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Winter 2021-2022


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17 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Are we supposed to take something posted by someone named “Joestramus” seriously? I’m more inclined to believe a forecast from Joestrami… on rye… with mustard.

He is a great guy and a good meteorologist  in NYC for years.

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1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Off topic question....I may have asked this before and forgot to take note of it (or check in on the person's response) but what is the general cause for NW trends for coastals? Beta drift or something else? Thanks in advance.

I haven't read super recent literature on this, but a decade-plus ago it was undersampling of shortwave energy and underestimating latent heat release in the warm sector which provides a feedback to amplifying the trough. I suspect the data sampling issues aren't as bad as they used to be, but the latent heat problems would still persist to an extent given how most of our guidance obeys hydrostatic balance.

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15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I haven't read super recent literature on this, but a decade-plus ago it was undersampling of shortwave energy and underestimating latent heat release in the warm sector which provides a feedback to amplifying the trough. I suspect the data sampling issues aren't as bad as they used to be, but the latent heat problems would still persist to an extent given how most of our guidance obeys hydrostatic balance.

Makes sense. Have you noticed the NAM having less of a NW tug with coastals since it is non-hydrostatic? Tbh I don't look at the NAM as much as I should so I can't say whether or not that tendency is there.

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On 10/27/2021 at 10:17 AM, MJO812 said:

LA Ninas are notorious for early starts to winter and then a warmup in the 2nd half. Let's hope we get blocking this winter.

1998-99 was ridiculously warm until late December.  1999-00 had not a trace of snow at BOS until mid January.   2007-08 was warm but a snowy December. I don’t consider snowy December’s early.  Growing up in NNJ, it seems we always had a good snow in the first half of December.

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

1998-99 was ridiculously warm until late December.  1999-00 had not a trace of snow at BOS until mid January.   2007-08 was warm but a snowy December. I don’t consider snowy December’s early.  Growing up in NNJ, it seems we always had a good snow in the first half of December.

We had an exceptionally good run of Decembers in the 2000s....been a little bleaker since then, though the last two years have featured pretty big storms in December. They just got ruined by Grinch storms, lol.

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had an exceptionally good run of Decembers in the 2000s....been a little bleaker since then, though the last two years have featured pretty big storms in December. They just got ruined by Grinch storms, lol.

I'm betting against a Grincher this season.

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

1998-99 was ridiculously warm until late December.  1999-00 had not a trace of snow at BOS until mid January.   2007-08 was warm but a snowy December. I don’t consider snowy December’s early.  Growing up in NNJ, it seems we always had a good snow in the first half of December.

Maybe it's precise location, but in my NNJ days only 1960 featured a snowfall that was bigger (way bigger) than moderate during the 1st half of December.  1966 had a 31-32° dump of 7" on 12/13 that was gone in 24 hours but that's probably #2 for 12/1-15 from when I became aware of snowfall size about 1954 until moving north in early 1973.

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45 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe it's precise location, but in my NNJ days only 1960 featured a snowfall that was bigger (way bigger) than moderate during the 1st half of December.  1966 had a 31-32° dump of 7" on 12/13 that was gone in 24 hours but that's probably #2 for 12/1-15 from when I became aware of snowfall size about 1954 until moving north in early 1973.

1957-12/5 had close to a foot

1958-around 12/8 5 inches

1960 as mentioned-18-20 inches 

That’s a good run in my formative years.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

1957-12/5 had close to a foot

1958-around 12/8 5 inches

1960 as mentioned-18-20 inches 

That’s a good run in my formative years.

That’s like the weenies in the mid-Atlantic getting storms on 12/5 between 2002-2007 so if you were super young growing up during that period you thought it should always snow in early December there.

I think 4 of those years had at least advisory snows? (2002, 2003, 2005, 2007...the latter two being weak events that didn’t produce much up here in New England)

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11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LC

 

Screenshot_20211029-104823_Facebook.jpg

Screenshot_20211029-104834_Facebook.jpg

I love these forecasts...Jan and Feb will be the coldest part of the winter, it will snow in Canada and storms out of the gulf.  Not to discredit the guy, but it seems the posters on this forum do a better job of the difficult long range game and taking a risk with their forecasts.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

What are the potential effects of a high solar flux given the current background states? I really haven’t read too much into the solar aspects

We're still temporally near the minimum of the cycle even though getting some active sunspots. I think we're still good even with the recent spike given the historically low background state of this cycle. Also, the low but ascending part of the cycle generally seems to do better than the descending part anyways (unless you're near the 11-year peak)

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2 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said:

We're still temporally near the minimum of the cycle even though getting some active sunspots. I think we're still good even with the recent spike given the historically low background state of this cycle. Also, the low but ascending part of the cycle generally seems to do better than the descending part anyways (unless you're near the 11-year peak)

Didn't last winter have an uptick too?

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45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the Nina stays coupled then I would buy it. Early season blocking is also strongly favored due to weak PV.

Yeah but that is an El Niño pacific there which makes me skeptical. There’s a huge Aleutian low where normally in La Niña we see a high/ridge there. The key in La Niña is to get the ridge poleward so it’s shooting up into AK/Bering Strait. 

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On 10/28/2021 at 5:10 PM, weathafella said:

1957-12/5 had close to a foot

1958-around 12/8 5 inches

1960 as mentioned-18-20 inches 

That’s a good run in my formative years.

Nearby places had 8-10" in that 1957 storm - odd that I have no memory on it.  (Though the 24" paste Bomb on 3/21-22/58 may have wiped the earlier snow from my mind.  And/or the windy and cold February storm, 15-18", which I do recall.)  Only 2-3" in that 1958 event.

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It's interesting looking at the near term. Eyeballing it, the AO looks positive but the NAO is negative. We're in the weird La Nina transitional pattern now that happens in a lot of November. But even so, I'd expect that NAO/AO split to show up in the winter a couple times.

For what it's worth, NDJ seems to oscillate in La Ninas from the SE or SW being hottest by how active the Atlantic hurricane season. These are the La Ninas since 1990 by ACE Index. Pretty obvious where the biggest impact is, but the West/Central heat has downwind impacts for the East too.

Relatively inactive (<160).

Screenshot-2021-10-29-6-08-16-PM

Highly active (>160)

Screenshot-2021-10-29-6-11-28-PM

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