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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not really IMO maybe @CoastalWx and @40/70 Benchmarkcan chime in, but the 1960’s-1970’s saw an extremely negative PDO cycle and some of the deepest -NAO/-AO periods on record 

Yeah the 60s and 70s had -PDOs and solid winters. I don’t really look at the index much to be honest. You’ll sometimes see the PDO mimic the ENSO regime. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PDO doesn't make la nina stronger, but it's not the best signal for winter in the east...means -PNA is more favored and makes polar fields more important.

It's not a deal breaker, though.

This is the study I am referring to...when they are both in phase the effect of La Nina is more robust. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep06651

Yeah I agree with -PDO correlating with an increased probability of -PNA but I'm talking more in regards to ENSO. Idk it's really not an important teleconnection when compared to everything else especially due to it's long periodicity. 

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2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

You'd want a +PNA and -NAO. +PNA would give you troughing over the Northeast.

How am I confused lol. That’s a good combo here. We’ve had snowy winters with that combo. It’s not a Miller B blockbuster look, but active with the -PNA and the blocking helps prevent lows shooting up our fanny’s.  Now if the NAO is positive, yeah.....not good usually.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How am I confused lol. That’s a good combo here. We’ve had snowy winters with that combo. It’s not a Miller B blockbuster look, but active with the -PNA and the blocking helps prevent lows shooting up our fanny’s.  Now if the NAO is positive, yeah.....not good usually.

I'm not doubting you because you are King of the Weenies but you generally get higher heights over the NE & somewhat of a block there with warmer temps.

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40 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

This is the study I am referring to...when they are both in phase the effect of La Nina is more robust. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep06651

Yeah I agree with -PDO correlating with an increased probability of -PNA but I'm talking more in regards to ENSO. Idk it's really not an important teleconnection when compared to everything else especially due to it's long periodicity. 

Stronger la nina correlates to a -PDO, not the other way around....huge Aleutian ridge forces a downstream western US trough.

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14 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I'm not doubting you because you are King of the Weenies but you generally get higher heights over the NE & somewhat of a block there with warmer temps.

:lol:.  We had that combo a lot in the 60s. Those were solid winters. I mean yeah + PNA and -NAO is good, but I’d take that combo of -PNA and -NAO

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40 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Looking at 500mb composites over the past 10 years we've done better with a +PNA/-NAO setup. A lot of it isn't textbook but there are a lot of years with near normal to below normal heights. There's obviously other factors/variables that matter but standalone that's what I'm finding at least.

How about 14-15. Raging +NAO but +PNA. 

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1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said:

 


Yeah like Ray said that was driven mainly be by persistent -EPO. Didn’t need a -NAO that winter lol. Also before I moved here Dallas got an ice storm & snow out of it too.

c05f272fb0c8144f36b7f73bcb01d31e.gif

 

Try like late 1/25/15 to about 3/15/15. You’ll see that ridge out west in an even better position. 

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Just now, tamarack said:

:lol:
Same site, I presume.

I'm not sure where the old observer was located, but this'll be a new site.  Old COOP person retired, and GYX reached out to me based on my CoCoRAHS data and location.  I'm within 2-3mi from the jetport, depending on where at the jetport you are, so a good enough proxy to call it official.

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4 minutes ago, tunafish said:

I'm not sure where the old observer was located, but this'll be a new site.  Old COOP person retired, and GYX reached out to me based on my CoCoRAHS data and location.  I'm within 2-3mi from the jetport, depending on where at the jetport you are, so a good enough proxy to call it official.

I'd thought that the co-op was at the old NWS office site at the Jetport.  Or are there 2 co-op sites at PWM?

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