CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Nick, you have that in monthly format? Wonder if that average is a combo of things there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nick, you have that in monthly format? Wonder if that average is a combo of things there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Ahh...see that helps. If you ignore the colors....it gives you an idea. To me, January blows. You can see the ridging in the east. But the other months...I see a semblance of troughing in the east...that's not bad. I know it shows AN heights....but the actual 500mb look isn't that bad. What it says to me, is that it might be a combo of SWFE or cutters maybe with troughing, but AN heights? January is putrid on that verbatim I think. Plus the Pacific coast of NAMR has a decent look on the other months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ahh...see that helps. If you ignore the colors....it gives you an idea. To me, January blows. You can see the ridging in the east. But the other months...I see a semblance of troughing in the east...that's not bad. I know it shows AN heights....but the actual 500mb look isn't that bad. What it says to me, is that it might be a combo of SWFE or cutters maybe with troughing, but AN heights? January is putrid on that verbatim I think. Plus the Pacific coast of NAMR has a decent look on the other months. Dec looks excellent on that composite. Agree that Jan is dogshit there....hopefully it changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec looks excellent on that composite. Agree that Jan is dogshit there....hopefully it changes. Yeah December looks great. Do you agree about Feb and March? Not sure what to make of it, but it didn't seem too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah December looks great. Do you agree about Feb and March? Not sure what to make of it, but it didn't seem too bad. Yeah Mar looks ok....Feb looks pretty good actually...that would be a lot of overrunning type events and big gradient. Even though we're on the northern edge of the oranges, that's a good spot at H5. You can bet below that level would be frigid on the north side of that gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Mar looks ok....Feb looks pretty good actually...that would be a lot of overrunning type events and big gradient. Even though we're on the northern edge of the oranges, that's a good spot at H5. You can bet below that level would be frigid on the north side of that gradient. Yeah that's how I took it. I thought they were decent. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Sign me up for the over runners as long as were on the right side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Been awhile since we've had a good January right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Been awhile since we've had a good January right? Yep...last legit good January was prob 2018..and even that was mostly dogshit after 1/10....2015 was crap until the last 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Mar looks ok....Feb looks pretty good actually...that would be a lot of overrunning type events and big gradient. Even though we're on the northern edge of the oranges, that's a good spot at H5. You can bet below that level would be frigid on the north side of that gradient. lousy January's in a good winter...1967 comes to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 January 2015 actually got cold by mid month. The snow waited till the last week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: January 2015 actually got cold by mid month. The snow waited till the last week though. It was actually cold almost from the start but we got a couple cutters to interrupt the cold. ORH had a 5 days stretch between 1/6 and 1/10 where 4 of those 5 days had highs in the teens. It was a -4 departure that month. Pretty frigid stuff for peak winter temperature climo...which just adds to how impressive the next month was, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was actually cold almost from the start but we got a couple cutters to interrupt the cold. ORH had a 5 days stretch between 1/6 and 1/10 where 4 of those 5 days had highs in the teens. It was a -4 departure that month. Pretty frigid stuff for peak winter temperature climo...which just adds to how impressive the next month was, lol. I think that added to the frustration. Ginxy telling us how he was going tobogganing on 2" of crust and sending his grandkids to the hospital with concussions. Then to see that bowling ball modeled and that s/w for the event prior to the blizzard....I lost it. Thought that would kick the bowling ball OTS. RIP James. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 maybe we can get winter over with early this year. December in and out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 35 minutes ago, uncle W said: lousy January's in a good winter...1967 comes to mind... 1966-67 in NNJ (some from memory as records were lost) NOV 0" DEC 30.5" JAN 2.0" FEB 31.5" MAR 32.0" APR 4.5" 100.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: maybe we can get winter over with early this year. December in and out. Nah, if it's bare and cold...I hope it's covered in snow. 55 and mud will just make me lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah, if it's bare and cold...I hope it's covered in snow. 55 and mud will just make me lose it. Prayin' for torched snow season for selfish reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Hoping we avoid the "shredder" from last winter. Every system eaten up on approach save a couple events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I’m not a fan of the overall look, December looks good with North Atlantic blocking and a ridge out west. January has the blocking which is great, but there is a massive trough out west. I hate that, hopefully it goes away. February and March are straight up garbage with no North Atlantic blocking and all the cold air locked up around the North Pole. That is a strong polar vortex pattern. This winter pattern verbatim would go out with a whimper and probably be below average in eastern mass. I do think it’s a few adjustments away from being good though, just need a more favorable polar vortex intrusion with it coming into the east instead of out west in Jan, then get one more polar vortex intrusion later in winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, George001 said: I’m not a fan of the overall look, December looks good with North Atlantic blocking and a ridge out west. January has the blocking which is great, but there is a massive trough out west. I hate that, hopefully it goes away. February and March are straight up garbage with no North Atlantic blocking and all the cold air locked up around the North Pole. That is a strong polar vortex pattern. This winter pattern verbatim would go out with a whimper and probably be below average in eastern mass. I do think it’s a few adjustments away from being good though, just need a more favorable polar vortex intrusion with it coming into the east instead of out west in Jan, then get one more polar vortex intrusion later in winter. Guess you didn't care for what Will and I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 I wonder if their color scheme needs a little work. Is a 527 height at the southern tip of Greenland really 26 decameters below normal? (referencing February) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Man that Euro seasonal stuff is horrible. That's not in line with analogs at all.. I guess if Europe win's the war. That's one heck of a -PNA Jan-Mar, can't argue with that though. ECMWF.int Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 hours ago, tamarack said: 1966-67 in NNJ (some from memory as records were lost) NOV 0" DEC 30.5" JAN 2.0" FEB 31.5" MAR 32.0" APR 4.5" 100.5" Two decent blizzards I think in Feb if I have the year right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 17 hours ago, stadiumwave said: I'm starting to lean away to fast start to winter. After a good 3-4th week of NOV expect a less favorable pattern. PV will strengthen until MJO wakes up. If it wakes up PV will take hits again mid-DEC leading to weakening, disruption, possibly a full blown SSW. JAN into 1st half of FEB may be the best potential before ridging takes over after that. Lol One of us is tragically wrong regarding timing. My work is done...will post later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That is a lot of cold in Canada, but man that is playing with fire....a little too close for me verbatim. I'll take that and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 8 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems like we don’t have much of any blocking “these days “ to mid to late March and then into Late April or Early May I would guess that’s generally not great for CP of SNE and that up and in will be favored or just up w Nina (thou averages sorta spell this out) . But guessing there could be more of a gradient than normal. Could be way off and any one (large) storm can change course of season , maybe we have a very good pacific , just (anecdotally) seems like those odds are 10-15% That looks a little blocker than 2007-2008, so I feel good about that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ahh...see that helps. If you ignore the colors....it gives you an idea. To me, January blows. You can see the ridging in the east. But the other months...I see a semblance of troughing in the east...that's not bad. I know it shows AN heights....but the actual 500mb look isn't that bad. What it says to me, is that it might be a combo of SWFE or cutters maybe with troughing, but AN heights? January is putrid on that verbatim I think. Plus the Pacific coast of NAMR has a decent look on the other months. I agree with Euro strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Mar looks ok....Feb looks pretty good actually...that would be a lot of overrunning type events and big gradient. Even though we're on the northern edge of the oranges, that's a good spot at H5. You can bet below that level would be frigid on the north side of that gradient. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Man that Euro seasonal stuff is horrible. That's not in line with analogs at all.. I guess if Europe win's the war. That's one heck of a -PNA Jan-Mar, can't argue with that though. ECMWF.int Maybe not your analogs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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