Winter 2021-2022

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Raindance said the EPO should not be as hostile as it was last season. He is a great forecaster, but this shit is hard. He also has some favorable analogs, too. Let's see what his NAO formula has...should be out soon. Chuck's is negative.

I never said it means it's wrong, but it's pretty tough to forecast the polar domain days in advance,  never mind months.

That Euro seasonal has a pretty sweet EPO. No one eye pig. Local Euro is not bad considering a degree warm in winter is NBD

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That Euro seasonal has a pretty sweet EPO. No one eye pig. Local Euro is not bad considering a degree warm in winter is NBD

That’s EP oh no.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Raindance said the EPO should not be as hostile as it was last season. He is a great forecaster, but this shit is hard. He also has some favorable analogs, too. Let's see what his NAO formula has...should be out soon. Chuck's is negative.

I never said it means it's wrong, but it's pretty tough to forecast the polar domain days in advance,  never mind months.

Agree wholeheartedly ... however, the EPO is a kind of a peculiar entity. Because t's anchored pretty hard into the WPO --> lag correlative ... additionally, is also sometimes anchored in a "tall" ...or very amplified PNA ( which overlaps the EPO domain space and gives it a "little" more mass -contributed dependability).. when these regions are active there is often enough a coupled phasing with EPO domain space, giving it some skill.  

The NAO does not have that coupled benefit. 

In short, where the EPO is difficult, the NAO index really can't be predicted. It can't.  I'm not going to get into labeling and theory over it, or we'll be at this until 11:14 pm this evening and I got the Red Sox loss ( sadly...) to the Yankees ... 

I'd almost say the AO is the easiest of the three ...than the EPO ...etc.. . in some sort of long-lead teleconnector-relative ranking.   Like , HC Expansion + La Nina ( which may be buried by the former - the verdict is still out...) + phase of PDO ... + solar and SSW ...  I don't speak for RD's methods but perhaps juggling these...

Thing is, I am not a big fan at all these days with analogs from prior to the hockey-stick CC era which began roughly the 1998 super nino.  Too many global systemic changes to count on those.  It may be why some Nina/Nina winters have been blowing up lately... etc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That Euro seasonal has a pretty sweet EPO. No one eye pig. Local Euro is not bad considering a degree warm in winter is NBD

I'm not worried. Don't get me wrong, it sucked seeing that, but it doesn't change my early view on where we are headed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s EP oh no.

?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

?

Because dateline ridge forces a huge trough out west. Verbatim anyways.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because dateline ridge forces a huge trough out west. Verbatim anyways.

EP?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EP?

Yeah go and look at that graphic. That ridge looks to force more of a -PNA ( which I would expect), but I’d say we are a little too close for comfort verbatim. AN heights are ok, but that is close to the Congo line of cutters.  Now if we had blocking, that likely would be a great thing with a SE ridge.  
 
I have no feelings either way right now. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Winter *CANCEL* with that H5 look.

With the polar vortex forecast to be extremely weak, that lack of North Atlantic blocking is probably bullshit

[George001]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

So George’s 200 inches for BOS is off the table?

Nope, that pattern would be great with North Atlantic blocking. In my opinion the lack of blocking is probably bullshit due to the weak polar vortex. The models are also likely overdoing the strength of the pacific jet because the strength of the La Niña is increasing more than expected. That should help cool the ocean off, preventing the pacific jet from strengthening and flooding the country with mild air. 200 inches is not the most likely scenario but it is very possible with the polar vortex expected to be one of the weakest on record.

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah go and look at that graphic. That ridge looks to force more of a -PNA ( which I would expect), but I’d say we are a little too close for comfort verbatim. AN heights are ok, but that is close to the Congo line of cutters.  Now if we had blocking, that likely would be a great thing with a SE ridge.  
 
I have no feelings either way right now. 

Get the AK ridge more poleward and it fixes a lot of issues. Esp up here. 

[SnoSki14]

That awful look could play out and AN snowfall could still happen.

You really just need a well timed blocking episode

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That awful look could play out and AN snowfall could still happen.

You really just need a well timed blocking episode

It only needs to shift a bit southeast for New England to look a lot better. You’d get something like a 2007-2008 pattern or maybe 2016-2017. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Get the AK ridge more poleward and it fixes a lot of issues. Esp up here. 

Yep. 

[CoastalWx]

People seem to be excited about a weak PV and an early SSW so there’s that anyways.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

People seem to be excited about a weak PV and an early SSW so there’s that anyways.

I mean, that really screwed up models last year too. PV was weak almost all winter and LR model guidance was atrocious. The SSW last winter was the Mortal Kombat fatality in February for some of the longer range stuff. 

It just shows how sensitive guidance can be to some of this stuff. 

[Torch Tiger]

On 10/4/2021 at 2:29 PM, George001 said:

In my opinion this year they are viable analogs. The models are forecasting an extremely weak polar vortex, and combined with the SST profile it is likely we see plenty of North Atlantic blocking in the first half of the season. The strength of the La Niña is also drastically increasing, with a likely 200+ ACE index hurricane season going on the books everything is lining up for an extremely snowy New England winter. Moderate-strong la ninas with severe North Atlantic blocking is a great pattern for snow in New England (Miller Bs). When you get an active hurricane season like that, all those storms will buckle the flow, causing it to slow down and give storms more room for to dig, go negatively tilted and undergo rapid cyclogenesis. Then you have sever North Atlantic blocking on top of that, increasing the ceiling even more. We are lined up to not only see a big 20+ inch Miller b blizzard NYC north, but we are lined up to see 3-4+ of them. I honestly think this winter has a very real shot to be better than 1995-1996. I’m starting to consider the possibility of doubling 1995-1996 in the Boston area if we get a few lucky breaks with the pattern that is shaping up, the ceiling is that high. I truly believe this upcoming winter is going to go down in the record books as a 1 in a million type weather pattern, one that even considered to be possible in New England.

only 2x 1995-1996?  How about 3x?

[raindancewx]

I actually don't talk about the EPO much because where I live it has literally has no predictive value for anything for temperatures. I do agree with the Typ guy though, you can generally figure out what the EPO will do if you get the WPO right. The WPO kind of bullies everything around more than having a direct impact on the US most of the time. 

I saw someone say I like 1967, 2001, 2011 - I do -but only for the La Nina development. Those years as a composite are not real close to what I expect for winter at all, especially for March. I have this for winter, but I am using different weightings for the individual months this year, since some of the years are much better for precipitation than temperatures nationally. I would argue knowing I have this for winter is almost useless since it varies so much month to month, even within the months.

The hindcasts for 1995-2020 on my NAO thing have the average DJF error at +/-0.36. I have a slide showing each of those 20+ hindcasts  in my winter forecast. Is that useful? Sort of - it can be - rarely misses by more than 0.60 in that time frame. So when it sees a big + or - signal, it's very unlikely to be wrong. But it's not some Word of God thing for the month to month readings.

For quick review, it's the NAO change in Apr to May blended with the NAO change Mar to Sept, anchored by similar prior ENSO winters. So last year I did 1961, 2003, 2007 as a blend. Had the -NAO in December, the +NAO in February, and the composite missed the -NAO in January, even though Jan 2004 was negative.

Anyway, this year, it's a blend of 1967, 1976, 2000, 2001. All four negative - pretty negative at that - for NAO in December. Jan/Feb both neutral for the NAO. March probably negative, but this method has no skill in March. (i.e. it's no better than a guess in March).

Long-term, if you look at February, the biggest/highest +NAO years are never after cold Nino 4 winters in the prior year. If you look back to February 2013, that's the last -NAO February, and it followed a 27.30 or something Nino 4 winter in 2011-12. That's the last cold Nino 4 winter before last year. There is some potential for -NAO conditions to last longer than last February or more intensely but briefly. I don't think the NAO index will matter much though in February if I'm doing my outlook right. But the long-term correlation for DJF Nino 4 and the following February NAO value is around 0.06 r-squared for 1950-2020, which isn't strong, but you have no real outliers.

The most fun month to me on a national scale is March if I did this right. That month looks cold, tornadic, and snowy to me.

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

That Euro seasonal has a pretty sweet EPO. No one eye pig. Local Euro is not bad considering a degree warm in winter is NBD

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, that really screwed up models last year too. PV was weak almost all winter and LR model guidance was atrocious. The SSW last winter was the Mortal Kombat fatality in February for some of the longer range stuff. 

It just shows how sensitive guidance can be to some of this stuff. 

I am getting 2017-2018 vibes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I actually don't talk about the EPO much because where I live it has literally has no predictive value for anything for temperatures. I do agree with the Typ guy though, you can generally figure out what the EPO will do if you get the WPO right. The WPO kind of bullies everything around more than having a direct impact on the US most of the time. 

I saw someone say I like 1967, 2001, 2011 - I do -but only for the La Nina development. Those years as a composite are not real close to what I expect for winter at all, especially for March. I have this for winter, but I am using different weightings for the individual months this year, since some of the years are much better for precipitation than temperatures nationally. I would argue knowing I have this for winter is almost useless since it varies so much month to month, even within the months.

The hindcasts for 1995-2020 on my NAO thing have the average DJF error at +/-0.36. I have a slide showing each of those 20+ hindcasts  in my winter forecast. Is that useful? Sort of - it can be - rarely misses by more than 0.60 in that time frame. So when it sees a big + or - signal, it's very unlikely to be wrong. But it's not some Word of God thing for the month to month readings.

For quick review, it's the NAO change in Apr to May blended with the NAO change Mar to Sept, anchored by similar prior ENSO winters. So last year I did 1961, 2003, 2007 as a blend. Had the -NAO in December, the +NAO in February, and the composite missed the -NAO in January, even though Jan 2004 was negative.

Anyway, this year, it's a blend of 1967, 1976, 2000, 2001. All four negative - pretty negative at that - for NAO in December. Jan/Feb both neutral for the NAO. March probably negative, but this method has no skill in March. (i.e. it's no better than a guess in March).

Long-term, if you look at February, the biggest/highest +NAO years are never after cold Nino 4 winters in the prior year. If you look back to February 2013, that's the last -NAO February, and it followed a 27.30 or something Nino 4 winter in 2011-12. That's the last cold Nino 4 winter before last year. There is some potential for -NAO conditions to last longer than last February or more intensely but briefly. I don't think the NAO index will matter much though in February if I'm doing my outlook right. But the long-term correlation for DJF Nino 4 and the following February NAO value is around 0.06 r-squared for 1950-2020, which isn't strong, but you have no real outliers.

The most fun month to me on a national scale is March if I did this right. That month looks cold, tornadic, and snowy to me.

Cosgrove mentioned 1976....funny.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah go and look at that graphic. That ridge looks to force more of a -PNA ( which I would expect), but I’d say we are a little too close for comfort verbatim. AN heights are ok, but that is close to the Congo line of cutters.  Now if we had blocking, that likely would be a great thing with a SE ridge.  
 
I have no feelings either way right now. 

All I was asking is what does EP stand for? East Pacific?

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I was asking is what does EP stand for? East Pacific?

Ohh...... That’s part of EPO haha. Maybe it should have been EPOhno?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Get the AK ridge more poleward and it fixes a lot of issues. Esp up here. 

Modest la nina intensity amid a negative QBO backdrop argues for that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I pretty much have my mind made up as to what my primary analog is going to be, but will see what happens over the course of the next few weeks. Part of me just wants to rattle things off early before I leave Friday night, but experience tells me to wait.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I pretty much have my mind made up as to what my primary analog is going to be, but will see what happens over the course of the next few weeks. Part of me just once to rattle things off early before I leave Friday night, but experience tells me to wait.

11-12?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

11-12?

That’s not even funny..

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s not even funny..

Never know.

[forkyfork]

what a thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

11-12?

Made my mind up after seeing the Euro update.