forkyfork Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 do you guys have any plans for when it's 60 degrees on christmas 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: do you guys have any plans for when it's 60 degrees on christmas I actually don't think that happens this season...at least not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, forkyfork said: do you guys have any plans for when it's 60 degrees on christmas Yeah. Open the windows. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: do you guys have any plans for when it's 60 76 degrees on christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 No ... but it sure is fun to drop a turd colored egg into a nest of counted chickens - lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 Just a little sneak preview....here is my preliminary, rough forecast composite for October....looks decent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 Different story in November 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Uh- oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Uh- oh Yea, there is some stuff I have my eye on, but its never wise to buy seasonal guidance 100%. I think I know why its doing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 There are some mixed signals in the tropics.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Different story in November Need that for Dec, otherwise it’s a waste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are some mixed signals in the tropics.... Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Uh- oh ...should not come to as a surprise to anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2021 Author Share Posted October 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ...should not come to as a surprise to anyone that seasonal guidance is unstable... Agreed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 17 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come I disagree. November 2020 500mb height anomalies showed no precursor of what would come in February. If anything, it shows a strong TPV. There's way more to it than just looking at 500mb height anomalies to determine how a seasonal forecast will play out. There are still indications that the PV will be weaker than normal. That hasn't changed despite ECMWF's SEAS-5 recent output. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 On 10/6/2021 at 10:31 PM, Mr. Kevin said: Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come Back in the day we called it reamed, steemed, and dry cleaned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I disagree. November 2020 500mb height anomalies showed no precursor of what would come in February. If anything, it shows a strong TPV. There's way more to it than just looking at 500mb height anomalies to determine how a seasonal forecast will play out. There are still indications that the PV will be weaker than normal. That hasn't changed despite ECMWF's SEAS-5 recent output. Yeah, I was going out to dinner in the North End outside in early November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 I’d rather not see a torch November because there is a significant correlation to November temps and winter, but it’s certainly not ironclad. There are plenty of exceptions. 2010-2011 is a great example. 2004-2005 is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 NMME Page...updated. Little change most notable is colder over western Canada. NMME Older NMME New CFS Older CFS New Canadian Older Canadian New NCAR Older NCAR New NASA Older NASA New Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2021 Author Share Posted October 7, 2021 Those are not good changes in the aggregate...looks more RNA and +EPO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2021 Author Share Posted October 7, 2021 I think October guidance trending warmer is in response to some changes in the tropics. I'll have plenty of time to dissect that from Africa over the next few weeks, and should issue pretty quickly after I return. I wouldn't get too worked up.....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Those are not good changes in the aggregate...looks more RNA and +EPO It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out. But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2021 Author Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 minute ago, stadiumwave said: It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out. But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern. Agree. I also think they are likely to err warm in 2m temp, as that dense cold will be in abundance to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. I also think they are likely to err warm in 2m temp, as that dense cold will be in abundance to the north. I’d like to see the H5 look on those. None of these are all that accurate from this time range but the 2m temp forecasts are even less accurate than the upper air stuff. Scooter and I still make fun of those seasonal models in autumn 2014 that (correctly) predicted a monster EPO ridge over AK but had like +2 temps from the northern plains to NE. How does the model even reconcile that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d like to see the H5 look on those. None of these are all that accurate from this time range but the 2m temp forecasts are even less accurate than the upper air stuff. Scooter and I still make fun of those seasonal models in autumn 2014 that (correctly) predicted a monster EPO ridge over AK but had like +2 temps from the northern plains to NE. How does the model even reconcile that? Are you thinking a snowy winter in the 6 state region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d like to see the H5 look on those. None of these are all that accurate from this time range but the 2m temp forecasts are even less accurate than the upper air stuff. Scooter and I still make fun of those seasonal models in autumn 2014 that (correctly) predicted a monster EPO ridge over AK but had like +2 temps from the northern plains to NE. How does the model even reconcile that? I mean imagine if you could have wagered on that lol. We'd retire just by guessing on the temps looking at H5 vs those 2M temps verbatim. If anybody has access to those H5 plots, I'd like to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you thinking a snowy winter in the 6 state region? I honestly haven’t been looking that closely. I will look closer usually later in the month, but I’ve always preached that getting seasonal forecasts right even 60% of the time is extremely difficult. We have a favorable ENSO state so that is going for us...we’re also kind of due for a good pacific. We’ve had kind of crappy PAC the past couple winters and it looks like a weakish QBO going into winter. That at least won’t hinder a poleward AK ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I honestly haven’t been looking that closely. I will look closer usually later in the month, but I’ve always preached that getting seasonal forecasts right even 60% of the time is extremely difficult. We have a favorable ENSO state so that is going for us...we’re also kind of due for a good pacific. We’ve had kind of crappy PAC the past couple winters and it looks like a weakish QBO going into winter. That at least won’t hinder a poleward AK ridge. Even if we can just have a snowy Dec into January. I think 92% of us would be happy and lose Feb /Morch . That’s kind of how I see this winter going. A good early start, holidays etc.. and then we slowly lose it later Jan and onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 I always enjoy the snow contest between Kevin and Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I always enjoy the snow contest between Kevin and Ray. Who has won more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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