Winter 2021-2022

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

Maybe the truth will be somewhere in the middle, the earlier runs were saying the polar vortex would be extremely weak and not recover at all, now they are saying that while it will be weak, it will start to recover and drastically increase in strength. A middle ground solution might still be good for us, something like the polar vortex recovering some, but moving to eastern Canada instead of the North Pole. 

By the end of the month it’ll say something else as well.  Don’t buy into anything hook, line and sinker….good or bad, especially at this juncture.  As Jerry said yesterday, a month from now will reveal much more insight as to where we “may be headed.”  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 10/18/2021 at 7:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

High Times?

I’m leaning towards an unfavorable pac so will need help from the atl again…which could or could not work. I’m also a firm believer in regression continuing, the 80s ain’t over yet.

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m leaning towards an unfavorable pac so will need help from the atl again…which could or could not work. I’m also a firm believer in regression continuing, the 80s ain’t over yet.

More for folks further south. I have had one average or above snowfall season since 2014-2015.

[George001]

My area has been getting skunked lately, since that awful super nino I’ve had 2 average winters (2016-2017, last year), 1 decent winter (2017-2018), and 3 garbage winters (2015-2016, 2018-2019, 2019-2020). As good as 2017-2018 there was only really 2 massive blizzards, last winter with 3-4+ blizzards was 2014-2015, every year I get my hopes up for some reason or another and then something goes very wrong and we get 70s in mid winter! Hopefully this year things will be different, with not even one 60 degree reading the during the Dec-Mar period. This is probably unrealistic especially early Dec and late Mar, but I’d like to see a winter with no 60+ readings late Dec to early Mar, those really warm days are a snowpack killer. 

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m leaning towards an unfavorable pac so will need help from the atl again…which could or could not work. I’m also a firm believer in regression continuing, the 80s ain’t over yet.

Yeah we lucked out with the above average snowfall winter last year otherwise would have been 3 below average winters in a row.

Still shocked to say I have experienced only 6 below average snowfall winters this century, so regression has to be in the cards. 

[SJonesWX]

JFC george. Enough with the blizzards. enough with the adjectives. not everything has to be severe or extreme.

[MJO812]

I just hope we don't waste the cold

https://nypost.com/2021/10/20/nyc-to-be-affected-by-la-higher-snowfall-than-expected-in-november/

[DavisStraight]

Looking forward to Rays winter outlook, I have a feeling he might say early winter moderating Jan into Feb.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

My area has been getting skunked lately, since that awful super nino I’ve had 2 average winters (2016-2017, last year), 1 decent winter (2017-2018), and 3 garbage winters (2015-2016, 2018-2019, 2019-2020). As good as 2017-2018 there was only really 2 massive blizzards, last winter with 3-4+ blizzards was 2014-2015, every year I get my hopes up for some reason or another and then something goes very wrong and we get 70s in mid winter! Hopefully this year things will be different, with not even one 60 degree reading the during the Dec-Mar period. This is probably unrealistic especially early Dec and late Mar, but I’d like to see a winter with no 60+ readings late Dec to early Mar, those really warm days are a snowpack killer. 

I wouldn't be worrying about snowpack in Foxboro. That is something that's only interesting during the epic winters. Let's start with having an average winter, snowfall wise. 

[WinterWolf]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I just hope we don't waste the cold

https://nypost.com/2021/10/20/nyc-to-be-affected-by-la-higher-snowfall-than-expected-in-november/

Just as NOAA says greater chance of above normal temps for Nov and Dec.  And also for Jan and Feb to.  But when was the last time they haven’t said that heading into winter?  I can’t remember them ever not  saying that?  
 

Everybody has their own ideas and takes on it as usual.  As others have said, looking forward to Rays thoughts as well. 
 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah we lucked out with the above average snowfall winter last year otherwise would have been 3 below average winters in a row.

Still shocked to say I have experienced only 6 below average snowfall winters this century, so regression has to be in the cards. 

AN temps with normal or AN snow seem to be more common lately too so if we took the past couple of winters and moved them back into the 80s, it would have resulted in less snow, imo (possibly). Increased water vapor is helping us balance out the temp trends a little. We need a favorable pac driven winter to roar back. 

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

My area has been getting skunked lately, since that awful super nino I’ve had 2 average winters (2016-2017, last year), 1 decent winter (2017-2018), and 3 garbage winters (2015-2016, 2018-2019, 2019-2020). As good as 2017-2018 there was only really 2 massive blizzards, last winter with 3-4+ blizzards was 2014-2015, every year I get my hopes up for some reason or another and then something goes very wrong and we get 70s in mid winter! Hopefully this year things will be different, with not even one 60 degree reading the during the Dec-Mar period. This is probably unrealistic especially early Dec and late Mar, but I’d like to see a winter with no 60+ readings late Dec to early Mar, those really warm days are a snowpack killer. 

You realize you aren't supposed to have above average snowfall winters all the time. Pretty sure 16-17 was AN there for snow. Are you 10 years old? Winters generally do NOT feature blizzards. 

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You realize you aren't supposed to have above average snowfall winters all the time. Pretty sure 16-17 was AN there for snow. Are you 10 years old? Winters generally do NOT feature blizzards. 

Ya he’s in somewhat of a fantasy land. Everything is extreme and/or a blizzard. Lmao.  

[Modfan2]

I’m just waiting for the damaging Ice Storm Talk!

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty decent displacement of the stratosphereic vortex looks progged....toward Siberia. That should be very good for enhancing cryospheric generation there.

 

As for pattern change in November? Not sure when that might happen, but the weeklies do have a noticeable change around the 2nd week of November.

[weathafella]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty decent displacement of the stratosphereic vortex looks progged....toward Siberia. That should be very good for enhancing cryospheric generation there.

 

As for pattern change in November? Not sure when that might happen, but the weeklies do have a noticeable change around the 2nd week of November.

We’re starting to see the hints on the long range ensembles.   The next week or 2 should bring better clarity.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We’re starting to see the hints on the long range ensembles.   The next week or 2 should bring better clarity.

White thanksgiving?

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

White thanksgiving?

Kevin dropping lime?

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[PhineasC]

These very steady-state temps and continuous precipitation chances are fine for here as long as my temps are running in the mid-20s for the most part. That's an ideal winter.

[CoastalWx]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

I feel more at ease when Judah and the CFS try to cancel winter. #heavyheavysnow

[Typhoon Tip]

I have a personal perspective on how climate change seems to be manifesting amid just our little nook of the world, that I suspect may rub some the wrong way - ..well, maybe GL/SE Canada and upper MA can be thrown into to the pot.  It's more to do with p-type tendencies.

It's a sentiment I recall writing about a few short years ago in a post event that featured extraordinary too-long-to-read rates ... (like 7" per hour!)  lol

We seem to "fail winter," more prodigiously on the under performance side of a curve IF/when we don't have antecedent EPO loading patterns REALLY enabling.  

...this matters.  It is more than symbolically as though we need the direct input of cold supply from deeper richer sourcing, because the home grown cold is tending to not be enought as much as previous climate generations.  I have at times referred to the, "flop direction" being liquid now, where marginal scenarios modeled verify decimals too warm more frequently, and/or ..they just don't have enough BL resistance typology leading our storm tracks to 'hold it in' as impenetrable as say ...1950 - 1998 ... (but the this end date is just slide-able by 10 years later... )

I almost see what is happening now/over the last 2 or so weeks, as a crude early sort of example how we need cold direct loading - just to verify cool incursions. We've bounced the PNA positive to negative, now climbing positive, while sustaining primarily -NAO phase states since late September, and just anecdotally .. I don't recall ever observing this many above normal diurnals within a realm governed by that kind of mass-field indication/telecon character... Oh I'm sure it has happened while you someone has now gon' fastidiously trying to say this happens all the time to bargain not having to face the implications of it ... lol. 

Just kidding, but seriously ...  2015 was direct cold loading from Kamchatka over the Alaskan arc down to Lake Erie... and all storms were talcum powder cobwebs.  It seems the gap is widening, where the mid ranged ratio events are getting fewer, in lieu of either overloaded cold or tending to cold liquid as the the base-line/so to be base-line

[weathafella]

Those talcum powder cobwebs lasted deep into the spring otg.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Those talcum powder cobwebs lasted deep into the spring otg.

With W/E over 6 inches with the majority of storms 10 11 to 1, couple of 15 to 1s and a couple less. Of course we had nightly 20 to 1s after the sub 510s ULLs passed over and under.  My max was 28 inch depth with 5.88 w/e on 3/2

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Looking forward to Rays winter outlook, I have a feeling he might say early winter moderating Jan into Feb.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting wrinkle this year. I feel good about a portion of the season that I feel like some may not...and I'm reasonably confident.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

That instantly changes my thinking now…to a big winter incoming. Getchya mittens ready.

[Mr. Kevin]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting wrinkle this year. I feel good about a portion of the season that I feel like some may not...and I'm reasonably confident.

When will you winter outlook be available?

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

That guy has turned into a complete clown! For him to even tweet something so dam dumb and infantile, is proof he’s a farce.  What a jamoke. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

When will you winter outlook be available?

Should be ready early Novie...thought I would get more done than I have in Africa....but I have an 8 hour layover in Dubai on the way back, which should be fruitful.