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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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50 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

An interesting blend:

1996-97, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2017-18...all 2nd year Nina's:

OCTOBER

Screenshot_20211001-221028_Chrome.thumb.jpg.0fbf42471c858899fd3575444d3ba5d9.jpg

 

That's very similar to what is forecasted by latest CANSIPS:

Screenshot_20211001-221426_Chrome.thumb.jpg.51c155fbc0422042e31be621e195822d.jpg

 

That blend has a great first half of winter:

DEC/JAN

Screenshot_20211001-220947_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6a2c3e5cf4dc5da4d5ecb8d4cf97d4dd.jpg

Screenshot_20211002-092006_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a3af808829130b0e84a8d01653d53716.jpg

 

 

Then ridging takes over in FEB:

FEB

Screenshot_20211001-221755_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b4338c1b0cecfe85f05be1fcb665f787.jpg

Screenshot_20211001-221717_Chrome.thumb.jpg.bd8f7a02f15434a0a19023a8053d93b9.jpg

 

Pretty intriguing with the October if that forecast verifies. 

96-97 was cool neutral FWIW..

How about 75-76, 89-90 and 2011-2012?

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13 hours ago, George001 said:

In my opinion this year they are viable analogs. The models are forecasting an extremely weak polar vortex, and combined with the SST profile it is likely we see plenty of North Atlantic blocking in the first half of the season. The strength of the La Niña is also drastically increasing, with a likely 200+ ACE index hurricane season going on the books everything is lining up for an extremely snowy New England winter. Moderate-strong la ninas with severe North Atlantic blocking is a great pattern for snow in New England (Miller Bs). When you get an active hurricane season like that, all those storms will buckle the flow, causing it to slow down and give storms more room for to dig, go negatively tilted and undergo rapid cyclogenesis. Then you have sever North Atlantic blocking on top of that, increasing the ceiling even more. We are lined up to not only see a big 20+ inch Miller b blizzard NYC north, but we are lined up to see 3-4+ of them. I honestly think this winter has a very real shot to be better than 1995-1996. I’m starting to consider the possibility of doubling 1995-1996 in the Boston area if we get a few lucky breaks with the pattern that is shaping up, the ceiling is that high. I truly believe this upcoming winter is going to go down in the record books as a 1 in a million type weather pattern, one that even considered to be possible in New England.

You have a million times better chance of Brady leading the Pats to the SB title this season than that happening.

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14 hours ago, George001 said:

In my opinion this year they are viable analogs. The models are forecasting an extremely weak polar vortex, and combined with the SST profile it is likely we see plenty of North Atlantic blocking in the first half of the season. The strength of the La Niña is also drastically increasing, with a likely 200+ ACE index hurricane season going on the books everything is lining up for an extremely snowy New England winter. Moderate-strong la ninas with severe North Atlantic blocking is a great pattern for snow in New England (Miller Bs). When you get an active hurricane season like that, all those storms will buckle the flow, causing it to slow down and give storms more room for to dig, go negatively tilted and undergo rapid cyclogenesis. Then you have sever North Atlantic blocking on top of that, increasing the ceiling even more. We are lined up to not only see a big 20+ inch Miller b blizzard NYC north, but we are lined up to see 3-4+ of them. I honestly think this winter has a very real shot to be better than 1995-1996. I’m starting to consider the possibility of doubling 1995-1996 in the Boston area if we get a few lucky breaks with the pattern that is shaping up, the ceiling is that high. I truly believe this upcoming winter is going to go down in the record books as a 1 in a million type weather pattern, one that even considered to be possible in New England.

Lmfaooo

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

96-97 was cool neutral FWIW..

How about 75-76, 89-90 and 2011-2012?

 

Throw those in & OCT is not as currently forecasted. My blend is not a forecast. I'm simply showing which analogs come up with the best OCT forecasted match. I then simply shared what that blend would look like for winter. Ironically the blend is all 2nd year -ENSO. 

It's interesting & is info for others to take into account when putting together a winter outlook. Just another slice of the pie. 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The H5 anomaly is pretty hideous.

 

 

EC_Oct2021_forecast.png

I realize this gets annoying for some .. but,  that's the HC expansion into the northern and southern latitudes of the planet - most likely. 

But here's the thing, if that anomaly was calculated against just since 2010 ... (not all the way back to 1993) I bet those warm nodes within those warm garlands would be less pronounced, ..the bands themselves would also shrink if not have more gaps.  But going back to 1993 as the headers indicate, that predates the ballast of the observed/calculated expansion that has happened, with particularly more coherence since 2000 according to the lit and ambit of the science in the matter.  Basically, Since the expansion is an intrinsic physical acceleration, it will "glow" because it is new in that sense.

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn’t seasonally forecasting kind of a crapshoot at this juncture? It’s the first week of October 

This is the time of year we all get fired up or depressed over seasonal model outputs. It will all be forgotten in 6 weeks. 

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54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Raindancewx strongly had 11-12 and 01-02 as analogs. 

And just because it was wrong last time doesn't mean it'll be wrong again.

Raindance said the EPO should not be as hostile as it was last season. He is a great forecaster, but this shit is hard. He also has some favorable analogs, too. Let's see what his NAO formula has...should be out soon. Chuck's is negative.

I never said it means it's wrong, but it's pretty tough to forecast the polar domain days in advance,  never mind months.

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