Winter 2021-2022

[StormchaserChuck!]

93-94 was pretty awesome too. A lot of people don't know thatit was a subsurface El Nino~. I always wanted a bigger ice storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

93-94 was pretty awesome too. A lot of people don't know thatit was a subsurface El Nino~. I always wanted a bigger ice storm. 

Yea, it just never officially registered, but it was close.

[snowman19]

@40/70 BenchmarkIf this really does become a true central Pacific La Niña for late fall and the winter, would it change your forecast? Or no because it’s weak? 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 BenchmarkIf this really does become a true central Pacific La Niña for late fall and the winter, would it change your forecast? Or no because it’s weak? 

 

It is and has been a central based event..region 1.2 has positive anomalies, however, the coolest anomalies should steer clear of region 4. 

I haven't issued any forecast and won't until early November.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@snowman19I think what you are pining for is a modoki, which is solidly region 4 focused, not a central based event....the latter, like last year, is what this event is. It's more variable with mixed features of modoki and west-based events.

[Snowcrazed71]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19I think what you are pining for is a modoki, which is solidly region 4 focused, not a central based event....the latter, like last year, is what this event is. It's more variable with mixed features of modoki and west-based events.

Right, but even having the same Central based event, there is bound to be some variability ( it will not be identical to last year). The hope is that some of the other side features that also play into what will happen will favor higher snowfall in a longer period of time. Time will tell though. I am starting to get primed up for whats to come though. Hoping we fall on the better side of the fence. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19I think what you are pining for is a modoki, which is solidly region 4 focused, not a central based event....the latter, like last year, is what this event is. It's more variable with mixed features of modoki and west-based events.

Region 4 had been strongly biased warm for over 10 years. Last year it finally broke the trend and ENSO 4 got cold for the first time in a very long time. Not sure what it does later on in this fall and the winter, but right now the cold anomalies aren’t focused there. I think they end up focusing in region 3.4 as we move into the winter and the models are all agreeing with that so far 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Region 4 had been strongly biased warm for over 10 years. Last year it finally broke the trend and ENSO 4 got cold for the first time in a very long time. Not sure what it does later on in this fall and the winter, but right now the cold anomalies aren’t focused there. I think they end up focusing in region 3.4 as we move into the winter and the models are all agreeing with that so far 

Region 4 has dropped pretty sharply to -0.6C , but the coldest anomalies are definitely not focused there 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Region 4 had been strongly biased warm for over 10 years. Last year it finally broke the trend and ENSO 4 got cold for the first time in a very long time. Not sure what it does later on in this fall and the winter, but right now the cold anomalies aren’t focused there. I think they end up focusing in region 3.4 as we move into the winter and the models are all agreeing with that so far 

Yea, as they did last year. Central based la nina...not modoki, which is the kiss of death. Not east based, either...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Right, but even having the same Central based event, there is bound to be some variability ( it will not be identical to last year). The hope is that some of the other side features that also play into what will happen will favor higher snowfall in a longer period of time. Time will tell though. I am starting to get primed up for whats to come though. Hoping we fall on the better side of the fence. 

My point isn't that it will be a carbon copy of last year...rather we should have some volatility...like last year.

[George001]

Woah! The latest update of the CFSv2 has the MEAN down to -1.8 and one member increases the strength of the La Niña to -3! The surface has cooled quite a bit over the past week, and is expected to continue cooling in the enso region into late fall/early winter. If this ends up being right, it would have major implications on the winter forecast.

[George001]

That is a strong central based La Niña, which combined with an extremely weak polar vortex would make for a very interesting winter in New England. The La Niña should result in a farther north and west storm track, likely many lows coming up through Chicago or even Wisconsin! I know that sounds bad but when you have lows coming up that far west while there is North Atlantic blocking in place, we would likely see the lows transfer to off the Jersey Shore or south of long island, and then come up the coast. Yep, that’s a Miller B pattern! DC and Philly aren’t going to like it very much, they would just get rain or only a couple inches of snow at most, while NYC and Boston get buried.
 

The severe blizzard last December had that exact track, and Wisconsin, NYC, and Boston all experienced blizzard conditions. I still remember before the storm there was a big argument over on the other forum that I’m banned on, with half the people  arguing that the storm would be a Miller A that would bury the mid Atlantic (gfs camp), and half arguing that the storm would be a Miller B that buried NYC north (Euro/Canadian/Navy camp). In the end, the la nina ended up winning that battle and the storm shifted like 500 miles north on the models just 2-3 days out! It was amazing, the forecast amounts went from 2-4, to 4-8, to 8-12, and then a day before the storm hit the models all converged on a Miller B and the TV Mets upped the forecast in my area to 12-18. I ended up getting 15, when just 3 days ago Philly/DC was expected to get hammered while we were on the northern fringe, expected to get at most 4 inches. Instead, they rained, we got a foot+, and the jackpot was actually north of us, Binghamton NY got 4 feet! If it weren’t for the La Niña, that storm likely would have hammered Philly and DC while we got nothing!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Woah! The latest update of the CFSv2 has the MEAN down to -1.8 and one member increases the strength of the La Niña to -3! The surface has cooled quite a bit over the past week, and is expected to continue cooling in the enso region into late fall/early winter. If this ends up being right, it would have major implications on the winter forecast.

Tossed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could def. deal with Cosgrove's analog composite lol.....1976, 1995, 2007 and 2020. Last year is the only one that wasn't outstanding here, but not concerned about LBSW in consecutive la ninas.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could def. deal with Cosgrove's analog composite lol.....1976, 1995, 2007 and 2020. Last year is the only one that wasn't outstanding here, but not concerned about LBSW in consecutive la ninas.

I don’t think it’s possible to have a La Niña without people using 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 as analogs. Just like it’s not possible to have an El Niño without 2002-2003, 1976-1977 and 2009-2010 getting used as analogs

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

Woah! The latest update of the CFSv2 has the MEAN down to -1.8 and one member increases the strength of the La Niña to -3! The surface has cooled quite a bit over the past week, and is expected to continue cooling in the enso region into late fall/early winter. If this ends up being right, it would have major implications on the winter forecast.

Extremely unlikely it goes strong

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Extremely unlikely it goes strong

If you look at that graphic, It’s nose diving it too quickly compared to how it’s been proceeding.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If you look at that graphic, It’s nose diving it too quickly compared to how it’s been proceeding.

The CFS loves doing that. It will eventually come back to reality 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think it’s possible to have a La Niña without people using 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 as analogs. Just like it’s not possible to have an El Niño without 2002-2003, 1976-1977 and 2009-2010 getting used as analogs

I don't think it's possible for you to ever favor a colder outcome. If you wanna question his methods, fine, but the guy isn't picking it analogs based upon waste coast snowfall....or by ENSO.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it's possible for you to ever favor a colder outcome. If you wanna question his methods, fine, but the guy isn't picking it analogs based upon waste coast snowfall....or by ENSO.

It wasn’t a shot on him, just saying that without fail when there is a Niña, either 95-96, or 10-11, or both always seem to become someone’s an analog/s

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It wasn’t a shot on him, just saying that without fail when there is a Niña, either 95-96, or 10-11, or both always seem to become someone’s an analog/s

I am willing to guess you have a long, and violent gender at 01-02 and 11-12 every cool ENSO

I have questions about his methodology, too...but unlikely a pro met residing in Texas with over 40 years of experience is favoring big NE snow years as analogs out of bias.

It's just a pet peeve of mine to ostracize and call bias bc you (collective not personal) do not like the composite outcome. 

Anyway, LC did very well last season FWIW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If you look at that graphic, It’s nose diving it too quickly compared to how it’s been proceeding.

Yea, maybe winter ends up mild, but the CFS will be wrong on ENSO....I can tell you that.

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am willing to guess you have a long, and violent gender at 01-02 and 11-12 every cool ENSO

I have questions about his methodology, too...but unlikely a pro met residing in Texas with over 40 years of experience is favoring big NE snow years as analogs out of bias.

It's just a pet peeve of mine to ostracize and  all bias bc you (collective not personal) do not like the composite outcome. 

Anyway, LC did very well last season FWIW.

Lol I honestly like extreme weather, cold, hot, wet, snowy, that aside, IMO 95-96, and 10-11 were great winters in large part because they were 1st year Niñas that came off Niños the previous winter. 95-96 also had the unusual strong +PDO/+PMM combo on the Pacific side which lead to the juiced STJ, along with the very strong -NAO/-AO blocking, 10-11 was actually a very solid Niña, +QBO with -PDO and it turned into a blockbuster winter due to the severe -NAM/-AO, -NAO, west-based blocking over the top

[MJO812]

[Great Snow 1717]

On 10/3/2021 at 6:06 AM, snowman19 said:

I don’t think it’s possible to have a La Niña without people using 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 as analogs. Just like it’s not possible to have an El Niño without 2002-2003, 1976-1977 and 2009-2010 getting used as analogs

Agree.  I wouldn't even consider using 76-77 because of climate change.  Even 95-96 is 25 years ago. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree.  I wouldn't even consider using 76-77 because of climate change.  Even 95-96 is 25 years ago. 

On a regional scale, this stuff doesn't matter that much. The temporal and spacial variability is going to mostly drown out a climate signal when we're talking monthly departures. You might adjust a forecast to hedge slightly warmer than if there was no underlying climate signal, but it will be dwarfed by the hemispheric pattern. That's why we were able to break the February 1934 monthly cold records at many sites in New England back in 2015 despite 8 decades of warming. Maybe instead of predicting a -3 month based on a 1970s analog, you forecast a -2 month or something like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On a regional scale, this stuff doesn't matter that much. The temporal and spacial variability is going to mostly drown out a climate signal when we're talking monthly departures. You might adjust a forecast to hedge slightly warmer than if there was no underlying climate signal, but it will be dwarfed by the hemispheric pattern. That's why we were able to break the February 1934 monthly cold records at many sites in New England back in 2015 despite 8 decades of warming. Maybe instead of predicting a -3 month based on a 1970s analog, you forecast a -2 month or something like that.

Yea, you just add a degree to the composite, but disregarding a potentially good analog due to GW is silly.

[George001]

On 10/3/2021 at 6:06 AM, snowman19 said:

I don’t think it’s possible to have a La Niña without people using 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 as analogs. Just like it’s not possible to have an El Niño without 2002-2003, 1976-1977 and 2009-2010 getting used as analogs

In my opinion this year they are viable analogs. The models are forecasting an extremely weak polar vortex, and combined with the SST profile it is likely we see plenty of North Atlantic blocking in the first half of the season. The strength of the La Niña is also drastically increasing, with a likely 200+ ACE index hurricane season going on the books everything is lining up for an extremely snowy New England winter. Moderate-strong la ninas with severe North Atlantic blocking is a great pattern for snow in New England (Miller Bs). When you get an active hurricane season like that, all those storms will buckle the flow, causing it to slow down and give storms more room for to dig, go negatively tilted and undergo rapid cyclogenesis. Then you have sever North Atlantic blocking on top of that, increasing the ceiling even more. We are lined up to not only see a big 20+ inch Miller b blizzard NYC north, but we are lined up to see 3-4+ of them. I honestly think this winter has a very real shot to be better than 1995-1996. I’m starting to consider the possibility of doubling 1995-1996 in the Boston area if we get a few lucky breaks with the pattern that is shaping up, the ceiling is that high. I truly believe this upcoming winter is going to go down in the record books as a 1 in a million type weather pattern, one that even considered to be possible in New England.

[raindancewx]

The obvious read on the cold season is it probably won't be as warm as last year nationally in Nov-Dec, or as cold as February in the Plains. Probably not as warm as March either. I actually still have January pretty warm though.

December & March are my guesses for most different year over year from Nov-Mar. I do have February much warmer, but still pretty cold.

Checked the other day - there were fluky deep South snow events in each of my analogs. Trying to figure out when the hell that's most likely to happen. My guess is early December or late January, but it's definitely interesting to see it. Can make the case for 1-2 incredible cold waves in winter in an otherwise warm pattern nationally if you look at years with similar Summers-Falls in 15-day increments.

[stadiumwave]

An interesting blend:

1996-97, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2017-18...all 2nd year Nina's:

OCTOBER

 

That's very similar to what is forecasted by latest CANSIPS:

 

That blend has a great first half of winter:

DEC/JAN

 

 

Then ridging takes over in FEB:

FEB

 

Pretty intriguing with the October if that forecast verifies.