40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 50 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: An interesting blend: 1996-97, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2017-18...all 2nd year Nina's: OCTOBER That's very similar to what is forecasted by latest CANSIPS: That blend has a great first half of winter: DEC/JAN Then ridging takes over in FEB: FEB Pretty intriguing with the October if that forecast verifies. 96-97 was cool neutral FWIW.. How about 75-76, 89-90 and 2011-2012? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 13 hours ago, George001 said: In my opinion this year they are viable analogs. The models are forecasting an extremely weak polar vortex, and combined with the SST profile it is likely we see plenty of North Atlantic blocking in the first half of the season. The strength of the La Niña is also drastically increasing, with a likely 200+ ACE index hurricane season going on the books everything is lining up for an extremely snowy New England winter. Moderate-strong la ninas with severe North Atlantic blocking is a great pattern for snow in New England (Miller Bs). When you get an active hurricane season like that, all those storms will buckle the flow, causing it to slow down and give storms more room for to dig, go negatively tilted and undergo rapid cyclogenesis. Then you have sever North Atlantic blocking on top of that, increasing the ceiling even more. We are lined up to not only see a big 20+ inch Miller b blizzard NYC north, but we are lined up to see 3-4+ of them. I honestly think this winter has a very real shot to be better than 1995-1996. I’m starting to consider the possibility of doubling 1995-1996 in the Boston area if we get a few lucky breaks with the pattern that is shaping up, the ceiling is that high. I truly believe this upcoming winter is going to go down in the record books as a 1 in a million type weather pattern, one that even considered to be possible in New England. You have a million times better chance of Brady leading the Pats to the SB title this season than that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 14 hours ago, George001 said: In my opinion this year they are viable analogs. The models are forecasting an extremely weak polar vortex, and combined with the SST profile it is likely we see plenty of North Atlantic blocking in the first half of the season. The strength of the La Niña is also drastically increasing, with a likely 200+ ACE index hurricane season going on the books everything is lining up for an extremely snowy New England winter. Moderate-strong la ninas with severe North Atlantic blocking is a great pattern for snow in New England (Miller Bs). When you get an active hurricane season like that, all those storms will buckle the flow, causing it to slow down and give storms more room for to dig, go negatively tilted and undergo rapid cyclogenesis. Then you have sever North Atlantic blocking on top of that, increasing the ceiling even more. We are lined up to not only see a big 20+ inch Miller b blizzard NYC north, but we are lined up to see 3-4+ of them. I honestly think this winter has a very real shot to be better than 1995-1996. I’m starting to consider the possibility of doubling 1995-1996 in the Boston area if we get a few lucky breaks with the pattern that is shaping up, the ceiling is that high. I truly believe this upcoming winter is going to go down in the record books as a 1 in a million type weather pattern, one that even considered to be possible in New England. Lmfaooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Lmfaooo I've ordered a couple of these for the upcoming winter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 96-97 was cool neutral FWIW.. How about 75-76, 89-90 and 2011-2012? Throw those in & OCT is not as currently forecasted. My blend is not a forecast. I'm simply showing which analogs come up with the best OCT forecasted match. I then simply shared what that blend would look like for winter. Ironically the blend is all 2nd year -ENSO. It's interesting & is info for others to take into account when putting together a winter outlook. Just another slice of the pie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 September vs October output of EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 The H5 anomaly is pretty hideous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Kyushu FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The H5 anomaly is pretty hideous. I realize this gets annoying for some .. but, that's the HC expansion into the northern and southern latitudes of the planet - most likely. But here's the thing, if that anomaly was calculated against just since 2010 ... (not all the way back to 1993) I bet those warm nodes within those warm garlands would be less pronounced, ..the bands themselves would also shrink if not have more gaps. But going back to 1993 as the headers indicate, that predates the ballast of the observed/calculated expansion that has happened, with particularly more coherence since 2000 according to the lit and ambit of the science in the matter. Basically, Since the expansion is an intrinsic physical acceleration, it will "glow" because it is new in that sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The H5 anomaly is pretty hideous. That's an ugly change from what was released a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 I guess at least the heights near Greenland on average are AN. So perhaps periods of blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 It was hideous last year at this time, too...glad I ignored it. Maybe its right this year, but it has struggled with the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Euro Seasonal Update....ugly NEW DEC OLD DEC NEW JAN OLD JAN NEW FEB OLD FEB Certainly it's not gospel but I do not like the trend. Hopefully NOV improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Ha, Feb verbatim would be better than the old version, yet that is against Nina climo. Meh...I wouldn't worry too much in New England anyways. For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 What does la nina look like? Stronger and/or more west based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, Feb verbatim would be better than the old version, yet that is against Nina climo. Meh...I wouldn't worry too much in New England anyways. For now. I was just going to say...I like Feb better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 I'll sell that for now, though its certainly not comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 Bamwx feels as though Euro is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 7 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I've ordered a couple of these for the upcoming winter Already got the jump on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Winter *CANCEL* with that H5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Winter *CANCEL* with that H5 look. Had the same thing last year...then little by little, they all got a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Had the same thing last year...then little by little, they all got a clue. I don't worry about seasonal model output at this point in time, I'll start to look more seriously in November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Had the same thing last year...then little by little, they all got a clue. Raindancewx strongly had 11-12 and 01-02 as analogs. And just because it was wrong last time doesn't mean it'll be wrong again. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That's an ugly change from what was released a month ago. Basically a slighter cooler version of this month for the next 5 months. At least the heating bills will be low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Isn’t seasonally forecasting kind of a crapshoot at this juncture? It’s the first week of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Isn’t seasonally forecasting kind of a crapshoot at this juncture? It’s the first week of October This is the time of year we all get fired up or depressed over seasonal model outputs. It will all be forgotten in 6 weeks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Already got the jump on it. Smart man!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the time of year we all get fired up or depressed over seasonal model outputs. It will all be forgotten in 6 weeks. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Raindancewx strongly had 11-12 and 01-02 as analogs. And just because it was wrong last time doesn't mean it'll be wrong again. Raindance said the EPO should not be as hostile as it was last season. He is a great forecaster, but this shit is hard. He also has some favorable analogs, too. Let's see what his NAO formula has...should be out soon. Chuck's is negative. I never said it means it's wrong, but it's pretty tough to forecast the polar domain days in advance, never mind months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 So George’s 200 inches for BOS is off the table? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now