Winter 2021-2022

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My wife and I have talked about trying to move there lol.  She loves experiencing different cultures and I love skiing and big snow.  A good match.  The amount of snow that falls in many of those big ski resort towns is obscene and it’s high quality powder too.  It’s like lake effect dumps that have a bit more moisture from coming across the ocean instead of a lake.  Salt nuclei and all.

It’s where my avatar is from, ha.

30 years ago that area was probably a secret powder skiing heaven, but now the word is definitely out. Covid messed up my plans to finally visit. There's a lot to like about Japan. Interesting culture for sure. And there are certainly a lot of fascinating geological and meteorological phenomena. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

30 years ago that area was probably a secret powder skiing heaven, but now the word is definitely out. Covid messed up my plans to finally visit. There's a lot to like about Japan. Interesting culture for sure. And there are certainly a lot of fascinating geological and meteorological phenomena. 

Word is certainly out.  It’s a huge destination now, all of the areas.  But with that comes economic possibilities and jobs.

So many of of the villages are just insane looking for winter weather loving crowd.

Even the ability to just spend a couple seasons there would be incredible.  I won’t lie I’ve looked, theres a lot of demand for English speaking labor force at all levels due to the sharp influx in tourists from those countries.

I’d go even just to live at a subsistence level and enjoy the snowfall and culture for a whole winter.  The experience would be worth so much to look back on when older.

[George001]

2 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Aomori Japan

If all my forecasts came to reality

[George001]

10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Joe D gone wild. 
 

 

Looks like he’s going for an average winter in eastern mass with a bit above average north and west. I wouldn’t say it’s a particularly aggressive forecast. Nothing wrong with that, he could very well be right. Hopefully we get a little bit more blocking than expected and a cooperative polar vortex. Signals are mixed right now, I’m looking forward to seeing Rays and Isotherms forecasts in early November.

[weathafella]

7 hours ago, mreaves said:

Northern Japan.  Watch the first episode of this show

 

The snowball fight regulated including the making of the snowballs is classic.

[Great Snow 1717]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

If all my forecasts came to reality

A billion  times better chance of Franchy winning the MVP AWARD for next 10 seasons while batting .800 and averaging 80 HR's per season....

[EastonSN+]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

Looks like he’s going for an average winter in eastern mass with a bit above average north and west. I wouldn’t say it’s a particularly aggressive forecast. Nothing wrong with that, he could very well be right. Hopefully we get a little bit more blocking than expected and a cooperative polar vortex. Signals are mixed right now, I’m looking forward to seeing Rays and Isotherms forecasts in early November.

Yeah, seems to definitely be a gradient too with Hartford slightly above/near average and Providence slightly below.

[EastonSN+]

Hoping for a 2008/2009 type gradient. Not sure what the background state was, however down here in SW CT (was in Norwalk at the time), had an above average snowfall season with a good amount of ice.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hoping for a 2008/2009 type gradient. Not sure what the background state was, however down here in SW CT (was in Norwalk at the time), had an above average snowfall season with a good amount of ice.

'08-09 was a weak La Nina (2nd year Nina)....it's actually not a bad analog for this season's background state. It's looking better and better too because of the PDO taking a nose-dive this summer and into autumn.

You can also see the cool SST anomalies now extending from the ENSO regions to the west coast....that is something we have not seen since 2012 which had it lingering from the remnants of the 2010-2011, 2011-2012 Ninas. The 2016-2018 two year Nina didn't have it and neither did last year's Nina. This is a return to a more classic Nina SSTA pattern. Look at the difference between last year's Nina and this year's in the North Pacific from the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. This is much more reminiscent of the Ninas from 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and the 2010-2012 episode.

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I think we can go back to +EPO for the Winter. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I think all the SSTAs show is that we can go back to -NAO 

https://ibb.co/4jmgx7T    https://ibb.co/BgXNxyb

[Typhoon Tip]

Old habits die hard ...

[Damage In Tolland]

Is that really Chucky?

[StormchaserChuck!]

There was a nice global cooling in 1992 that popped the NAO- 

https://ibb.co/WG16TCn

[Typhoon Tip]

I dunno -

these autuman/seasonal book-end -NAOs have been a repeating theme for a decade now, regardless of ENSO types leading/during/enduring...

I don't know if this is really "caused" by La Nina - it is just as likely that:

a   it is coincidentally occurring; whatever reason is driving the seasonal pro-lapse/lapse at either end phenomenon, happens to be happening when La Nina appears more coherent. We shouldn't get happy about connecting the dots when it's true/been true in multiple varied leading factorization.

b   it is both ...so the NAO is being augmented, but still cannot be "entirely" attributed to ENSO in that sense.

c   all ENSO driven ...which is what I suspect a lot of seasonal educated guess-work would prefer, because that's just an older popular mantra that - yes - has been shown to be (at least) statistically significant in climate efforts ..blah blah.  But I caution that CC is making those historical inferences less confident moving forward.  This has been hugely suggested actually, as the last two hefty warm ENSOs did not bear as much "El Nino destructive fruit" when observing the typical climate routes -

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno -

these autuman/seasonal book-end -NAOs have been a repeating theme for a decade now, regardless of ENSO types leading/during/enduring...

I don't know if this is really "caused" by La Nina - it is just as likely that:

a   it is coincidentally occurring; whatever reason is driving the seasonal pro-lapse/lapse at either end phenomenon, happens to be happening when La Nina appears more coherent. We shouldn't get happy about connecting the dots when it's true/been true in multiple varied leading factorization.

b   it is both ...so the NAO is being augmented, but still cannot be "entirely" attributed to ENSO in that sense.

c   all ENSO driven ...which is what I suspect a lot of seasonal educated guess-work would prefer, because that's just an older popular mantra that - yes - has been shown to be (at least) statistically significant in climate efforts ..blah blah.  But I caution that CC is making those historical inferences less confident moving forward.  This has been hugely suggested actually, as the last two hefty warm ENSOs did not bear as much "El Nino destructive fruit" when observing the typical climate routes -

 

At least this year actually looks like a La Nina over the Pacific rather than just a thin strip of below normal SSTAs in the ENSO region....look at the difference between last year and this year I posted further above. Huge difference despite the La Nina actually being a little weaker this year....but in practice, it will probably act stronger and more typical than last year's did. That would be my guess anyway based off the look.

That still doesn't tell us whether we'll get a lot of snow of course....you can have classic La Nina look still produce a total blowtorch ala 1999-2000 or 2011-2012 if a vortex sets up over AK/Bering Strait, but the other features will still be present like -PNA and SE ridge, etc, etc.

[stadiumwave]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least this year actually looks like a La Nina over the Pacific rather than just a thin strip of below normal SSTAs in the ENSO region....look at the difference between last year and this year I posted further above. Huge difference despite the La Nina actually being a little weaker this year....but in practice, it will probably act stronger and more typical than last year's did. That would be my guess anyway based off the look.

That still doesn't tell us whether we'll get a lot of snow of course....you can have classic La Nina look still produce a total blowtorch ala 1999-2000 or 2011-2012 if a vortex sets up over AK/Bering Strait, but the other features will still be present like -PNA and SE ridge, etc, etc.

 

Of course, but then there's this:

 

So many factors can make a massive difference. 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Of course, but then there's this:

 

 

 

So many factors can make a massive difference. 

Yeah, I mean, if you have a -3 SD block in the Davis Strait, then that will definitely overwhelm typical Nina SE ridge climo for sure.

[dryslot]

12 hours ago, George001 said:

If all my forecasts came to reality

And this outcome is more likely with your forecast.

[StormchaserChuck!]

^ Dec 2010 reference

https://ibb.co/L5kQsKK

[stadiumwave]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, I mean, if you have a -3 SD block in the Davis Strait, then that will definitely overwhelm typical Nina SE ridge climo for sure.

Right. BTW, was not saying this winter is going to be 2010-11. There are several years that serve as analogs for NPAC SST's in OCT: 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1971, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013. It's just amazing how different all those winters were...some polar opposites. 

BTW, 2007 is probably #1 match, but probably means zippo at this point.

I'm just not a fan of typical climo, cookie-cutter predictions. It's not really yhat simple, which you of all I know...knows this. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Right. BTW, was not saying this winter is going to be 2010-11. There are several years that serve as analogs for NPAC SST's in OCT: 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1971, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013. It's just amazing how different all those winters were...some polar opposites. 

BTW, 2007 is probably #1 match, but probably means zippo at this point.

I'm just not a fan of typical climo, cookie-cutter predictions. It's not really yhat simple, which you of all I know...knows this. 

In the mod/stronger cases, it's usually hard to get a +PNA in a La Nina. We actually managed it for the first 2 months of last winter despite Nina being moderate....but then again, those SSTAs in the N PAC looked more like an El Nino.

But even popping a +PNA for like 1 month during a La Nina can be pretty helpful....Jan 2011 and Jan 2009 are both +PNA months within a sea of otherwise -PNA pattern and they really gave the eastern US a sustained wintry period. Jan 2011's +PNA was well-timed too as it really popped big once the 1/12/11 storm reversed the big NAO block....so instead of a relaxation that comes with the NAO going more neutral/positive, we stayed cold and snowy with the +PNA ridge out west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think most of this forum would sign up for 2007 with some blocking. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Right. BTW, was not saying this winter is going to be 2010-11. There are several years that serve as analogs for NPAC SST's in OCT: 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1971, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013. It's just amazing how different all those winters were...some polar opposites. 

BTW, 2007 is probably #1 match, but probably means zippo at this point.

I'm just not a fan of typical climo, cookie-cutter predictions. It's not really yhat simple, which you of all I know...knows this. 

Most of those seasons were pretty good.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think most of this forum would sign up for 2007 with some blocking. 

Didn’t 2007 have a lot of quick moving 6-10 inches of snow to rain events, with a sharp gradient? If we had that type of pattern but with some blocking, would that would mean many of those quick movers that go over to rain at the end become slow moving miller bs that stay snow?

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

Didn’t 2007 have a lot of quick moving 6-10 inches of snow to rain events, with a sharp gradient? If we had that type of pattern but with some blocking, would that would mean many of those quick movers that go over to rain at the end become slow moving miller bs that stay snow?

Theoretically speaking, yes.

[MJO812]

[PhineasC]

Ski season seems a ways off when NH can't even get below freezing, but we'll see.

[alex]

6 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Ski season seems a ways off when NH can't even get below freezing, but we'll see.

It turns quickly 

[MJO812]