MJO812 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold May??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 18 hours ago, tamarack said: Nearby places had 8-10" in that 1957 storm - odd that I have no memory on it. (Though the 24" paste Bomb on 3/21-22/58 may have wiped the earlier snow from my mind. And/or the windy and cold February storm, 15-18", which I do recall.) Only 2-3" in that 1958 event. I was in the third grade for the Dec 57 storm...I have vauge memories of it snowing during the day and playing with leftovers days later...NYC got 3-4" in the 1958 storm...I have no recolection of that one... Dec 1958, 1962 and 1963 had at least seven days in a row with a max temp below freezing ending around Dec 20th...62 and 63 was followed by snow and a white Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: I was in the third grade for the Dec 57 storm...I have vauge memories of it snowing during the day and playing with leftovers days later...NYC got 3-4" in the 1958 storm...I have no recolection of that one... Dec 1958, 1962 and 1963 had at least seven days in a row with a max temp below freezing ending around Dec 20th...62 and 63 was followed by snow and a white Christmas... The 2/15-16/1958 storm gave NYC 7.9" of powder and the 17th had a high of 10°. Probably windy as well though I only recall the winds during the snow. On the evening of 3/19 that year we (dad, older bro, me) were at a drizzly Newark AP awaiting mom and little bro. Their bumpy FL to DC flight had to skip the Capital as DCA was closed due to fog so the nice dinner flight from there to Newark disappeared. Mom heard talk of Newfoundland but after some circling the Connie found a home at (then) Idlewild, followed by mom, 2 suitcases and an overtired 4-y.o taking a taxi to Newark. After midnight on the way home we hit snow, which continued all the next day and thru the night into 3/21, piling up ~24" of 30-32° paste - looked the same depth as 3/18-19/56 which my dad measured at 23.5" with snow still accumulating a bit. NYC recorded 11.8" at temps 31-33. (My younger brother made no friends when the airplane hit turbulence from the storm south of DC and he asked mom "When are we going to crash?" In those days, almost every TV drama that showed folks flying showed a plane crash, or at least sufficiently often to impress the little twerp. He thought it was included as part of the ticket price.) Edit: The cold snap in Dec 1962 was memorable as beginning with 4" snow (2.7" NYC) at our NNJ home, followed by 5 days with highs teens/low 20s. It was the week of NJ's 6-day firearms deer season and I would go into the woods after school. On that Thursday, coldest day of the run, I found the pump-action shotgun frozen shut when I tried to unload at the end of legal shooting time. I bent down to blow into the action but leaned a bit too low and both lips were instantly attached to the steel. Fortunately I had just enough sense to freeze (pun intended) in place and puff like a steam engine until the action was thawed, allowing a safe disconnect and unloading. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: That’s a lot of correlation there and vague. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 hours ago, tamarack said: The 2/15-16/1958 storm gave NYC 7.9" of powder and the 17th had a high of 10°. Probably windy as well though I only recall the winds during the snow. On the evening of 3/19 that year we (dad, older bro, me) were at a drizzly Newark AP awaiting mom and little bro. Their bumpy FL to DC flight had to skip the Capital as DCA was closed due to fog so the nice dinner flight from there to Newark disappeared. Mom heard talk of Newfoundland but after some circling the Connie found a home at (then) Idlewild, followed by mom, 2 suitcases and an overtired 4-y.o taking a taxi to Newark. After midnight on the way home we hit snow, which continued all the next day and thru the night into 3/21, piling up ~24" of 30-32° paste - looked the same depth as 3/18-19/56 which my dad measured at 23.5" with snow still accumulating a bit. NYC recorded 11.8" at temps 31-33. (My younger brother made no friends when the airplane hit turbulence from the storm south of DC and he asked mom "When are we going to crash?" In those days, almost every TV drama that showed folks flying showed a plane crash, or at least sufficiently often to impress the little twerp. He thought it was included as part of the ticket price.) Edit: The cold snap in Dec 1962 was memorable as beginning with 4" snow (2.7" NYC) at our NNJ home, followed by 5 days with highs teens/low 20s. It was the week of NJ's 6-day firearms deer season and I would go into the woods after school. On that Thursday, coldest day of the run, I found the pump-action shotgun frozen shut when I tried to unload at the end of legal shooting time. I bent down to blow into the action but leaned a bit too low and both lips were instantly attached to the steel. Fortunately I had just enough sense to freeze (pun intended) in place and puff like a steam engine until the action was thawed, allowing a safe disconnect and unloading. I remember going to school the day after the Feb 1958 storm because school was open...it was cloudy all day...light snows followed that storm...Dec 1960 had a few cold waves that sent temps into single digits after the big blizzard...that storm should have come Christmas eve and day...I have never seen heavy snow falling Christmas morning...that storm and the Jan 61 storm would have been great for Christmas...the 1960's had there share of storms followed by arctic blasts...something you dont see much lately... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 On 10/29/2021 at 11:03 AM, bwt3650 said: I love these forecasts...Jan and Feb will be the coldest part of the winter, it will snow in Canada and storms out of the gulf. Not to discredit the guy, but it seems the posters on this forum do a better job of the difficult long range game and taking a risk with their forecasts. He was very good last season....not to mention calling for a severe Feb during la nina is ballsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 On 10/29/2021 at 8:55 AM, snowman19 said: What are the potential effects of a high solar flux given the current background states? I really haven’t read too much into the solar aspects You would like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 On 10/29/2021 at 12:11 PM, MJOatleast7 said: We're still temporally near the minimum of the cycle even though getting some active sunspots. I think we're still good even with the recent spike given the historically low background state of this cycle. Also, the low but ascending part of the cycle generally seems to do better than the descending part anyways (unless you're near the 11-year peak) Thanks. Solar implications aren't my strong suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You would like it. I see what you mean, massive solar flare/geomagnetic storm going on right now, just saw the news article on it. Supposedly the biggest solar storm and flux in years: https://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2021/10/29/giant-solar-flare-prompts-geomagnetic-storm-warning-for-halloween-weekend/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 22 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a lot of correlation there and vague. The stratosphere draw-upon is faux science, too - He either doesn't really understand how that total mechanical/circulation system works, or... does and doesn't care because he knows his audience is in a different universe as far as any ability to take in what he writes through adequate filter of critical objectivity. Either way, .. irresponsible. The stratospheric warming correlation to the hemisphere is circuited through the mode of the Arctic Domain. There is vague, at best ... correlation between any mere erstwhile static or onset warm upper stratosphere, within the AO domain, and subsequent forcing the mode negative. Crucially, ...the science is about downwelling/propagating mass anomalies. That ring of warmth there? That's not it - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Let’s get a raging +AO from this solar storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 meh...1957-58 was the strongest solar sun spot year and the north east had a very good winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: meh...1957-58 was the strongest solar sun spot year and the north east had a very good winter... I’m kidding. But we watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: meh...1957-58 was the strongest solar sun spot year and the north east had a very good winter... Well heh .. there is a giant gap filled with forces between "strongest solar sun spot year," and a "very good winter." The former does not necessitate that latter, either way - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Looks like we'll be at the mercy of the Pacific for any type of wintry weather. I don't see any signs of blocking. Polar vortex is stout, albeit elongated into NAMR which I suppose is a good thing. I know it weakened in October, but it tries to come back usually when there is an early weakening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 I mean solar factors. But so does ENSO... and lately, HC expansion theory. ... PDO/AMO ... bad or good luck. Pick. Personally, I'm a little less clear on the discrete difference between CME and UV, in the total concept of solar AO correlation/causality. Namely, I wonder actually if the two have the same modulating impact on the Ozone concentration within the upper altitudes of the AO domain. CME's are like clouds of high-energy charged particles ... traveling at Sci Fi dream velocities... But they are not UV (ultra violate ), which is an electromagnetic wave phenomenon ( photon type ). It just so happens that when magnetic entanglements burst over the solar disk, CME mass often coexists with a flash of UV.. The UV gets here in 8 minutes! The CME... up to 72 hours in some cases. Such that active sun-spot eras also are increased UV eras ... But I am not sure that either interacts/effects Ozone in the same way. I happen to know that UV is the appropriate wave length to disassociate 0zone ... I am not sure if these high-energy particulates also do the same, specifically - The impetus there: 0zone is very responsive to thermal absorption from planetary wave phenomenon decaying at very high altitudes - simply termed, it is where warm air advection at mid and upper troposphere, terminates and fade.. usually above 60 N, at very high altitudes. Those plumes interact within the PV at high altitudes, and if there happens to be a +anomaly Ozone concentration, that proficients in absorption "flashes" an onset of warm atmospheric mass ...that starts the whole thing. That mass then ( might ) propagate back downward (crucial behavior in the -AO forcing ), while spreading laterally in space. It usually takes a couple weeks to compete that downwelling... When it reaches the height of the tropopause ( usually around 200 mb, averaged all seasons at those latitudes), its downward momentum weakens the cyclonic physical manifold of PV... ( has to do with ambient stablizing/DVM). Vortex weakens to varying degrees. The ring westerlies around the pole begins to lose coherence, severs... and then alternating troughs and anticyclonic nodes formulate ... a.k.a., 'blocking' and that's the ball-game. +AO --> -AO So, if UV is destroying 0zone, that "cleanses" - for lack of better word - such that the normal dispersion of wave events doesn't "flash" warm events. This is why low solar activity in summer and autumn, tend to precede years with Sudden Stratospheric Warming events - but the key word there is 'tend'. The complexity in this whole relationship manifold is mind boggling. "how much" solar is detrimental to "how much" Ozone is present - perhaps event 'type' of Ozone - are moving amounts in time. That's probably break-point/threshold headaches in hell to uncouple those and figure out what those critical values of either, are. Plus, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation ( west vs east ) is also correlated to the SSW, apparently - makes one wonder if the QBO is indirectly, statistically significant wrt the solar, too. It seems it has to be. Ooph. But ... the forcing appears better explained in the other direction. Anyway, this summer and autumn the sun has decided to go ahead and start firing CME's at the Earth. I don't know what the longer termed UV numbers look like, but I suspect they are somewhat above normal because the two tend to coincide. Lastly, the onset of propagating SSWs doesn't dictate the AO's seasonality a given year. There are -AO and +AO winters, on whole, that may or may not have featured SSWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we'll be at the mercy of the Pacific for any type of wintry weather. I don't see any signs of blocking. Polar vortex is stout, albeit elongated into NAMR which I suppose is a good thing. I know it weakened in October, but it tries to come back usually when there is an early weakening. I’m not feeling good the pac will be helpful this season. It hasn’t in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not feeling good the pac will be helpful this season. It hasn’t in years. I probably won’t be good but I don’t think it will be awful either, it will be somewhere in the middle. I don’t expect the pacific jet to go crazy like it has recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Later in December and especially January could get really interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 10hpa can be too high, I like to look at 50hpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we'll be at the mercy of the Pacific for any type of wintry weather. I don't see any signs of blocking. Polar vortex is stout, albeit elongated into NAMR which I suppose is a good thing. I know it weakened in October, but it tries to come back usually when there is an early weakening. I think there will be some attacks throughout November and December, but agree it will hold its own... which is par for the early season climo course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m not feeling good the pac will be helpful this season. It hasn’t in years. Overall, but you can usually get some bouts of PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 QBO/ENSO/Solar are still pretty close to a 1974-75 and 2017-18 blend. Still think the QBO stuff is kind of bullshit. You can always just match on it by finding common multiples of the QBO & Solar cycle lengths and filtering by ENSO in the way a 2 year cycle and a 7 year cycle would always align at 14 years. I never actually look to match on it specifically, I just know the periodicity of the solar cycle can "look for" QBO matches so to speak. (See how 1974 and 2017 are 3 solar cycles x 11 years apart, and both off in a solar sense by ~2 QBO cycles? My sense is the weirdness with the QBO cycle recently was largely tied to it getting misaligned from the solar cycle to some extent, and so the Super Nino weirdness kind of fixed it, timing wise). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 We are really due for a -WPO winter. The last winter that we had a predominately -WPO was 2013-2014. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 the October nao number is not posted yet but I bet its at least -1sd...some other none el nino years with a strongly neg Oct. nao...since 1993 NYC has averaged over 45" of snow which is 50% above average... 2020... 2013... 2012... 2010... 2005... 2003... 1993... 1988... 1981... 1980... 1975... 1973... 1970... 1966... 1960... 1955... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 I'm starting to lean away to fast start to winter. After a good 3-4th week of NOV expect a less favorable pattern. PV will strengthen until MJO wakes up. If it wakes up PV will take hits again mid-DEC leading to weakening, disruption, possibly a full blown SSW. JAN into 1st half of FEB may be the best potential before ridging takes over after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 I think you'd argue that's a pretty good Nina look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 That is a lot of cold in Canada, but man that is playing with fire....a little too close for me verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 23 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we'll be at the mercy of the Pacific for any type of wintry weather. I don't see any signs of blocking. Polar vortex is stout, albeit elongated into NAMR which I suppose is a good thing. I know it weakened in October, but it tries to come back usually when there is an early weakening. Seems like we don’t have much of any blocking “these days “ to mid to late March and then into Late April or Early May I would guess that’s generally not great for CP of SNE and that up and in will be favored or just up w Nina (thou averages sorta spell this out) . But guessing there could be more of a gradient than normal. Could be way off and any one (large) storm can change course of season , maybe we have a very good pacific , just (anecdotally) seems like those odds are 10-15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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