I don’t “remember” them per day since I wasn’t alive, but I do remember most snowfall data from back then. 

Maybe Feb 1969? The Lindsay storm was Feb 9-10, 1969....only problem is that it prob wasn’t vacation yet? Unless it was early that year. Feb 10, 1969 was a Monday but usually vacation is presidents day and that wasn’t until a week later. The 2nd huge storm that month didn’t hit until 2/22-23 and it lasted like 5 days. (It missed NJ which is why tamarack doesn’t remember it but it gave his current stomping grounds somewhere between 28-36” I’m guessing. 

I don’t think it was 1967 either because after the monster on Feb 6-7 there wasn’t another warning event until late month.  

1972 could have fit the bill...though that is 5 years later. Do you remember how old you were roughly? 1972 had a huge storm on 2/19 which would have been the Saturday before Presidents’ Day. Then there was another storm the next Saturday on 2/26 but it was a marginal warning event (like 7 inches or so). The sequence of events matches your description at least. 

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Haha, well I don’t “remember” them per day since I wasn’t alive, but I do remember most snowfall data from back then. 

Maybe Feb 1969? The Lindsay storm was Feb 9-10, 1969....only problem is that it prob wasn’t vacation yet? Unless it was early that year. Feb 10, 1969 was a Monday but usually vacation is presidents day and that wasn’t until a week later. The 2nd huge storm that month didn’t hit until 2/22-23 and it lasted like 5 days. (It missed NJ which is why tamarack doesn’t remember it but it gave his current stomping grounds somewhere between 28-36” I’m guessing. 

I don’t think it was 1967 either because after the monster on Feb 6-7 there wasn’t another warning event until late month.  

1972 could have fit the bill...though that is 5 years later. Do you remember how old you were roughly? 1972 had a huge storm on 2/19 which would have been the Saturday before Presidents’ Day. Then there was another storm the next Saturday on 2/26 but it was a marginal warning event (like 7 inches or so). The sequence of events matches your description at least. 

The 15" storm of Feb 19-20, 1972 was followed by a cold 4" event 4 days later then 6" on the 26th.  If we go earlier, ORH had 12+ on 2/16/64 and 7-8" on the 19-20th.  BDL had over 10" in that 2nd storm so maybe South Worcester did better than the co-op.

The 2/24-28/69 storm is Farmington's biggest on record with 43".  At the end the pack was 84" and though the daily increases during the storm matched exactly the daily snowfall obs (usually a cause for suspicion), the decrease in pack during early March appears quite logical given temps/precip.  That giant pack held the "official" state record until 2017 when Chimney Pond got up to 94".

[weatherwiz]

I wish we had such a better database regarding winter storms. And by that I mean more organized. Not only that but obviously you have the discrepancies and lots of lost data from the mid-90's to the early 2000's. 

Anyways if there was some sort of database where you can click on a winter season and acquire a list of every single storm/event (including totals) having such information I think could go a substantial way in long-range forecasting (pertaining to winter). 

While there has been a ton of success with various methods out there relying heavily on analogs, or making a base comparison based on ENSO phase can only go far. I also wish there was a better breakdown of the many indices which exist instead of these "monthly averages". They're fine and good and all but they aren't going to highlight or address short-term phase changes and that is what is most important. 

One example is the WPO which has a very strong correlation to the pattern configuration from the Pacific through North America and you can even argue it may even drive some of the northern hemisphere teleconnections. The WPO can also go through some wild swings on a seasonal basis. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 15" storm of Feb 19-20, 1972 was followed by a cold 4" event 4 days later then 6" on the 26th.  If we go earlier, ORH had 12+ on 2/16/64 and 7-8" on the 19-20th.  BDL had over 10" in that 2nd storm so maybe South Worcester did better than the co-op.

The 2/24-28/69 storm is Farmington's biggest on record with 43".  At the end the pack was 84" and though the daily increases during the storm matched exactly the daily snowfall obs (usually a cause for suspicion), the decrease in pack during early March appears quite logical given temps/precip.  That giant pack held the "official" state record until 2017 when Chimney Pond got up to 94".

Ha I thought about going up to 40” on that Feb 1969 estimate for Farmington but I would’ve lowballed it anyway. That was a historic storm for much of NNE into E MA. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish we had such a better database regarding winter storms. And by that I mean more organized. Not only that but obviously you have the discrepancies and lots of lost data from the mid-90's to the early 2000's. 

Anyways if there was some sort of database where you can click on a winter season and acquire a list of every single storm/event (including totals) having such information I think could go a substantial way in long-range forecasting (pertaining to winter). 

While there has been a ton of success with various methods out there relying heavily on analogs, or making a base comparison based on ENSO phase can only go far. I also wish there was a better breakdown of the many indices which exist instead of these "monthly averages". They're fine and good and all but they aren't going to highlight or address short-term phase changes and that is what is most important. 

One example is the WPO which has a very strong correlation to the pattern configuration from the Pacific through North America and you can even argue it may even drive some of the northern hemisphere teleconnections. The WPO can also go through some wild swings on a seasonal basis. 

You can do this just by doing an Oct-Apr daily data lookup on climod2 or the https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org site and looking at the snowfall column. It’s not super fast since you have to keep changing the year to look at other winters but it’s pretty easy. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You can do this just by doing an Oct-Apr daily data lookup on climod2 or the https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org site and looking at the snowfall column. It’s not super fast since you have to keep changing the year to look at other winters but it’s pretty easy. 

This is sick, thanks! 

It would be awesome to compile a breakdown of how many "storms" have occurred each cold season (obviously you would have to establish several definitions here) and then you can assess the pattern averaged seasonally and then break things down further from there...down to a monthly level and then maybe weekly level. 

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is sick, thanks! 

It would be awesome to compile a breakdown of how many "storms" have occurred each cold season (obviously you would have to establish several definitions here) and then you can assess the pattern averaged seasonally and then break things down further from there...down to a monthly level and then maybe weekly level. 

I’ve actually already done this for larger storms for every season going back to 1950 iirc. It’s on my PC but it prob hasn’t been updated for the last couple seasons. I’ll have to post it when I’m back on my PC.

I remember running frequencies of 6+ and 12+ storms at the major climo sites. 

[It's Always Sunny]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can do this just by doing an Oct-Apr daily data lookup on climod2 or the https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org site and looking at the snowfall column. It’s not super fast since you have to keep changing the year to look at other winters but it’s pretty easy. 

Great link! Bookmarking this one. Thanks.

[It's Always Sunny]

What is the main difference between the two? They both appear to have the same functionality.