Winter 2021-2022

[CoastalWx]

We pray.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Came across an interesting article examining the relationship between QBO and MJO. Postulates that since 1980, an easterly QBO has enhanced the MJO and made the waves last longer, which augments model skill during the winter. The opposite is the case in westerly years....ie, shorter and more incoherent MJO waves lead to poorer model performance.

The impact on guidance at least makes sense to me.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00173-9

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Came across an interesting article examining the relationship between QBO and MJO. Postulates that since 1980, an easterly QBO has enhanced the MJO and made the waves last longer, which augments model skill during the winter. The opposite is the case in westerly years....ie, shorter and more incoherent MJO waves lead to poorer model performance.

The impact on guidance at least makes sense to me.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00173-9

I think that implies a colder stratosphere in the tropics. So if I'm not mistaken, that would help promote deeper convection in the troposphere vs what you typically find in a stratosphere that is warmer than normal and has a lapse rate of temperature increasing with height. Intuitively it makes sense. Deeper convection can penetrate farther into the stratopshere in the tropics under a -QBO regime.

[ORH_wxman]

Weak La Nina is definitely gaining steam in the model guidance

 

 

[George001]

In recent weeks, the chances that we will have a favorable enso state for New England snow has increased significantly, with the newest guidance, especially the dynamical models shifting from an enso neutral (roughly 0 to -.3 degrees celsius) forecast) to a high end weak la nina (-.8 to -.9 degrees celsius). In my opinion, the shift from a cold neutral to a borderline weak/moderate strength Nina increases the ceiling of the upcoming winter with more northern stream interaction vs a cold neutral, creating more chances for severe Miller b blizzards. 

[ORH_wxman]

Weak cold neutral would be fine too....both cold neutral and weak La Nina are favorable states for New England.

I have a gut feeling we'll see the return of cold SWFEs this winter...ENSO state sort of supports it, but we're due for a frigid Canada after a couple of torch winters to our north.

[512high]

Once again, thanks Ray for keeping us all posted, and to all the mets the chip in their opinions and others, hopefully a more positive vibe this upcoming winter for snow lovers

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weak cold neutral would be fine too....both cold neutral and weak La Nina are favorable states for New England.

I have a gut feeling we'll see the return of cold SWFEs this winter...ENSO state sort of supports it, but we're due for a frigid Canada after a couple of torch winters to our north.

Yep. I'm not sure that we have ever had two consecutive la nina events both pull that BLSW crap that the last one did. I will certainly bet against a repeat next year with a high degree of confidence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would rather weak la nina, but cold neutral is fine...not a huge deal.

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep. I'm not sure that we have ever had two consecutive la nina events both pull that BLSW crap that the last one did. I will certainly bet against a repeat next year with a high degree of confidence.

BLNE?

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

BLNE?

Ray is going to watch like 3 Weymouth jacks this winter on OES enhancement in frigid airmasses.

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray is going to watch like 3 Weymouth jacks this winter on OES enhancement in frigid airmasses.

Or the IP line racing NE and stopping just shy of PSM.   

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Or the IP line racing NE and stopping just shy of PSM.   

As soon as he moves back south of Methuen, he's going to get porked by a 3/4-6/01 storm where Methuen gets 30" and he gets 18-20".

[George001]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would rather weak la nina, but cold neutral is fine...not a huge deal.

I remember the winter of 2012-2013 and 2013-14 were both cold neutrals, I would gladly take a repeat of either of those.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

I remember the winter of 2012-2013 and 2013-14 were both cold neutrals, I would gladly take a repeat of either of those.

La Nada has been a bit AN for Maine, though my much shorter POR is BN due to 05-06 counting for more of my 7-season group than for the full 22.  2012-13 was pretty much on my average as Nemo's best failed to get here, while 13-14 had no blockbusters but a lot of medium-large events and great retention, aided by a snowy and very cold March.

[CoastalWx]

Lets go 08-09 baby. I think many would be happy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray is going to watch like 3 Weymouth jacks this winter on OES enhancement in frigid airmasses.

Highly doubt that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

As soon as he moves back south of Methuen, he's going to get porked by a 3/4-6/01 storm where Methuen gets 30" and he gets 18-20".

LOL I probably have about 3 more years before I head back south a bit.

[ORH_wxman]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets go 08-09 baby. I think many would be happy.

Yeah that was a pretty uniformly good season across most of New England. There weren't any extreme jackpot zones and few true screw zones. CT Valley may have been a little on the light side and maybe the outer Cape was struggling to reach average, but otherwise hard to find any spots below average.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a pretty uniformly good season across most of New England. There weren't any extreme jackpot zones and few true screw zones. CT Valley may have been a little on the light side and maybe the outer Cape was struggling to reach average, but otherwise hard to find any spots below average.

 

 

Hingham COOP had 73". Pretty dam good.

[SJonesWX]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a pretty uniformly good season across most of New England. There weren't any extreme jackpot zones and few true screw zones. CT Valley may have been a little on the light side and maybe the outer Cape was struggling to reach average, but otherwise hard to find any spots below average.

 

 

we take. Had a great Dec and Jan, but Feb was just OK with 14". bump that up a tad and we don't complain

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

we take. Had a great Dec and Jan, but Feb was just OK with 14". bump that up a tad and we don't complain

It was definitely a more traditional front-loaded Nina that finished with a wimper, but the first half was pretty damned good. January had no torches at all for those who like the prolonged snowpack getting deeper and deeper during the coldest climo days of winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a pretty uniformly good season across most of New England. There weren't any extreme jackpot zones and few true screw zones. CT Valley may have been a little on the light side and maybe the outer Cape was struggling to reach average, but otherwise hard to find any spots below average.

 

 

82.5" and beat ORH...take. Methuen probably had near 90".

[SJonesWX]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was definitely a more traditional front-loaded Nina that finished with a wimper, but the first half was pretty damned good. January had no torches at all for those who like the prolonged snowpack getting deeper and deeper during the coldest climo days of winter.

i remember having a very nice snow pack in early March, then it must have torched because i also remember it disappearing quickly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was definitely a more traditional front-loaded Nina that finished with a wimper, but the first half was pretty damned good. January had no torches at all for those who like the prolonged snowpack getting deeper and deeper during the coldest climo days of winter.

I went a month in January during which it pretty much remained below freezing. Pretty steady stream of moderate snowfalls....kind of 1994 like, though modified a bit.

[tamarack]

Would love to experience another band like 2/22-23/09 - 9" in 2:45 and 18" in 7:30.  Then the March 2 storm busted, 5.6" with forecast 8-12 and less than 2" after that.  (Two straight years with early March busts - the 10-14" "Manitoba Mauler for 3/1/08 verified at 6.1", stopping pack growth at 48".)
January 2009's max was 31° here, on 3 different days, the only </=32 month I've recorded since Jan. '85 in Ft. Kent.  (Max was 22 that month but it only cracked -20 once; 2nd lowest was -17.  1983 with -19 was the only other January of 10 there that failed to touch -30.)  

[George001]

I don’t know how relevant this is but the strength of the La Niña is expected to peak in the fall, not the winter. With the winter of 2017-2018, (this upcoming Nina is forecasted to be similar in strength), the Nina didn’t peak until later. The La Niña hadn’t even formed yet by mid fall in 2017-2018, where as last year we were already at a high end moderate La Niña, 1995-1996 was already borderline moderate, and 2010-2011 was already a strong La Niña.

My thought process is that when a La Niña increases in strength throughout the fall, by December whatever lag effect from when the Nina first forms to when the atmosphere responds with a Nina like pattern has already happened by December. This is a big deal for early winter, as I would think a Nina that peaks in the fall by December the Nina is already dominating the pattern, like Dec 2010, Dec 2020, Dec 1995, ect. In early winter, climo is not favorable enough that a purely southern stream system will get it done, that will likely just be a cold rain (like the early dec system last year, the one before the severe blizzard in mid December). You need the northern stream to get involved, otherwise eastern mass will get skunked. A La Niña pattern is more favorable for northern stream interaction leading to more snow NYC north early winter. Therefore my early thoughts are we have a decent shot at an active December with several Miller b blizzards, whether or not that pans out will depend on how the Enso forecast changes, and whether or not we get the polar vortex to cooperate. If the polar vortex goes to the North Pole and sits there the whole winter, it won’t matter what the Enso state is, we will be screwed like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012. Those years both had favorable enso states for New England, but there just wasn’t enough cold with it all being bottled up in the North Pole. If we can get even a little bit of polar vortex cooperation in early December, watch out, we could have Dec 2010 all over again.

[NorEastermass128]

Salisbury looks like a decent spot for good snows. It’s got some latitude, not so far E like Cape Ann, but far enough NE to benefit from late blooming Miller B’s. I estimate climo to be 60” or so per year. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

La Nada has been a bit AN for Maine, though my much shorter POR is BN due to 05-06 counting for more of my 7-season group than for the full 22.  2012-13 was pretty much on my average as Nemo's best failed to get here, while 13-14 had no blockbusters but a lot of medium-large events and great retention, aided by a snowy and very cold March.

Yeah 2013-2014 was a good winter but it left a lot on the table in my opinion, we narrowly missed a historic blizzard in late March that year, I remember the models had the strength of the low into the 940s at one point, if that had came up the coast, that would have likely been a widespread 3 footer. Even the severe blizzard in March 2018 that dropped 2 feet of snow where I live got down to the low 960s, just imagine a low in the 940s that is a slow mover coming up the coast! Had that storm hit, that winter would have been up there with the 2014-2015, 2010-2011, 1977-1978, 2004-2005, and 1995-1996 winters. 

[tamarack]

I don't think the OV Monster of 1978 got particularly close to the 940s, maybe low 950s, though this is pulled from deep memory and thus suspect.  Lowest I've seen in Maine was CAR's 957 in the 1976 Groundhog Day gale.