Winter 2021-2022

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That guy has turned into a complete clown! For him to even tweet something so dam dumb and infantile, is proof he’s a farce.  What a jamoke. 

I think sometimes he tries to overcompensate bc he knows he has kind of a reputation as Kevin with a PHD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a personal perspective on how climate change seems to be manifesting amid just our little nook of the world, that I suspect may rub some the wrong way - ..well, maybe GL/SE Canada and upper MA can be thrown into to the pot.  It's more to do with p-type tendencies.

It's a sentiment I recall writing about a few short years ago in a post event that featured too-long-to-read rates ...  lol

We seem to "fail winter," more prodigiously on the under performance side of a curve IF/when we don't have antecedent EPO loading patterns REALLY enabling.  

...this matters.  It is more than symbolically as though we need the direct input of cold supply from deeper richer sourcing, because the home grown cold is tending to not be enought as much as previous climate generations.  I have at times referred to the, "flop direction" being liquid now, where marginal scenarios modeled verify decimals too warm more frequently, and/or ..they just don't have enough BL resistance typology leading our storm tracks to 'hold it in' as impenetrable as say ...1950 - 1998 ... (but the this end date is just slide-able by 10 years later... )

I almost see what is happening now/over the last 2 or so weeks, as a crude early sort of example how we need cold direct loading - just to verify cool incursions. We've bounced the PNA positive to negative, now climbing positive, while sustaining primarily -NAO phase states since late September, and just anecdotally .. I don't recall ever observing this many above normal diurnals within a realm governed by that kind of mass-field indication/telecon character... Oh I'm sure it has happened while you someone has now gon' fastidiously trying to say this happens all the time to bargain not having to face the implications of it ... lol. 

Just kidding, but seriously ...  2015 was direct cold loading from Kamchatka over the Alaskan arc down to Lake Erie... and all storms were talcum powder cobwebs.  It seems the gap is widening, where the mid ranged ratio events are getting fewer, in lieu of either overloaded cold or tending to cold liquid as the the base-line/so to be base-line

Interesting take...makes sense. 

[WinterWolf]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think sometimes he tries to overcompensate bc he knows he has kind of a reputation as Kevin with a PHD.

I suppose it could be. 

[raindancewx]

If you look at the forecasts for the North Pacific, the next big Kamchatka low around 10/27 is forecast to move/obliterate the recent very persistent North Pacific high placement. That would translate using the Bering Sea Rule to a big pattern change for the US around 11/13-11/17. My analogs had a big pattern flip ~11/15 when I did my winter outlook. I'm inclined to believe the the 10/27 low off Kamchatka is real, as is the following change in the North Pacific. But it's obviously speculative until we get closer.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 10/19/2021 at 8:21 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Recency bias.

NWS real-estates blizzard warnings far in a way more frequently then when we were kids - to go with that recency angle … est that newer practice began maybe ten years back I wanna say.  Probably coinciding with the criteria changes most likely. Not saying that’s wrong - it’s its own discussion.

But I wonder if part of poster’s liberal usage in here stems from these more recent 10 years of nearly all mere mid grade cyclones or > seem to be earning the dramatic hunters orange merit badges pinned on the weather maps. 

Over usage tends to depreciates to pedestrian use, in that sense … —> posters having lesser abashed filters.

Anecdotally … we’ve been under a handful of blizzard warnings locally/IMBY/surrounding towns in the last 10 years that I recall where we didn’t really verify, either - lends to wondering if some of that increased NWS use/headlining is also ‘over’ use, too

Anyway with the frequency I’m seeing blizzard headlines applied, regardless of their validity or reasons …, it seems if 5 cold nor’easters struck this year, raw dumb %ages based on NWS alone might mean 2 of those are apt to be “warning” events.  

[MJOatleast7]

If you look at the forecasts for the North Pacific, the next big Kamchatka low around 10/27 is forecast to move/obliterate the recent very persistent North Pacific high placement. That would translate using the Bering Sea Rule to a big pattern change for the US around 11/13-11/17. My analogs had a big pattern flip ~11/15 when I did my winter outlook. I'm inclined to believe the the 10/27 low off Kamchatka is real, as is the following change in the North Pacific. But it's obviously speculative until we get closer.

GFS shows it…complete with fantasy cane at the same time.


.

[Typhoon Tip]

We also are a dysfunctional culture of raging litigates now doing möbius loops over outcomes like buzzards. 

Agencies charged with notification feel like in order to idiot proof their org from the siege of assholes looking to recoup money for their own lack of responsibility in matters like tors and canes and snowstorms, maybe offices are throwin hands and over calling everything. No one can sue for being less injured then warned …  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, buy the November change...just a matter of how deeply into the month it takes.  Won't be immediate because we need to build a cold supply.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/6/2021 at 10:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just a little sneak preview....here is my preliminary, rough forecast composite for October....looks decent.

 

On 10/6/2021 at 10:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Different story in November

Patience...

[stadiumwave]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, buy the November change...just a matter of how deeply into the month it takes.  Won't be immediate because we need to build a cold supply.

 

Later the better. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Later the better. 

Yeah... maybe next April 1

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, buy the November change...just a matter of how deeply into the month it takes.  Won't be immediate because we need to build a cold supply.

EPS are starting to show it too near the end of the run...you can see how the N PAC is definitely shuffling. It could be rushed, but I'm leaning toward the change....it fits a lot of La Nina climo anyway.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's going to be hard to parse out what is forecasting debonaire, vs what is just normal seasonal migration of the pattern/tendencies, though. Particularly as it relates to advancing,    " ...just how late in November it happens..." sentiments, though.  And I also wonder about GEFs and or EPS and or GEPs means way out there, too -

I mean, yeah, we have years that butt-boned Novembers... 

We have had Novembers, however rare, that are quite amiable to winter enthusiasts.  

But if one looks at all Novembers since Columbus stole the America's for spice, or the Conquistador ransacked for gold while attempting to annex their brand of imperialism ... that time of the year between Nov 1 and Dec 1 - I strongly hunch - demos shedding some 20 to 30 dm in the basal state, non-hydrostatic hgt depths of the atmosphere between 160W/40 N to 50W/40 N.

Which concomitantly means ... the gradient has increased --> velocities ( ambient ) have seasonally increased --> the establishment R-waves spacing --> in situ "pattern canvas" will have emerged/been exposed. That's all going to happen whether one forecasts it to, or not.  

So this isn't a gripe ..but more a philosophy/pragmatic question.  Obviously La Nina Novembers have their climatology - but ... I also suggest the ENSO stuff is still mangled by CC, and the forcing on the global circulation machinery is still being suspect when it comes to that "macro-metric" driver.  

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ugly 

 

[CoastalWx]

The graphic doesn't tell me much. Define "mild". Most winters now are AN anyways. I think more care about snow.

[PhineasC]

Mild'ish is fine. It wasn't that cold last year either. My issue was that it barely precipitated up here in Feb and March.

[weathafella]

18 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That guy has turned into a complete clown! For him to even tweet something so dam dumb and infantile, is proof he’s a farce.  What a jamoke. 

What’s dumb or infantile about his tweet?   

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What’s dumb or infantile about his tweet?   

That he knows that is a crap model, and it doesn’t do well, especially from a ways out in time.  Yet he tweets it and acts like it is a skilled model. He’s stirring the pot, and creating controversy.  He knows that model sucks sh*t….he should have said so in the tweet.  

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ugly 

 

NOAA’s forecast forever say the same crap each year.  We see the same graphic year in and year out.  50% chance or greater of milder than normal temps each year from them, and some brown or orange colors. 50% chance or greater of spaghetti and meatballs too…I mean come on already.  
 

I guess we can say that there's a 50% chance it’s cooler and snowier than normal too?  It can Work both ways.  

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That he knows that is a crap model, and it doesn’t do well, especially from a ways out in time.  Yet he tweets it and acts like it is a skilled model. He’s stirring the pot, and creating controversy.  He knows that model sucks sh*t….he should have said so in the tweet.  

But he tweeted it was a crap model and he said “if it’s right”.   Everything he tweeted was factual.  He tweeted the model prog and acknowledged the model sucks. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But he tweeted it was a crap model and he said “if it’s right”.   Everything he tweeted was factual.  He tweeted the model prog and acknowledged the model sucks. 

Jerry he did that on purpose.  I didn’t see him acknowledge that…maybe I missed it. In the post Kevin posted I didn’t see that.
 

And “If it’s right?”  We know and he knows it’s dead wrong.  Permanent ridge in the east from now till April..give me a break.  He’s trying to drum up interest. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The graphic doesn't tell me much. Define "mild". Most winters now are AN anyways. I think more care about snow.

We're due for a cold winter....even in the context of CC (the 30 year moving averages offset some of the longer term difficulty in attaining normal temps). If we go by DJFM, the last one was 2017-2018 (though NNE was below normal for temps in 2018-2019....but not SNE which was average), and then you have to go back to 2014-2015 to get another.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're due for a cold winter....even in the context of CC (the 30 year moving averages offset some of the longer term difficulty in attaining normal temps). If we go by DJFM, the last one was 2017-2018 (though NNE was below normal for temps in 2018-2019....but not SNE which was average), and then you have to go back to 2014-2015 to get another.

Yeah definitely. But I mean an orange shade over us and the word "mild" lol. That's not telling me a whole lot anyways. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah definitely. But I mean an orange shade over us and the word "mild" lol. That's not telling me a whole lot anyways. 

Yes...agree. We've had plenty of fairly snowy winters with temps above normal. Most notable was probably 2012-2013....but even last year (at least over the interior of SNE) had pretty good snows even though temps came out to slightly above average. BOS would have too if they didn't get the epic shaft on the 2/1 storm.

 

But just a gut feeling that this year is gonna have some really cold airmasses in Canada that get us every now and then....I'm feeling a cold La Nina profile.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The graphic doesn't tell me much. Define "mild". Most winters now are AN anyways. I think more care about snow.

Yeah ... I'm not sure mild will work for snow enthusiasts. 

Firstly, the impetus for thinking that way - if I have this correct ... - is that at our latitude/geography and climate, mild in the past was good for 10:1 type snows and that mild is more doom and gloom down Jersey way and points south. 

I'm not sure that is the same any more with CC/migration N ... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54771-winter-2021-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6152314

..granted that is hypothesis and may not bear discrete analysis whatever ... but, really and truly  since ...I dunno 2006 .. '08, don't feel as good about marginal situations here like I used to back in the 1990s - that's for sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

I should caboose that ...   perhaps mild - relative to climate - works IMBY up in NNE still

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... I'm not sure mild will work for snow enthusiasts. 

Firstly, the impetus for thinking that way - if I have this correct ... - is that at our latitude/geography and climate, mild in the past was good for 10:1 type snows and that mild is more doom and gloom down Jersey way and points south. 

I'm not sure that is the same any more with CC/migration N ... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54771-winter-2021-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6152314

..granted that is hypothesis and may not bear discrete analysis whatever ... but, really and truly  since ...I dunno 2006 .. '08, don't feel as good about marginal situations here like I used to back in the 1990s - that's for sure.

See I was thinking maybe that is more indicative of the pattern vs CC. IOW, NOAA expects more SE ridging, storms cutting close by us. If that makes any sense. 

 

[PhineasC]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're due for a cold winter....even in the context of CC (the 30 year moving averages offset some of the longer term difficulty in attaining normal temps). If we go by DJFM, the last one was 2017-2018 (though NNE was below normal for temps in 2018-2019....but not SNE which was average), and then you have to go back to 2014-2015 to get another.

I wanna hit -30.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

See I was thinking maybe that is more indicative of the pattern vs CC. IOW, NOAA expects more SE ridging, storms cutting close by us. If that makes any sense. 

 

Well yeah that too - it only adds.    Maybe positive interfering - yuck. 

That said, I wonder if/when the gradient of winter kicks in, if we are just going to slip back into the same scenario where the patterns don't look like ENSO signals.  That's been pretty common in recent winters.

You know what, it's an impossible parsing ... Whether we have a ENSO -related SE ridging vs HC tendencies to keep southern heights from seasonal suppression ( as readily ...), the two skew which is which at any given time. 

Longer bloviation: My personal opinion is that in the absence of any ENSO signal, the gradient is going to be something like a fixed 6 to 10 dam more sloped between JB and the GOM than 20 years ago, anyway, because of CC/ heavy science in the matter that is no refereed and cannot be denied - sorry to heavy hand that but it seems people hesitate acceptance of HC. 

Not you per se, but folks need to realize that HC expansion is not a subtropical ridge in that sense.   One cannot identify it that way.  It's a planetary integral, expressed as a lateral/latitude increase in the Walker circulation eddy, while the circulation it's self is actually weakening.   The interface between the lower Ferrel Cell and the Hadley ( where the jet streams reside) is not a fixed location.. it meanders ...obviously... but that is the virtual boundary of the HC. The mean positions are north of 1950 by 4 to 9 ( as of 7 years ago ) latitude, N and S of the Eq.  That is all HC expansion means - *BUT* that small number means a velocity increase everywhere because of more gradient - that effects the R-wave distribution, and among other physical impacts  ... may in fact be f*ing up the correlation models of the ENSO ... Hence the vague patterning in recent winters.  

I mean it's like right there.

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I wanna hit -30.

You want to go outside and have your snot freeze.