40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I only got 12 inches that winter lol I understand that, but you just missed much better snows....most of the other composites would have you focusing on spring training. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I understand that, but you just missed much better snows....most of the other composites would have you focusing on spring training. Yeah the gradient was a bit north of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Not.feeling.it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not.feeling.it. That’s good. Many times when things are looking good from this distance, they don’t pan out. We’ll have our Chances, we always do here in SNE. Normal snowfall is just fine for these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: That’s good. Many times when things are looking good from this distance, they don’t pan out. We’ll have our Chances, we always do here in SNE. Normal snowfall is just fine for these parts. Do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 9 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not.feeling.it. High Times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I don’t get it things look really good with the La Niña and expected weak polar vortex+ expected North Atlantic blocking. This winter should at least be better than last, hopefully a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, George001 said: I don’t get it things look really good with the La Niña and expected weak polar vortex+ expected North Atlantic blocking. This winter should at least be better than last, hopefully a lot better. I think La Niña can suck hard so using that alone is fallacious. Who says PV is expected weak and where’s the sign of North Atlantic blocking? It may be a decent winter but I’d be careful about expectations. Without nao La Niña winters tend to be sub par. We have exceptions but If your threshold is >2 blizzards per winter I think you’ll be disappointed. Let’s see where the pattern goes in a month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 hours ago, weathafella said: I think La Niña can suck hard so using that alone is fallacious. Who says PV is expected weak and where’s the sign of North Atlantic blocking? It may be a decent winter but I’d be careful about expectations. Without nao La Niña winters tend to be sub par. We have exceptions but If your threshold is >2 blizzards per winter I think you’ll be disappointed. Let’s see where the pattern goes in a month. Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one. Recency bias. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 See if the old farmers take is right, but hearing from quite a few people finding bees/hornets nests high off the ground which per folklore would point to a snowy weather winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one. He’s biased on the side of monster blizzards…take all with a grain of salt. Old Farmers Almanac, CFS-V2 and everything else at this stage I’d also take with a grain of salt. A month from now like Jerry said, let’s see what things look like? I’m not excited nor fearful ….things change quick in both directions many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one. The same conditions that have led to very warm Winters also lead to blizzards. Well above normal water temps, AN moisture in the air. All it takes is a favorable 1-2 week interval and boom. So I see plenty more blizzards in the future. Eventually the warming will be too much and we'll end up with 34-36F rainstorms but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The same conditions that have led to very warm Winters also lead to blizzards. Well above normal water temps, AN moisture in the air. All it takes is a favorable 1-2 week interval and boom. So I see plenty more blizzards in the future. Eventually the warming will be too much and we'll end up with 34-36F rainstorms but not yet. You need a pattern to support it though. Nina's generally are not conducive to blizzards, but that can change if we do have blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Winter starts next month ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The same conditions that have led to very warm Winters also lead to blizzards. Well above normal water temps, AN moisture in the air. All it takes is a favorable 1-2 week interval and boom. So I see plenty more blizzards in the future. Eventually the warming will be too much and we'll end up with 34-36F rainstorms but not yet. You’ll be dead before that ever happens, and so will I. I wouldn’t be too concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Hopefully the blocking stays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: See if the old farmers take is right, but hearing from quite a few people finding bees/hornets nests high off the ground which per folklore would point to a snowy weather winter Don't forgot tons of acorns, caterpillars and fat squirrels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Winter starts next month ? Good morning, Anthony. In the great NNE it’s a strong probability. In our area it may be a fantasy. As always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning, Anthony. In the great NNE it’s a strong probability. In our area it may be a fantasy. As always ….. Good winter can a wait until December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Modfan2 said: See if the old farmers take is right, but hearing from quite a few people finding bees/hornets nests high off the ground which per folklore would point to a snowy weather winter My Fort Kent experience says that's bogus. The nests I saw in summer 1982 were all 8-12" off the ground, and the following January had a thaw that left grass sticking up thru an inch of armorplate. Summer 1983 nests were low enough to be raided by skunks, and winter 83-84 I had to add an extension to my 61" snow stake. Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one. I've had only 6 events meeting blizzard criteria in the 36 years since moving from Fort Kent. Probably 10-12 in my 9.7 winters up there, half of which were cyclonic NW gales playing with new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 12 hours ago, weathafella said: I think La Niña can suck hard so using that alone is fallacious. Who says PV is expected weak and where’s the sign of North Atlantic blocking? It may be a decent winter but I’d be careful about expectations. Without nao La Niña winters tend to be sub par. We have exceptions but If your threshold is >2 blizzards per winter I think you’ll be disappointed. Let’s see where the pattern goes in a month. the models are saying the polar vortex is expected to be weak to start the year. Thats a great sign, and should lead to severe north atlantic blocking. I have read that a weak polar vortex has a strong correlation to blocking from 2 weeks out to like 8 weeks out, so that would result in an early window from early December to mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, tamarack said: My Fort Kent experience says that's bogus. The nests I saw in summer 1982 were all 8-12" off the ground, and the following January had a thaw that left grass sticking up thru an inch of armorplate. Summer 1983 nests were low enough to be raided by skunks, and winter 83-84 I had to add an extension to my 61" snow stake. Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one. I've had only 6 events meeting blizzard criteria in the 36 years since moving from Fort Kent. Probably 10-12 in my 9.7 winters up there, half of which were cyclonic NW gales playing with new snow. The question is what actually determines how high they build their nest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, George001 said: the models are saying the polar vortex is expected to be weak to start the year. Thats a great sign, and should lead to severe north atlantic blocking. I have read that a weak polar vortex has a strong correlation to blocking from 2 weeks out to like 8 weeks out, so that would result in an early window from early December to mid Jan. Which models? Some say an early SSW but that’s tenuous. And severe North Atlantic blocking may give you bouts of maritime puke while NYC southward cashes in. You want bouts of blocking that come and go for the best snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 49 minutes ago, weathafella said: Which models? Some say an early SSW but that’s tenuous. And severe North Atlantic blocking may give you bouts of maritime puke while NYC southward cashes in. You want bouts of blocking that come and go for the best snows. There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month: There are mixed signals by people. Some think it will be a cold November and some think it will be warm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, roardog said: The question is what actually determines how high they build their nest? I guess it depends on where the overwintered queens find suitable conditions, and they're not telling us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: There are mixed signals by people. Some think it will be a cold November and some think it will be warm . As is always the case. Gonna go out on a limb here and say, it’ll start out warmer in the beginning of November, and get cooler Towards the end of November. I think that’s in the cards. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month: Shit that’s not good. If the polar vortex recovers, it’s possible that the Boston area ends up with yet another garbage winter with less than 40 inches of snow the entire winter. That’s awful, hopefully the polar vortex doesn’t recover at all. edit- just watched the animation on that particular model and not only does the polar vortex drastically increase in strength, but it moves over the North Pole. If that happens 2011-2012 becomes a good analog, which means cancelling winter is in the cards. I’m not ready to give up yet, but seeing that it makes sense why many people here are being cautious about forecasting a big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Maybe the truth will be somewhere in the middle, the earlier runs were saying the polar vortex would be extremely weak and not recover at all, now they are saying that while it will be weak, it will start to recover and drastically increase in strength. A middle ground solution might still be good for us, something like the polar vortex recovering some, but moving to eastern Canada instead of the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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