Winter 2021-2022

[snowman19]

On 10/7/2021 at 10:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Euro trended from weak to moderate la nina, but still looks basin wide to me....not modoki.

It seems every model is trending stronger with the Niña. This is probably overdone, but NMME the has region 3.4 dropping down to -1.5C in Dec and Jan:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh... I feel pretty confident in my own hypothesis regarding the attenuation of ENSO forcing.

As the HC has expanded, and weakened that aspect of the total Walker circulation, that just physically impedes the ability of the former's ability to disperse into the R-wave layout of the lower Ferral/HC kiss latitudes     "as much as"    it used to prior to the HC morphology, which has becom more coherent over the last 20 years. ..on and so on.

Longer version: Nested in that statement is the concept/worth-while experimental posit that begins to explain why recent ENSO regimes have suffered comparatively weaker impacts around the known climate targets of the world over that same time span. Not saying zero, but less. 

Again, it doesn't mean Nina won't express in the flow, just that any -1.5 ( +1.5 ..etc), may not be as discernibly so, as it was in the prior climate generation. 

Which means if true ...one takes risks basing your forecast percentage/weights as much so as we used to, among a few implications...  I find it fascinating that as a seasonal forecasting science/"art,"  the general ambit is still figuring out how the ENSO this and that drives things, when here we are modulating the ability for it to even do so ..before said ambit had really figured it all out.    

So how this affects/effects the winter ... "up in the air" with all due puns intended... but, I would put money down that it would be less coherently La Nina "looking" than one may expect - if indeed they were raised prior to 2000 and still rely upon those older paradigms.   I think there will be times when the pattern looks more La Nina-like...  but, those will be happenstance and transient, while the pattern structure is en route toward some other circulation destination that looks nothing like La Nina at other times, given this range of anomaly observed and predicted. That happens in 1955 anyway, but even more so.  Unstable    ...   

Lots of gradient as a base-line canvas, with 12 to as many as 15 non-hydrostatic height contours between Brownsville Texas and James Bay common amid a rage of excessive velocities tending to absorb individual shortwaves.  This will effect storm morphology/type and frequency - unclear how or if that effects precipitation amounts or impact types.  

Polar indices play their usual role.  We could be bombed or boned this winter, depending on idiosyncrasies in timing and placement details of the polar mechanics.  And those have less predictive skill at seasonal lead constraints.  I do like the prospects given the cards showing on this Black Jack deal, though.  With -Solar + multi-decadal AO appearing to be rather robustly +correlative ( QBO and SSW doing their bits...) that should mean eventually the law of averages catches up with this f'n game and we finally get a -AO winter going.  Jesus Christ.   

 

[stadiumwave]

For everyone wanting to make a big deal about NPAC SST's in OCT like every year. Remember NPAC SST's are subject to large fluctuations in OCT/NOV. 

I give you SST's for October 7, 2013:

October 7, 2021...CURRENT:

 

Rosby wave activity in OCT/NOV leading to large fluctuations in NPAC SST's in short time periods, should prevent conclusions about winter using NPAC SST's at this point 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

wkevin.com is a real thing? lol

It's the place we put our snow totals https://wkevin.com/new_england_snow/

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

For everyone wanting to make a big deal about NPAC SST's in OCT like every year. Remember NPAC SST's are subject to large fluctuations in OCT/NOV. 

I give you SST's for October 7, 2013:

October 7, 2021...CURRENT:

 

Rosby wave activity in OCT/NOV leading to large fluctuations in NPAC SST's in short time periods, should prevent conclusions about winter using NPAC SST's at this point 

True Oct 10

[Sugarloaf1989]

I'm hoping this Winter isn't overly hard. I'm living alone in a 4 bedroom house and I'm handicapped. This house is about as unfriendly to a handicapped person as possible.  Multiple stairs and on a hill.

[weathafella]

On 10/7/2021 at 10:18 PM, It's Always Sunny said:

I’m in and out on the New England forum and have seen that reference before…what’s a rattah?

The reference started casually.   When I was in college (my graduation from undergraduate college was 1969), one of the guys in the dorm when referring to something distasteful said “This blows dead rats”.   I used the term for one of the low snow winters on these boards maybe 15-16 years ago.   Later I would refer to that type of winter as a ratter and an internet wx weenie meme was born.  I’m proud that people use it-most don’t realize it came from me but time to blow my own horn....

[It's Always Sunny]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The reference started casually.   When I was in college (my graduation from undergraduate college was 1969), one of the guys in the dorm when referring to something distasteful said “This blows dead rats”.   I used the term for one of the low snow winters on these boards maybe 15-16 years ago.   Later I would refer to that type of winter as a ratter and an internet wx weenie meme was born.  I’m proud that people use it-most don’t realize it came from me but time to blow my own horn....

Rightfully so. You need to copyrat I mean copyright that!

[George001]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It seems every model is trending stronger with the Niña. This is probably overdone, but NMME the has region 3.4 dropping down to -1.5C in Dec and Jan:

 

Love to see it, the strength of the La Niña is increasing. Not only that, but the SSTs are starting to trend favorable off the west coast. The pacific ocean as a whole is cooling off, while the ssts remain warmer around the North Pole, which should help weaken the polar vortex. This is a great sign for a severe New England winter. 2010-2011 redux.

[George001]

The panicking about the increase in strength of the La Niña on the models is becoming widespread. It is justified for mid Atlantic people but for us if anything with the sst profile and expected weak polar vortex it is a good thing.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I'm hoping this Winter isn't overly hard. I'm living alone in a 4 bedroom house and I'm handicapped. This house is about as unfriendly to a handicapped person as possible.  Multiple stairs and on a hill.

OT, but any way to seal off all but a ground-floor section that you would be using?  Save on heating and perhaps be less depressing than having all that open space around.  (I suspect you've already considered that strategy.)

[Sugarloaf1989]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

OT, but any way to seal off all but a ground-floor section that you would be using?  Save on heating and perhaps be less depressing than having all that open space around.  (I suspect you've already considered that strategy.)

Actually,  in this house it's the opposite.  Oil heat downstairs and electric baseboard upstairs.  I live upstairs and I can heat each room individually.  Going to keep the downstairs at 65F or so.

[weathafella]

56 minutes ago, George001 said:

The panicking about the increase in strength of the La Niña on the models is becoming widespread. It is justified for mid Atlantic people but for us if anything with the sst profile and expected weak polar vortex it is a good thing.

Are you referring to the stratosphere?   How would AN SST affect that?

[weathafella]

A dramatic difference between this year and 2010-11 in the graphic  Steve posted is the ssta off of Newfoundland.   I forget what that is called but the late Jack, a founder of SV correlated the winter with those anomalies in May.   In any case, it’s glaringly different and MAY be signaling a ratter-not sure....great snow winter Ninas vs this year are glaring in that area.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

The SSTA pattern in the North Atlantic that shows up in 1995 and 2010 is called the North Atlantic tripole. You have warm up near Greenland, cold pool off new foundland and then warm again to the south of there. 

Its much more distinct in 2010 than 1995 which is kind of cold up near Greenland but there’s a small area of warm water near davis strait. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The SSTA pattern in the North Atlantic that shows up in 1995 and 2010 is called the North Atlantic tripole. You have warm up near Greenland, cold pool off new foundland and then warm again to the south of there. 

Its much more distinct in 2010 than 1995 which is kind of cold up near Greenland but there’s a small area of warm water near davis strait. 

That’s what I was referring to!  Glaringly different this year it seems.  Thanks Will!

[George001]

58 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s what I was referring to!  Glaringly different this year it seems.  Thanks Will!

I was not aware of that, that is good to know. That is a valid concern, the water is just too warm off the Newfoundland coast. Hopefully the ssts there start to cool. However, the models are still saying the polar vortex will probably be weak, and the pacific ssts are still looking great so if we can get the polar vortex to cooperate this winter should be much better than last winter.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I was not aware of that, that is good to know. That is a valid concern, the water is just too warm off the Newfoundland coast. Hopefully the ssts there start to cool. However, the models are still saying the polar vortex will probably be weak, and the pacific ssts are still looking great so if we can get the polar vortex to cooperate this winter should be much better than last winter.

You do realize you had good snows where you were last year right?

[George001]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You do realize you had good snows where you were last year right?

Only 2 blizzards the whole year

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Only 2 blizzards the whole year

Beer?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

A dramatic difference between this year and 2010-11 in the graphic  Steve posted is the ssta off of Newfoundland.   I forget what that is called but the late Jack, a founder of SV correlated the winter with those anomalies in May.   In any case, it’s glaringly different and MAY be signaling a ratter-not sure....great snow winter Ninas vs this year are glaring in that area.

 

 

Chuck bases his NAO formula off of that and it's actually indicative of a weak neg NAO.

[Torch Tiger]

I remember in the 80's when getting 4-8" of afternoon snow , mixing and then rain, wiped basically clean by midnight, was a good hit for a season. 

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Beer?

Crack

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I mean the early returns definitely aren’t great… but a lot of time left obviously 

[It's Always Sunny]

15 hours ago, George001 said:

Love to see it, the strength of the La Niña is increasing. Not only that, but the SSTs are starting to trend favorable off the west coast. The pacific ocean as a whole is cooling off, while the ssts remain warmer around the North Pole, which should help weaken the polar vortex. This is a great sign for a severe New England winter. 2010-2011 redux.

I agree it's good to see La Nina strengthen per guidance but you also don't want too strong of a Nina either imho. In my head I've always told myself a weak Nina to weak Nino is ideal for good SNE snows. I found this graphic as a visual and it actually mirrors this line of thought, with moderate Nina also proving favorable. This is for Boston:

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I agree it's good to see La Nina strengthen per guidance but you also don't want too strong of a Nina either imho. In my head I've always told myself a weak Nina to weak Nino is ideal for good SNE snows. I found this graphic as a visual and it actually mirrors this line of thought, with moderate Nina also proving favorable. This is for Boston:

Yep. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean the early returns definitely aren’t great… but a lot of time left obviously 

A warm and wet summer with a strengthening nina as we head through fall doesn’t give me good vibes.

[Great Snow 1717]

As things stand right now it is well within the realm of possibility that "we" head into winter after a near record to record warm fall...

[CoastalWx]

I honestly don't see anything that scares me outside the seasonal voodoo-casts.  My gut says if we don't have a cooperative arctic, it may stink, but fortunately we have some things in our favor for the arctic to cooperate.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly don't see anything that scares me outside the seasonal voodoo-casts.  My gut says if we don't have a cooperative arctic, it may stink, but fortunately we have some things in our favor for the arctic to cooperate.

Yep. I posted in the October thread that very warm Sept/Octobers do not scare me at all (if anything they are a good sign for winter)...a torch November would spook me a little but even those aren’t a death knell. 

We start looking up toward AK once we get into mid-November. We basically just want to avoid a developing death vortex up there. One-eyed pigs are what scares us.