Winter 2021-2022

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A question: If you said it took a leap during THAT super nino...does it stand to reason that it took another leap during the 2015-16 super niño? Because let me tell ya...feels like that year broke something, lol

It 'seemed' to?

Mind you, it's not etched in factual stone or anything.  It's just that back whence, we used to muse over the "southeast ridge" - it's really the origin-era for how that got into the common vernacular in describing notable features.  I.e., "NAO block,"  "EPO cold loading,"  etc.  It was bad - even when patterns from Siberia/Alaska/ ..western Canada and the U.S. Rockies were almost ideal - there was permanent 'bump' in the Tennessee Valley/ lower M/A and 580 heights over Atlanta Georgia.  The impetus here being that it is perhaps too difficult to separate SE ridging from HC do to lapped proximity.

It's around that time that I coined the expression, "the Miami rule."   Basically, non-hydrostatic heights need to be below 582 dm, and/or the balanced geostrophic wind velocities between that ~ demarcation, and say Atlanta Georgia, needs to be lower the 40 kts, prior to any S/W coming down from the western Prairies of Canada and/or ejected through the West.   If those assessment parameters are breached, we are gradually increasing negative interference - in that sense, shear increases.  I have seen "at a glance" perfect pattern looks, with a nice tall ridge over 110 or so W, and a deep trough nadir roughly situated Cleveland, but the wind over Atlanta was 100 kts before any S/W arrived.  What happens?  The already fast wind field "absorbs" the wind max of the S/W as it arrives.  It sort of just gets lost in the flow ... The system narrows impact, speeds up..and cyclones get pearled into multiple member vortices...and/or the system devolves into open wave WAA.  It's just too much gradient ...

The southeast ridge as recognizable interference aspect is likely always known, but that 2-3 years there during and post the '98 super nino, really elucidated.  A lot of the speed saturated hemispheres we've had in the last 20 years have really been compression. Whether that is SE ridge, or just something related to HC resistance ...it may also be difficult to parse out which is which. 

I didn't personally notice the super Nino from 5 years ago adding - or like "resetting" the base-line, quite in the same way ..no.  However, I have read papers where it was stated that the global impact/events, more typically known/thought to be caused by El Nino, where comparatively manageable relative to the ginormous ENSO.   More over, others have noted that the patterns in winter have not been very well correlating in general, during either phase of ENSO.  It may simple be that these ENSO regimes .. changes therein, or not modulating quite like they used to.  Noise?  Perhaps, perhaps not.

[Hazey]

Hope this guy doesn’t shawshank us.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[George001]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would not think it a very long guess that for most winter enthusiasts ...last year sucked ballz. 

It ranked very low on redemption scoring, outside of a narrow band through Central NE ..which will IMBY-lens arguments no doubt. 

Having said that ... I guess for pure objective reasoning, the bold means there was "at least" a chance?   

- no bueno.  The humanity of the enthusiast would rather roll up that reasoning and beat the high-roader into a coma.  Missing events by 500 mi is almost preferred over being C.H.ed ... It means one's region never was in the game. But a steady of diet near-misses is excruciating. 

No but 2020-2021 was a winter marred by velocity/shearing and negative interference tendencies the majority of time. That atones in most cases why those misses took place.  If the scaffold of the pattern is circumstantially doing that, than the pattern sucks, and the reality did to.  So I guess in this sense ... I would suggest using this objective reason to prove that subjectively, last winter sucked ballz, as being the fairest distinction.  Ha ha

yeah yeah, maybe it was just "bad luck" ...but I think the probability of a better vs worse result, relative to preference notwithstanding, is parlayed off of canvased winter pattern.  Personally, I would rather not stack the deck with bad luck.

 

 

If you get the same pattern but with a less expansive Hadley cell and a weaker pacific jet I do believe that it would deliver several blizzards to eastern mass. Not just one or two, but 4+. The polar vortex was just a little bit too far west. I could be wrong but it just feels like if we had last years pattern 10 years in a row 9/10 of them would have 60+ inches in the Boston area with all the North Atlantic blocking we got. I just wish the goddamn Hadley cell would go away, it’s making our winters awful.

[raindancewx]

Most of the research out there on the Hadley Cell changing implies the migration of the subtropical (sinking air) aspect to the flow toward the Poles in each Hemisphere is stronger in the Fall and Summer than the other seasons. I would say your view of the expansion is too fast. It's more like <0.5N/S per decade toward each Pole. I'd probably put it at 0.3  degrees per decade or so myself. Don't really get why you are so singularly focused on the winter. The reliability of the monsoon West Africa, Mexico, SE Asia, India, that kind of stuff is way more impacted than something like an American winter. It seems like something you just throw out there when you feel like it.

I can't find the paper my teacher wrote in 2010 or so, but the link has nearly identical findings to hers.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095927318301919

 

3. Seasonality of widening trends

Unlike other metrics, widening of the Hadley circulation demonstrates large seasonal variations [1]. Fig. 1 shows the poleward shifts of poleward edges of Hadley cells in both hemispheres, derived from seven reanalyses. In each hemisphere, widening trends in summer and autumn seasons are large and statistically significant in general, while trends in winter and spring seasons are much weaker and insignificant. The seasonality of widening trends implies that the associated radiative forcings either have seasonality or co-operate with the Hadley circulation only in particular seasons in causing widening trends. It was suggested that the widening of the SH Hadley cell is mainly due to the Antarctic Ozone Hole that has the largest radiative cooling effect in the lower stratosphere in austral summer [11]. Increasing black carbon and tropospheric ozone in the Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropics are considered the major forcing in causing widening of the Hadley circulation in boreal summer [12], which have the largest warming effect in the NH extratropics. Simulations showed that increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) force the largest widening of the NH cell in boreal autumn [4]. Because the radiative forcing of GHGs has no seasonality, the GHG forcing must be throughout some mechanisms in causing widening of the NH cell in boreal autumn. However, the associated mechanism is unknown.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Most of the research out there on the Hadley Cell changing implies the migration of the subtropical (sinking air) aspect to the flow toward the Poles in each Hemisphere is stronger in the Fall and Summer than the other seasons. I would say your view of the expansion is too fast. It's more like <0.5N/S per decade toward each Pole. I'd probably put it at 0.3  degrees per decade or so myself. Don't really get why you are so singularly focused on the winter. The reliability of the monsoon West Africa, Mexico, SE Asia, India, that kind of stuff is way more impacted than something like an American winter. It seems like something you just throw out there when you feel like it.

I can't find the paper my teacher wrote in 2010 or so, but the link has nearly identical findings to hers.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095927318301919

 

3. Seasonality of widening trends

Unlike other metrics, widening of the Hadley circulation demonstrates large seasonal variations [1]. Fig. 1 shows the poleward shifts of poleward edges of Hadley cells in both hemispheres, derived from seven reanalyses. In each hemisphere, widening trends in summer and autumn seasons are large and statistically significant in general, while trends in winter and spring seasons are much weaker and insignificant. The seasonality of widening trends implies that the associated radiative forcings either have seasonality or co-operate with the Hadley circulation only in particular seasons in causing widening trends. It was suggested that the widening of the SH Hadley cell is mainly due to the Antarctic Ozone Hole that has the largest radiative cooling effect in the lower stratosphere in austral summer [11]. Increasing black carbon and tropospheric ozone in the Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropics are considered the major forcing in causing widening of the Hadley circulation in boreal summer [12], which have the largest warming effect in the NH extratropics. Simulations showed that increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) force the largest widening of the NH cell in boreal autumn [4]. Because the radiative forcing of GHGs has no seasonality, the GHG forcing must be throughout some mechanisms in causing widening of the NH cell in boreal autumn. However, the associated mechanism is unknown.

I would agree.

[Great Snow 1717]

On 9/17/2021 at 7:35 PM, 512high said:

Who cares! If he gets one right I will be happy, I hoping and praying for a better winter, I just hope we can retain whatever snow we get and build from there and not be washed away.

Same here.  Hopefully it is a better winter!

[ORH_wxman]

18 hours ago, George001 said:

If you get the same pattern but with a less expansive Hadley cell and a weaker pacific jet I do believe that it would deliver several blizzards to eastern mass. Not just one or two, but 4+. The polar vortex was just a little bit too far west. I could be wrong but it just feels like if we had last years pattern 10 years in a row 9/10 of them would have 60+ inches in the Boston area with all the North Atlantic blocking we got. I just wish the goddamn Hadley cell would go away, it’s making our winters awful.

Our problem in January wasn't the hadley cell....we actually had a lack of gradient. We prob score a solid event or two if we had just a little more gradient. We all remember the close misses.

Look at the low heights over the southeast US in January.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Most of the research out there on the Hadley Cell changing implies the migration of the subtropical (sinking air) aspect to the flow toward the Poles in each Hemisphere is stronger in the Fall and Summer than the other seasons. I would say your view of the expansion is too fast. It's more like <0.5N/S per decade toward each Pole. I'd probably put it at 0.3  degrees per decade or so myself. Don't really get why you are so singularly focused on the winter. The reliability of the monsoon West Africa, Mexico, SE Asia, India, that kind of stuff is way more impacted than something like an American winter. It seems like something you just throw out there when you feel like it.

I can't find the paper my teacher wrote in 2010 or so, but the link has nearly identical findings to hers.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095927318301919

...

 

I'm assuming that bold statement is in deference to me?   Just from the last page or so of posts ... I think you mean me.  If so, no - I do not preferentially single out winter. 

What I have written at length about regards the autumn and springs more so than the winter, actually.  I subsequently advanced my own hypothesis: The culprit might be the HC stuff.   Just to be clear...  There's a lot of complexity there - it's hard to paraphrase it all.

Autumn: Seasonal lapsing and the plausible cause being connected to the warming at lower latitudes.  It's a bit counter intuitive, but a warmer lower latitude might bring earlier freeze snaps to the Lakes to New England. Fantastic short term recoveries, too.  When a cold incursion relaxes, the warmth is still biding time ... still available to the return flow sequencing.  I look back at the last 20 .. particularly 10 years, and indeed we've been situating snow events at unusual times relative to the previous climate inference, then encountering warm departures of almost equal magnitude.  

The gist of the way it works is, the the hemisphere is getting gradient rich earlier in the autumn, because cooling in the Ferrel regions is "out-pacing" the lagged HC in the south(s).  That increased gradient, speeds up the flow ... perhaps small, but very crucially.  That faster flow, by wave mechanical-physics, will tend to organize into Rossby waves ( conservation of inertia organizes waves when occurring in rotating medium ) - this lowers the entropy of summer, earlier. ....That all means we see more coherent +PNAP( -PNAP) with more mulit- non-hydrostatic height contours defining, and along with, we start seeing CAA earlier into mid latitudes. 

Spring:  ...again, just hypothesis, but this happens similarly. As the winter lower heights back off, and the mean polar jet begins to move N ...it is holding onto velocities longer, such that we may be witnessing a tendency to regress [temporarily] to +PNAP structures.  

Most of my suppositions about winters were attempts to offer insights, only.  Perhaps the reason ENSO influences have demonstrated less physically observable presence in the general circulation modes at hemispheric scales, with increasing distraction, spanning the last 20 years.  Maybe the HC is supplanting the ENSO signal. 

"It seems like something you just throw out there when you feel like it."  ...I admit I tend to be cavalier at times, with prose that is droll - an affectation that may be missed. I can see how this may be miss-construed.  I also think that the implications of even meeting the above conjecture 'half way' as being certainly possible, means that the the 'institutionally' accepted, seasonal ( lead) forecast methods, may not be as reliable, and there is a some preservation tactics in play to invalidate and protect those.  People don't like change. They will hesitate.  Most new ideas are seen as maverick and when they buck the zeitgeist, you get apprehension...I get it.  Normal. -

But rest assured, the HC, albeit entirely real,  my own point of view in how it effects matters:  I am not pinning that on any source - although...I may borrow from them to corroborate my thinking, I always site my sources.

I would also caution that the lateral size of the HC, in terms of where its northern amorphous boundary becomes the westerlies, may also be seasonally compressed at times, a circumstance that is would be more likely observable in winter.  It doesn't mean it isn't there, lurking and influencing. The times of excessive wind gradient and wind velocity is a mechanical conversion/conservation. That paper excerpt doesn't address that valid question. It's merely observational - I'll reread it but it didn't leap out at me.

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

I'm seeing some people mention the models have a SSW already for December. Pretty sure some of the years I have like 2001 have that. But I've been having trouble finding the list of years I maintain with those SSW events. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm seeing some people mention the models have a SSW already for December. Pretty sure some of the years I have like 2001 have that. But I've been having trouble finding the list of years I maintain with those SSW events. 

Dec 2001 had a SSW? Wow, that one was useless lol

Latter Dec/early Jan makes sense to me for this year

[raindancewx]

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/List-of-the-Major-SSW-Events-Recorded-Between-1958-and-2013-Peak-lunar-tidal-Peak-ZMZW_tbl1_324608809

This is the list I was thinking of. Obviously a few more since. I guess it's more early Jan 2002? March 2002 does get kind of nuts in line with some of the more famous splits.

[George001]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html

Severe North Atlantic blocking with a -.8 weak nina? If we get that we could see the biggest winter since 2014-2015. I hope we get a bunch of Miller B blizzards this year, the way things have been trending I am thinking the ceiling for this winter is extremely high and is increasing the closer to winter we get. Ceiling wise what do you think this upcoming winter can be? When you are talking about a more basin wide rather than west based high end weak nina with severe North Atlantic blocking, I’m thinking 1995-1996 is entering the discussion, possibly even better. Imagine if we get a 1995-1996 start to the season, then from late Jan to late Feb we a get 2014-2015 type pattern when the blocking starts to break down due to a timely polar vortex intrusion. That is the ceiling in my opinion. Due to the cooler waters in the eastern Enso region, the pacific jet shouldn’t be able to strengthen as much, and with the Nina being more basin wide rather than central based, I am starting to think we might not see a trough in the west at all. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Let’s begin with a cessation in the use of the word ‘blizzard’ …

 

 

jesus christ 

[PhineasC]

I am thinking I don't want blocking up here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Severe North Atlantic blocking with a -.8 weak nina? If we get that we could see the biggest winter since 2014-2015. I hope we get a bunch of Miller B blizzards this year, the way things have been trending I am thinking the ceiling for this winter is extremely high and is increasing the closer to winter we get. Ceiling wise what do you think this upcoming winter can be? When you are talking about a more basin wide rather than west based high end weak nina with severe North Atlantic blocking, I’m thinking 1995-1996 is entering the discussion, possibly even better. Imagine if we get a 1995-1996 start to the season, then from late Jan to late Feb we a get 2014-2015 type pattern when the blocking starts to break down due to a timely polar vortex intrusion. That is the ceiling in my opinion. Due to the cooler waters in the eastern Enso region, the pacific jet shouldn’t be able to strengthen as much, and with the Nina being more basin wide rather than central based, I am starting to think we might not see a trough in the west at all. 

Not what I said.

All I implied was at least one month averaging a neg NAO/AO is likely.

[Typhoon Tip]

Quick cautionary for using the QBO: 

The last 5 .. 7 years have seen some remarkable occurrences wrt the QBO. There were anomalies never before witnessed along recorded/observational history.  The wind direction/momentum in the respective sigma levels uncoupled, with differential levels demonstrating wind reversal, unexpectedly mid phase.  

Here we ago again with another institutionally reliant field teleconnector falling out of whack, for one.  But, it may be worth it to note, as it may (may not) mean anything - lol.   This from "Science Daily" may serve as an entry/primer on the occurrence and some science after the fact:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160908151118.htm

This article focuses on the 2015/2016 winter event ( also echoed in the AMS journal entry, "Dynamics of the Disrupted 2015/16 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation" ), but I'm "pretty sure" there was another either last year or the year before?  either way -

Personal thought: These source's cause identity seems to be related to R-wave dispersion flowing backward into the tropical latitudes...imposing that momentum with enough inertia to cause the transient break downs.  I almost think of it metaphorically as a wave strong enough to  bounces off the far end of a pool with enough momentum to come back...  It may not mean much more than a very powerful polar jet - which by theory and convention, "power" in that context means it is transporting huge wave kinematics -  so perhaps that that fits so to speak.

But, it may mean more than that, too. If there are competing forces emerging that are capable of disrupting the QBO periodicity, which by function and form is a global phenomenon, it seems intuitive to ponder whether there are other ( perhaps "emergent" newer climate change motivators ) that should be considered. What in the f those are... we call upon Science Fiction writers.   I of course have ideas - LOL

[raindancewx]

I'm not a fan of the QBO as a big factor.

But the 2nd year La Nina/near La Nina winters with a -QBO since 1950 are:

1950-51, 1956-57, 1967-68, 1974-75, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2017-18.

Some borderline cases too - 1984-85 (barely -QBO overall), 1960-61, 1962-63 (not really La Ninas or following La Ninas, just a second year cold ENSO) on either indicator. I doubled the years with the most recency and lower solar activity to tease out the signal -

[CoastalWx]

On 9/21/2021 at 3:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html

 Note that euro forecast. It’s already too warm almost immediately. I think a low end moderate is possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Note that euro forecast. It’s already too warm almost immediately. I think a low end moderate is possible.

I agree....but the Euro is like .53, which is very weak...but I still think mod is a stretch. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm not a fan of the QBO as a big factor.

But the 2nd year La Nina/near La Nina winters with a -QBO since 1950 are:

1950-51, 1956-57, 1967-68, 1974-75, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2017-18.

Some borderline cases too - 1984-85 (barely -QBO overall), 1960-61, 1962-63 (not really La Ninas or following La Ninas, just a second year cold ENSO) on either indicator. I doubled the years with the most recency and lower solar activity to tease out the signal -

It's not a huge factor...just another element.

However, I will add that I do not believe the fact that 22/35 of your listed major PV disruptions occured during easterly QBO seasons is a coincidence.

[snowman19]

On 9/21/2021 at 3:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html

Good write up. About the Aleutian ridge….HM wrote an article back in 2012 showing that La Niña/-QBO results in a flat Aleutian ridge while La Niña/+QBO results in a poleward Aleutian ridge. 

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm not a fan of the QBO as a big factor.

But the 2nd year La Nina/near La Nina winters with a -QBO since 1950 are:

1950-51, 1956-57, 1967-68, 1974-75, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2017-18.

Some borderline cases too - 1984-85 (barely -QBO overall), 1960-61, 1962-63 (not really La Ninas or following La Ninas, just a second year cold ENSO) on either indicator. I doubled the years with the most recency and lower solar activity to tease out the signal -

Are there any analogs for 2nd year weak La Niña (Modoki), -QBO, rising solar, -PDO? 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Are there any analogs for 2nd year weak La Niña (Modoki), -QBO, rising solar, -PDO? 

I’m not sure if this niña is modoki from what I’ve seen.

[CoastalWx]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree....but the Euro is like .53, which is very weak...but I still think mod is a stretch. 

Yeah. I say possible to open the chance up, but I think high end weak seems more of a Higher chance. I just wouldn’t be shocked if it were low end moderate, but I don’t think a few tenths of a degree C matter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. I say possible to open the chance up, but I think high end weak seems more of a Higher chance. I just wouldn’t be shocked if it were low end moderate, but I don’t think a few tenths of a degree C matter.

Agreed.

I think odds of a weak are about 75%.....20% moderate, 5% neutral if I had to affix percentages.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

I’m not sure if this niña is modoki from what I’ve seen.

Its central based, but I don't think structure is as important in a modest event....marginal ENSO events are a lot more variable due to less ENSO forcing...especially lately with the HC expansion, etc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Good write up. About the Aleutian ridge….HM wrote an article back in 2012 showing that La Niña/-QBO results in a flat Aleutian ridge while La Niña/+QBO results in a poleward Aleutian ridge. 

Eh....I'd be careful with absolute statements like that. Especially given how weak this event is going to be. I think that wold have more relevance with a stronger la nina. There is a reason that I binned the analogs by QBO phase and la nina intensity in that blog. I will touch more upon structure today, but again...I don't think that is a huge deal this season.

[George001]

The cfsv2 is not backing down at all, and is only increasing the strength of the La Niña. The MEAN is a 2010-2011 strength La Nina in the latest update (-1.6 to -1.7 mean), with members ranging from -1.2 to -2.6 (this is the biggest outlier, but there are still a few members below -2). Is this overdone? When looking at the other guidance probably, but with the recent cooling of the subsurface combined with not one member of the cfsv2 having a la nina weaker than low end moderate, I do think the potential for a stronger la nina can’t be ruled out just yet. 

[George001]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 Note that euro forecast. It’s already too warm almost immediately. I think a low end moderate is possible.

The strength of the La Niña in the most recent update has increased on every model I looked at, even the ones that were leaning towards a weaker one previously.