Winter 2021-2022

[StormchaserChuck!]

I have to wonder about the curse of Boston 3" a couple Winter's ago, and that fields have flattened a little since then. I think there is a little I-95 perception/magnet. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

5 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

 

Yeah like Ray said that was driven mainly be by persistent -EPO. Didn’t need a -NAO that winter lol. Also before I moved here Dallas got an ice storm & snow out of it too.
 

 

So if the Super '15 El Nino started in the West, US (drought), I wonder if we are going to have west to east effects this round (round 2)

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I have to wonder about the curse of Boston 3" a couple Winter's ago, and that fields have flattened a little since then. I think there is a little I-95 perception/magnet. 

 

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

So if the Super '15 El Nino started in the West, US (drought), I wonder if we are going to have west to east effects this round (round 2)

What exactly are you trying to say.

[StormchaserChuck!]

We are going to have maybe the 1 or 2 highest global ACE ever. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some very, very interesting takes in here today. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 

What exactly are you trying to say.

We might get some localized El Nino conditions maybe. 

[WinterWolf]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

So if the Super '15 El Nino started in the West, US (drought), I wonder if we are going to have west to east effects this round (round 2)

It was 2016, not ‘15. 

[CoastalWx]

54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was 2016, not ‘15. 

It started in 2015. I think that’s what he meant. 

[CoastalWx]

6 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We are going to have maybe the 1 or 2 highest global ACE ever. 

ACE is low currently.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We might get some localized El Nino conditions maybe. 

I have heard some speculation that we may have an el nino like STJ.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

ACE is low currently.

Yeah it’s not earth shattering.

98 ACE as of yesterday in the Atlantic, or 110% of climo to date. 

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah it’s not earth shattering.

98 ACE as of yesterday in the Atlantic, or 110% of climo to date. 

Oh I meant northern hemisphere.

[StormchaserChuck!]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have heard some speculation that we may have an el nino like STJ.

It might precede +subsurface ENSO momentum ~March/April

[Typhoon Tip]

As the last two completed cycles of warm --> cool ENSO phases have globally demonstrated, spanning the last 10 .. 12 years ( with increasing coherency over time)  the N. hemispheric, wintertime circulations have been increasingly challenged to objectively fit into the climatology of ENSO events - the assuming pattern basis. 

Whether anyone wants to believe, admit, can understand, or some combination of those requiring they come up with some other plausible explanation that doesn't include Hadley Cell expansion, bears less relevancy for me.  In other words, forget HC for the moment; those seasons above are difficult results to explain.

That is paramount, and ...probably IS more the relevancy. It's emerging consistency, also looks reproducible and less like 'noise'. Logic: those "break-downs" in the ENSO, vs observed circulation structures should immediately connote the circulation is unable to respond to ENSO as readily in recent decades - regardless.  This needs to be factored. 

I understand, the alternative to the old standard institutional guides leaves only questions. And ... the elephant in the room, those that cannot adapt means, 'no confident insight.' 

Unfortunately, regardless of cause, or reluctance to capitulate to any offered reasons why ..something is still interfering.   That's just a reality that cannot really be controverted.

Personal winter hypothesis:  I lean toward whatever weak or moderate Nina transpires, it probably will more at transiently jive with patterns. Coincidentally, while the pattern at those times happens to be passing through the idealized state: *but* really en route to some other destination. 

Those destinations may tend to be none static, with unusually quick modulations between (-)(+) PNAP of various amplitude.

I do admit, I visualize an expanding/resistant HC, compressing south under the boreal winter heights, generates so much velocity saturation into the flow, this exceeds the stable wave-mechanics at R-wave scales, and sets the pattern into frequent motion.  ...- the entire hemisphere acts like the 'unmanned fire hose.'  I realize some think the HC is only observable in the autumn/linger... but that does not mean the HC is not there. The gradient surplus and the speed up of westerly ambient velocity IS the HC still lurking.. It becomes less a latitude distinction; the spatial layout is 'converted' into velocity increases. In that sense, it's there and effecting -

It is really as though the northern periphery of the HC termination into the westerlies begins to subsume the ENSO gradient, whereby because it is "buried" in that sense, this may explain the absence in observed ENSO forcing - I really believe in a nut shell, that is why these ENSO seasons are demonstrating lesser coherency on patterns.  

Now ... none of these above is a statement related to how much snow a region gets.  If anything, it is a statement that probably argues for less chance of any one temperature anomaly distribution to persist.  The winter in the whole nation may be +1 to +2  ( say...) but it may be -1 for a single month in the GL-NE region, with the other months being +2 with, both having at least one distinctive cold wave despite averaging that way... So the winter could be remembered as so-so ( for winter enthusiasts) ..not bad.. couple decent storms and a smattering of mixers.  But not a good grade because there were too many thaws.   That type of characterization would fit the wild unstable pattern look. 

Having said that, caveat emptor:       I suck at seasonal weather forecasting.    I am much better at specific era risk assessment.  I can visualize and see interesting things out there week 3, and have proven that ability many times in the last 15 years.  But, that hardly defines a season.  The best one can do is attempt clad and cogently derived reasoning, then ... wait for fractals to devise a destiny that evinces some attempt was also lurking to leave us without any explanation - haha lol

[StormchaserChuck!]

I go for a firehose/roaring Pacific Jet. 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have heard some speculation that we may have an el nino like STJ.

Did they give a reason as to why? We have gone into a -PMM since late last winter, that would seemingly support a weak/inactive subtropical jet

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Did they give a reason as to why? We have gone into a -PMM since late last winter, that would seemingly support a weak/inactive subtropical jet

I would expect a northern stream dominated season.

[George001]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have heard some speculation that we may have an el nino like STJ.

El Niño like STJ in a La Niña? That would be awesome, didnt both 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 have that? That is the area that ninos have an edge over ninas, in ninas the southern branch isn’t as active which lowers the ceiling for individual storms. The northern branch is more active through so in ninas we are less likely to get a 2 ft+ blizzard, but more 6-12 events than ninos. Correct me if I’m wrong but when you combine the STJ with a nina induced active northern branch, doesn't that drastically increase the ceiling and the frequency of storms? In both 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 we had 3+ severe blizzards vs only 1 last winter (in my area).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As the last two completed cycles of warm --> cool ENSO phases have globally demonstrated, spanning the last 10 .. 12 years ( with increasing coherency over time)  the N. hemispheric, wintertime circulations have been increasingly challenged to objectively fit into the climatology of ENSO events - the assuming pattern basis. 

Whether anyone wants to believe, admit, can understand, or some combination of those requiring they come up with some other plausible explanation that doesn't include Hadley Cell expansion, bears less relevancy for me.  In other words, forget HC for the moment; those seasons above are difficult results to explain.

That is paramount, and ...probably IS more the relevancy. It's emerging consistency, also looks reproducible and less like 'noise'. Logic: those "break-downs" in the ENSO, vs observed circulation structures should immediately connote the circulation is unable to respond to ENSO as readily in recent decades - regardless.  This needs to be factored. 

I understand, the alternative to the old standard institutional guides leaves only questions. And ... the elephant in the room, those that cannot adapt means, 'no confident insight.' 

Unfortunately, regardless of cause, or reluctance to capitulate to any offered reasons why ..something is still interfering.   That's just a reality that cannot really be controverted.

Personal winter hypothesis:  I lean toward whatever weak or moderate Nina transpires, it probably will more at transiently jive with patterns. Coincidentally, while the pattern at those times happens to be passing through the idealized state: *but* really en route to some other destination. 

Those destinations may tend to be none static, with unusually quick modulations between (-)(+) PNAP of various amplitude. I almost field like the HC with boreal winter heights compressing south, puts so much velocity saturation into the flow, this exceeds the stable wave-mechanics at R-wave scales, and sets the pattern into frequent motion.  ...-the entire hemisphere acts like the 'unmanned fire hose'  

It is really as though the northern periphery of the HC termination into the westerlies begins to subsume the ENSO gradient, whereby because it is "buried" in that sense, this may explain the absence in observed ENSO forcing - I really believe in a nut shell, that is why these ENSO seasons are demonstrating lesser coherency on patterns.  

Now ... none of these above is a statement related to how much snow a region gets.  If anything, it is a statement that probably argues for less chance of any one temperature anomaly distribution to persist.  The winter in the whole nation may be +1 to +2  ( say...) but it may be -1 for a single month in the GL-NE region, with the other months being +2 with one distinctive cold wave despite averaging that way... So the winter could be remembered as so-so ( for winter enthusiasts) ..not bad.. couple decent storms and a smattering of mixers.  But not a good grade because there were too many thaws.   That time of characterization would fit the wild unstable pattern look. 

Having said that, caveat emptor:       I suck at seasonal weather forecasting.    I am much better at specific era risk assessment.  I can visualize and see interesting thing on week 3 and have proven that ability many time in the last 15 years.  But, that hardly defines a season.  The best one can do is attempt clad and cogently derived reasoning, then ... wait for fractals to then devise a destiny that evinces some attempt leave us without any explanation - haha lol

I get the Hadley Cell expansion....its real..not debating it. But you only seem to mention the past three ENSO events that have not really acted as expected. The weak el nino event of 2014-2015 went about as expected..so didn't the 2017-2018 weak la nina. I don't think the 2016-2017 event was that out of the ordinary either. We still have modest ENSO events that do in fact behave in a traditional manner....

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

El Niño like STJ in a La Niña? That would be awesome, didnt both 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 have that? That is the area that ninos have an edge over ninas, in ninas the southern branch isn’t as active which lowers the ceiling for individual storms. The northern branch is more active through so in ninas we are less likely to get a 2 ft+ blizzard, but more 6-12 events than ninos. Correct me if I’m wrong but when you combine the STJ with a nina induced active northern branch, doesn't that drastically increase the ceiling and the frequency of storms? In both 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 we had 3+ severe blizzards vs only 1 last winter (in my area).

1995-1996 def. did....2010-2011 maybe a little bit, but it was def more N stream. It may have been a bit of a hybrid in the sense that there some southerly Miller B events.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get the Hadley Cell expansion....its real..not debating it. But you only seem to mention the past three ENSO events that have not really acted as expected. The week el nino event of 2014-2015 went about as expected..so didn't the 2017-2018 weak la nina. I don't think the 2016-2017 event was that out of the ordinary either. We still have modest ENSO events that do in fact behave in a traditional manner....

I did not want the reader to focus on the HC expansion shit...

I put that in there later on,  as a personal winter hypothesis, granted... But I spent much, much more energy trying to elucidate the simple premise that something has changed,

"that part cannot be controverted"   That's what bears the most relevancy.  ... To reiterate: forget the reason why.  Lol, I know it would be useful to know 'why' but it is what it is.

The ENSO's have demonstrated less apparently effective in modulation forcing  in the concerned times - the aspect of the ENSO not reflecting on the pattern is ubiquitous in climate ambit, by the way.  That begins to crack the foundation of their reliability/institutional method confidence.    Sorry, it does ...or should.  It's not absolute or total though.  There just needs to be a caveat emptor that the straight up ENSO method has proven not as reliable since circa 2001.   

Now, if we wanna get into sample size ..okay, it's only the last three.  Sure.  However, that is also occurring during a "hockey stick" time of CC as noted.   Usually, when something smells like a cigar its because someone is smoking one.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I did not want the reader to focus on the HC expansion shit...

I put that in there later on,  as a personal winter hypothesis, granted... But I spent much, much more energy trying to elucidate the simple premise that something has changed,

"that part cannot be controverted"   That's what bears the most relevancy.  ... To reiterate: forget the reason why.  Lol, I know it would be useful to know 'why' but it is what it is.

The ENSO's have demonstrated less apparently effective in modulation forcing  in the concerned times - the aspect of the ENSO not reflecting on the pattern is ubiquitous in climate ambit, by the way.  That begins to crack the foundation of their reliability/institutional method confidence.    Sorry, it does ...or should.  It's not absolute or total though.  There just needs to be a caveat emptor that the straight up ENSO method has proven not as reliable since circa 2001.   

Now, if we wanna get into sample size ..okay, it's only the last three.  Sure.  However, that is also occurring during a "hockey stick" time of CC as noted.   Usually, when something smells like a cigar its because someone is smoking one.

 

Fair enough.

I suspect this ENSO event evolves more traditionally...we shall see.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 def. did....2010-2011 maybe a little bit, but it was def more N stream. It may have been a bit of a hybrid in the sense that there some southerly Miller B events.

95-96 was strange because it was strong +PDO which is very odd with a healthy La Niña in place, even for a 1st year Niña in that case. It was also +PMM which probably lead to the juiced up STJ

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

95-96 was strange because it was strong +PDO which is very odd with a healthy La Niña in place, even for a 1st year Niña in that case. It was also +PMM which probably lead to the juiced up STJ

1995-1996 appeared to be a heavily -AO/-NAO influenced, which are source/forcing that are disconnected from the Pacific in the "direct" modulate sense. 

There is probably an indirectly coupling with the PNA to the NAO, as argued in negative correlation;  the wave dispersion transmitte down stream --> there's non-linear ( transitive ) wave breaks that occur that sends the NAO ridging into form. ...The general neg correlation used to be demonstrated in the CDC matrix/correlation table. Unfortunately, that source may not even exist anymore.  There was a budget crunch imposed by the last administration's sweeping coup d'état attempt by undermining institutions in general - they were definitely going to try and kill any source with the word Climate, while making America great again.

Anyway... the coupled modulation on whatever the Pacific sent, after the lag ...makes it difficult to know how much of the Pacific really contributed, when the -AO only partially shares domain space with the NAO and thus so is also in partially in disconnect.  But the AO appeared to send/load the Canadian shield with or without the EPO at times, and then the NAO helped bleed that south.   In fact, according to the monthly means ( which is an average, granted - ) the AO was more anomalously depressed than even the NAO, which is lauded as the primary factor in the Dec cold anomaly and thus attending snow surplus in latter November through mid January.   I think the AO is under evaluated back then. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

95-96 was strange because it was strong +PDO which is very odd with a healthy La Niña in place, even for a 1st year Niña in that case. It was also +PMM which probably lead to the juiced up STJ

Yea, I don't expect a repeat of that.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

1995-1996 appeared to be a heavily -AO/-NAO influenced, which are source/forcing that are disconnected from the Pacific in the "direct" modulate sense. 

There is probably an indirectly coupling with the PNA to the NAO, as argued in negative correlation;  the wave dispersion transmitte down stream --> there's non-linear ( transitive ) wave breaks that occur that sends the NAO ridging into form. ...The general neg correlation used to be demonstrated in the CDC matrix/correlation table. Unfortunately, that source may not even exist anymore.  There was a budget crunch imposed by the last administration's sweeping coup d'état attempt by undermining institutions in general - they were definitely going to try and kill any source with the word Climate, while making America great again.

Anyway... the coupled modulation on whatever the Pacific sent, after the lag ...makes it difficult to know how much of the Pacific really contributed, when the -AO only partially shares domain space with the NAO and thus so is also in partially in disconnect.  But the AO appeared to send/load the Canadian shield with or without the EPO at times, and then the NAO helped bleed that south.   In fact, according to the monthly means ( which is an average, granted - ) the AO was more anomalously depressed than even the NAO, which is lauded as the primary factor in the Dec cold anomaly and thus attending snow surplus in latter November through mid January.   I think the AO is under evaluated back then. 

Oh yea definitely a -AO/-NAO driven winter. The PAC side was also favorable that winter even with the Niña. It was just wall to wall cold and snowy from November right through the end of March. It was one of those winters that found a way to snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Oh yea definitely a -AO/-NAO driven winter. The PAC side was also favorable that winter even with the Niña. It was just wall to wall cold and snowy from November right through the end of March. It was one of those winters that found a way to snow

You must have been inpatient at a mental hospital that season

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You must have been inpatient at a mental hospital that season

I was 4 lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I was 4 lol

Temper tantrums while all of the other children laughed with glee and built snow forts?

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Oh yea definitely a -AO/-NAO driven winter. The PAC side was also favorable that winter even with the Niña. It was just wall to wall cold and snowy from November right through the end of March. It was one of those winters that found a way to snow

Well... save for 3 weeks of complete snow pack annihilation in the middle.  It really wasn't end-to-end.   But, that said ...it was majority not doubt.