Winter 2021-2022

[40/70 Benchmark]

Blocking+Miller B=Take your steady dose of storms tracking just se of you during max deepening, and like it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think he was hesitant on directly forecasting it, but just mentioned that some signals were there and the climate models (like euro seasonal) were showing it. Lets hope for some of that to come true. 

 

I won't hesitate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

La Nina with blocking is an extremely strong snow signal in New England.

Almost all of our crappy La Ninas had a big +AO/NAO. Just go right down the list:

1. 2011-2012

2. 1999-2000

3. 1998-1999

4. 1988-1989

5. 1984-1985

6. 1973-1974

 

Now there were years like 2005-2006 which had some blocking but were pretty crappy in NNE....though SNE was closer to average in snowfall (with a narrow area above avg in CT). But overall, arctic blocking + La Nina is a very good snow signal.

1984-1985 and 1954-1955 are the only other two la nina/neg NAO seasons that I can see that were not above avg snowfall for us.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I won't hesitate.

LOL...just saying I'm not sure that is a lock. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1984-1985 and 1954-1955 are the only other two la nina/neg NAO seasons that I can see that were not above avg snowfall for us.

Yeah and '84-'85 was weird in that is was basically just one nuclear blocking month (Jan 85...maybe leaking into early Feb) surrounded by garbage....and we happened to whiff on most systems in Jan '85....epic arctic cold and southern snow events that month.

 

1954-1955 was just weird....the pattern didn't look bad but somehow we got basically no snow. Ir was pretty dry too in SNE.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

How many decades do you think we have to get decent snows. What's our tipping point?

From looking at major I-95 cities RIC north, the absolute monsters may disappear more slowly than big storm frequency or average snowfall.  Below are the current numbers I have for 10 sites RIC to HUL, biggest on record with dates, and 15th biggest.  The first column values are remarkably similar once north of Potomac (RIC shown for contrast) but significantly different for #15s.

Site   BIggest     Date   Fifteenth
RIC     21.6"    Jan. 1940    10.9"
DC     28.0"    Jan. 1922    12.4"   "Knickerbocker storm"
BWI    29.2"    Jan. 2016    14.1"
PHL    30.7"   Jan. 1996    14.3"
NYC    27.5"   Jan. 2016    17.5"
PVD    28.6"   Feb. 1978    14.7"
BOS    27.6    Feb. 2003    18.2"
PWM  31.9"   Feb. 2013    16.7"
BGR   30.9"   Feb. 1969    18.1"
HUL   29.2"   Mar. 1981     16.6"
I'm not sure if the progressively later-in-season timing as one goes north is meaningful.  2nd biggest snowfalls are all over the place:  DC thru NYC all Feb, PVD and PWM Jan, and BGR in Dec.
 

[uncle W]

last year had some good blocking and NYC had above average snowfall and a major storm...temps were not that cold but cold enough...

I made this chart for NYC la nina winters and weak neg winters and the average arctic oscillation for Dec-Mar...

...black is near average...red above average temps...below average snowfall...blue is below average temps and above average snowfall...neg ao in blue...pos ao in red...30 day cold is the coldest 30 straight days...

winters............DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

2020-21.............-1.0.............-0.825.........36.1...14...........30.4.........38.6"..........10.5" 17.4" 4.5" 4.4"...

2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"..........4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

 

.................................................................................................................................................................

weak la nina or weak negative years...

1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0"

1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6"

2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"........12.0"....6.0"....5.7"

2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"........26.9"....5.8"

1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7".....5.2"

2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3".....4.5"....4.3"

2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.2"

1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9"

1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3".....4.6"

1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9".....5.1"....4.6"

1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8"

1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5"

2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0"

1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2"

1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"........12.5".....9.8"...7.1"

1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5"....4.5"

2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"........11.4"....4.7"

2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2"..........9.4"....7.6"....5.1"

[Typhoon Tip]

Blocking is mainly important in the antecedent intervals for cold-loading the pattern. Otherwise you don’t want them actively exerting nearby when the west times injecting S/Ws or that exertion typical means suppression/..negative interference
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and '84-'85 was weird in that is was basically just one nuclear blocking month (Jan 85...maybe leaking into early Feb) surrounded by garbage....and we happened to whiff on most systems in Jan '85....epic arctic cold and southern snow events that month.

 

1954-1955 was just weird....the pattern didn't look bad but somehow we got basically no snow. Ir was pretty dry too in SNE.

Last year, too, at least from my area points north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL...just saying I'm not sure that is a lock. 

I would be pretty surprised if at least the month of December  doesn't register neg NAO....does it stick all year?

Doubtful.

[George001]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be pretty surprised if at least the month of December  doesn't register neg NAO....does it stick all year?

Doubtful.

I think it is very possible we see North Atlantic blocking the entire winter, and even if we don’t there is a good chance we get severe polar vortex intrusions to offset that, as the polar vortex is looking weak on the models.

[weathafella]

20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

La Nina with blocking is an extremely strong snow signal in New England.

Almost all of our crappy La Ninas had a big +AO/NAO. Just go right down the list:

1. 2011-2012

2. 1999-2000

3. 1998-1999

4. 1988-1989

5. 1984-1985

6. 1973-1974

 

Now there were years like 2005-2006 which had some blocking but were pretty crappy in NNE....though SNE was closer to average in snowfall (with a narrow area above avg in CT). But overall, arctic blocking + La Nina is a very good snow signal.

I don’t think 1998-99 should be lumped into the big ratters.   It was sub par for sure but it had some good moments.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think 1998-99 should be lumped into the big ratters.   It was sub par for sure but it had some good moments.

It was ok for SE MA, but pretty cruddy elsewhere. 2/25/99 really helped the anomalies in SE MA.

I'd agree it wasn't as terrible as years like '88-'89 or '11-'12....those were near all time ratters.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was ok for SE MA, but pretty cruddy elsewhere. 2/25/99 really helped the anomalies in SE MA.

I'd agree it wasn't as terrible as years like '88-'89 or '11-'12....those were near all time ratters.

This may sound weird...but it is idiosyncratic to just my particular brand of nerdiness... heh -

Of those two, the bold is the worse of them. 

11-12 was so bad, that it became fascinating and earned points back in the awe-factor.  I mean, sometimes shit gets so shitty you just have to step back and objectively marvel at how deep in it Nature is capable of jamming your head.   Really a fantastic achievement in the scalar sense of it.

Also, that Halloween in 2011 was something like a 500 year return rate event and I'm not sure I can really disconnect such a rare thing from a total winter.  That's not really fair.

If 88-89 is an the utmost asshole winter, I would argue 1994-1995 is a pube away - call it a 'taint winter

 

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was ok for SE MA, but pretty cruddy elsewhere. 2/25/99 really helped the anomalies in SE MA.

I'd agree it wasn't as terrible as years like '88-'89 or '11-'12....those were near all time ratters.

Yeah I was commenting from the mby perspective.   2/25 had promise but watching Todd Gross hit Boston hard while ACK flipped back to snow worried me.  Sure enough, we just missed the good stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think 1998-99 should be lumped into the big ratters.   It was sub par for sure but it had some good moments.

I January and March 1999, but it was a crap season for me. There are certainly worse seasons, but 41.9" is a solid 20" below average for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was ok for SE MA, but pretty cruddy elsewhere. 2/25/99 really helped the anomalies in SE MA.

I'd agree it wasn't as terrible as years like '88-'89 or '11-'12....those were near all time ratters.

Right....those are the dead-ratters....the '99 rat was still twitching a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I think it is very possible we see North Atlantic blocking the entire winter, and even if we don’t there is a good chance we get severe polar vortex intrusions to offset that, as the polar vortex is looking weak on the models.

I do  not think blocking sticks around. I will entertain the idea that it may redevelop in March, perhaps, but there will be an extensive break. That doesn't have to mean no snow during that period...especially up and in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This may sound weird...but it is idiosyncratic to just my particular brand of nerdiness... heh -

Of those two, the bold is the worse of them. 

11-12 was so bad, that it became fascinating and earned points back in the awe-factor.  I mean, sometimes shit gets so shitty you just have to step back and objectively marvel at how deep in it Nature is capable of jamming your head.   Really a fantastic achievement in the scalar sense of it.

Also, that Halloween in 2011 was something like a 500 year return rate event and I'm not sure I can really disconnect such a rare thing from a total winter.  That's not really fair.

If 88-89 is an the utmost asshole winter, I would argue 1994-1995 is a pube away - call it a 'taint winter

 

Feb '95 was a break or two away from being a really good month....as it was, I had one event of around a foot.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Feb '95 was a break or two away from being a really good month....as it was, I had one event of around a foot.

Yup ...was up at UML ... only event that saved that years street cred at all.   10".   It was ginormous by seasonal standard ..albeit totally pedestrian by climate - particularly since we started handing out twelvies like Pez candies

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ...was up at UML ... only thing that saved it.   10" was ginormous by seasonal standard ..albeit totally pedestrian by climate - particularly since we started handing out twelvies like Pez candies

If memory serves correct, we generated a bit of blocking, and there were some nice events that easily could have buried the coast, but instead favored the deep interior, regardless....kind of like Feb 2007. Chaos is often the deciding factor in the end...

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If memory serves correct, we generated a bit of blocking, and there were some nice events that easily could have buried the coast,but instead favored the deep interior, regardless. Chaos is often the deciding factor in the end...

Actually... we had a cold snap on the heels. 

The next day or day after... we had a high temp of 9 in gusty CAA... The night was still +3 above because the wind kept howling - I dunno, maybe blocking played into that.  But I don't recall much happening after that event/cold that followed, either.

The winter over all was a needling disappointment after that lofty 1993-1994 expectation platform.   Obviously we've portrayed these winters in a thousand different personal colors and canvases...It is well-known that previous year was frigid and had decent snow.  Actually broke the seasonal record at Logan...though it would only hold that trophy for 2 years.   It also had weird elevated warm layers.  We had one storm ( Will and I have discussed...) that was decent snow but almost all of which was OE underneath a weird moderate IP storm.  In fact, it really was an IP storm, ...at least synoptically. But the OE and secondary lower growth layer underneath kept up and gave good low ratio cotton balls that were probably getting meteoroid by big frozen IPs.. I actually stood in the drive way and saw some falling aggregates get fractured while chuting down.  It was a like .75" of sleet mixed with 20::1 snow.  Hard to do that. 

But it was a good year.  It was also coming off the 1992-1993 ...post Pinatubo ( maybe ...) change in the totality of the hemisphere, that made Dec and later in March seem at long last like they were more plausible going forward.  Either way, nice attitude reset, 1992-1993.  Then 1993-1994 ...   and boy! was the boner lubed for what?

1994-1995...    Blue balls!   That's what that winter was.  The great Blue Baller -

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually... we had a cold snap on the heels. 

The next day or day after... we had a high temp of 9 in gusty CAA... The night was still +3 above because the wind kept howling - I dunno, maybe blocking played into that.  But I don't recall much happening after that event/cold that followed, either.

The winter over all was a needling disappointment after that lofty 1993-1994 expectation platform.   Obviously we've portrayed these winters in a thousand different personal colors and canvases...It is well-known that previous year was frigid and had decent snow.  Actually broke the seasonal record at Logan...though it would only hold that trophy for 2 years.   It also had weird elevated warm layers.  We had one storm ( Will and I have discussed...) that was decent snow but almost all of which was OE underneath a weird moderate IP storm.  In fact, it was an IP storm, but the OE and secondary lower growth layer underneath had fluff low ration cotton balls getting meteoroid by big frozen IPs.. It was a like .75" of fleet mixed with 20::1 snow.  Hard to do that. 

But it was a good year.  It was also coming off the 1992-1993 ...post Pinatubo ( maybe ...) change in the totality of the hemisphere, that made Dec and later in March seem more plausible going forward.  Either way, nice attitude reset, 1992-1993.  Then 1993-1994 ...   and boy! was the boner lubed for what?

1994-1995...    Blue balls!   That's what that winter was.  The great Blue Baller -

I remember the 1994 EL Nino was being hyped that autumn. Coming off the heels of two big winters, a lot of mets were honking for a very stormy winter with the El Nino aiding. We can diplomatically say that seasonal forecasting even 25+ years later has big errors.....lol. What a let down.

Ironically, it was 1995-1996 (the weak La Nina) that actually generated some subtropical jet...esp 2nd half of that winter. Produced some good events in February...we didn't always get the best of them, but then again, we didn't need to with the massive totals already built up from Dec/Jan. We did do quite well in some of those March events though.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember the 1994 EL Nino was being hyped that autumn. Coming off the heels of two big winters, a lot of mets were honking for a very stormy winter with the El Nino aiding. We can diplomatically say that seasonal forecasting even 25+ years later has big errors.....lol. What a let down.

Ironically, it was 1995-1996 (the weak La Nina) that actually generated some subtropical jet...esp 2nd half of that winter. Produced some good events in February...we didn't always get the best of them, but then again, we didn't need to with the massive totals already built up from Dec/Jan. We did do quite well in some of those March events though.

I remember a couple of events even in early April '96.  That year just was interminable... I don't think the spring was particularly warm either. It's like the winter never ended ..it just got lost in the genetics of spring --> like a recessive trait. LOL   ...faded from blues to brown.

[tamarack]

94-95 was the first time I saw a foot of snow utterly disappear in a Maine January, thanks to the second mildest (daily mean) January day in the Farmington co-op's 129-year POR, though well behind the 1932 record.  Jan '95 saw temps go from 27° BN to 32° AN in 5 days.   2-storm winter, and the first was a major bust - even at first flakes near sunrise on Jan 2 the forecast was 1-3" and 2 hours later we were getting 3"/hour and finished with 12.

[dryslot]

I'm still scarred when i hear blocking mentioned.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember the 1994 EL Nino was being hyped that autumn. Coming off the heels of two big winters, a lot of mets were honking for a very stormy winter with the El Nino aiding. We can diplomatically say that seasonal forecasting even 25+ years later has big errors.....lol. What a let down.

Ironically, it was 1995-1996 (the weak La Nina) that actually generated some subtropical jet...esp 2nd half of that winter. Produced some good events in February...we didn't always get the best of them, but then again, we didn't need to with the massive totals already built up from Dec/Jan. We did do quite well in some of those March events though.

I wonder if that Indonesian convection that scooter keeps hinting at could induce somewhat of a STJ presence this season? I'm not saying 100" in Boston, but you know what I mean...

[ORH_wxman]

44 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm still scarred when i hear blocking mentioned.

Gotta shake the stigma. Most of your huge years have blocking. There's a few exceptions like 2007-2008.

 

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta shake the stigma. Most of your huge years have blocking. There's a few exceptions like 2007-2008.

 

After last winter, I don't know how much worse it could be unless we go snow less.

[uncle W]

1994-95 was a one storm winter for NYC...it also had the least amount of snowfall in NYC going into February...

NYC's dates for the least amount of snow...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/20/1973.....trace

1/29/1995.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...