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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are some mixed signals in the tropics....

Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come

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17 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come

I disagree. November 2020 500mb height anomalies showed no precursor of what would come in February. If anything, it shows a strong TPV. There's way more to it than just looking at 500mb height anomalies to determine how a seasonal forecast will play out. There are still indications that the PV will be weaker than normal. That hasn't changed despite ECMWF's SEAS-5 recent output.

Composite Plot

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On 10/6/2021 at 10:31 PM, Mr. Kevin said:

Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come

Back in the day we called it reamed, steemed, and dry cleaned....

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19 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I disagree. November 2020 500mb height anomalies showed no precursor of what would come in February. If anything, it shows a strong TPV. There's way more to it than just looking at 500mb height anomalies to determine how a seasonal forecast will play out. There are still indications that the PV will be weaker than normal. That hasn't changed despite ECMWF's SEAS-5 recent output.

Composite Plot

Yeah, I was going out to dinner in the North End outside in early November. :lol:  

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I’d rather not see a torch November because there is a significant correlation to November temps and winter, but it’s certainly not ironclad. There are plenty of exceptions. 2010-2011 is a great example. 2004-2005 is another. 

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those are not good changes in the aggregate...looks more RNA and +EPO

 

It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out.

But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern.

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1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

 

It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out.

But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern.

Agree.

I also think they are likely to err warm in 2m temp, as that dense cold will be in abundance to the north.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

I also think they are likely to err warm in 2m temp, as that dense cold will be in abundance to the north.

I’d like to see the H5 look on those. None of these are all that accurate from this time range but the 2m temp forecasts are even less accurate than the upper air stuff. 

Scooter and I still make fun of those seasonal models in autumn 2014 that (correctly) predicted a monster EPO ridge over AK but had like +2 temps from the northern plains to NE. :lol:

How does the model even reconcile that?  

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d like to see the H5 look on those. None of these are all that accurate from this time range but the 2m temp forecasts are even less accurate than the upper air stuff. 

Scooter and I still make fun of those seasonal models in autumn 2014 that (correctly) predicted a monster EPO ridge over AK but had like +2 temps from the northern plains to NE. :lol:

How does the model even reconcile that?  

Are you thinking a snowy winter in the 6 state region? 

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d like to see the H5 look on those. None of these are all that accurate from this time range but the 2m temp forecasts are even less accurate than the upper air stuff. 

Scooter and I still make fun of those seasonal models in autumn 2014 that (correctly) predicted a monster EPO ridge over AK but had like +2 temps from the northern plains to NE. :lol:

How does the model even reconcile that?  

I mean imagine if you could have wagered on that lol. We'd retire just by guessing on the temps looking at H5 vs those 2M temps verbatim.

 

If anybody has access to those H5 plots, I'd like to see that.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you thinking a snowy winter in the 6 state region? 

I honestly haven’t been looking that closely. I will look closer usually later in the month, but I’ve always preached that getting seasonal forecasts right even 60% of the time is extremely difficult. 

We have a favorable ENSO state so that is going for us...we’re also kind of due for a good pacific. We’ve had kind of crappy PAC the past couple winters and it looks like a weakish QBO going into winter. That at least won’t hinder a poleward AK ridge. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I honestly haven’t been looking that closely. I will look closer usually later in the month, but I’ve always preached that getting seasonal forecasts right even 60% of the time is extremely difficult. 

We have a favorable ENSO state so that is going for us...we’re also kind of due for a good pacific. We’ve had kind of crappy PAC the past couple winters and it looks like a weakish QBO going into winter. That at least won’t hinder a poleward AK ridge. 

Even if we can just have a snowy Dec into January. I think 92% of us would be happy and lose Feb /Morch . That’s kind of how I see this winter going. A good early start, holidays etc.. and then we slowly lose it later Jan and onward 

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