Winter 2021-2022

[George001]

The gfs has a strong polar vortex throughout December wear as the Euro weakens it late December. The weakening of the polar vortex has been delayed a bit, but not denied in my opinion. As for the La Niña, the subsurface is starting to weaken but there is still significant negative anomalies just below the surface. These negative anomalies are rising to the surface, and should help strengthen the La Niña further. We are already at -1.0 on the weekly reading in the Enso 3.4 region, and with further cooling expected a moderate peak is very likely. A well coupled La Nina peaking at the -1.0 to -1.2 range isn’t exactly weak.

 

 

[George001]

It’s interesting how the strongest negative anomalies are moving east as they surface, which could be a really good sign for a more favorable structure (more east based, basin wide right now) for winter taking hold as the La Niña continues to strengthen in the near term. 

[leo2000]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s interesting how the strongest negative anomalies are moving east as they surface, which could be a really good sign for a more favorable structure (more east based, basin wide right now) for winter taking hold as the La Niña continues to strengthen in the near term. 

What are the implications for the Northeast US when we get a east based basin wide La Nina?.

[George001]

56 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

What are the implications for the Northeast US when we get a east based basin wide La Nina?.

This is a very simplified explanation, as I have a very basic level of understanding of this stuff. From what I understand, it means increased probabilities of Miller B nor’easters vs a more west based basin wide La Niña. For a more in depth explanation Ray discusses the forcing mechanism of the structural nuances on the Enso region in his blog post on the winter 2021-2022 forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I def. wouldn't run from a strengthening la nina that is becoming more east based....2010 is already one of the better ENSO analogs and it could become even more appropriate....along with 1955 and 1970.

[snowman19]

On 11/8/2021 at 10:41 PM, stadiumwave said:

Guys, this Nina is dying fast per latest sub-surface:

 

 

@stadiumwave @MJO812 It’s doing anything but dying, in fact, it’s about to undergo a huge period of strengthening by early December : 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@stadiumwave @MJO812 It’s doing anything but dying, in fact, it’s about to undergo a huge period of strengthening by early December : 

 

 

But it's also becoming east based...in which case strengthening helps the winter cause.

[CoastalWx]

That’s the strong 850 erly anomalies I posted over a week back. But not sure it’s going to impact winter immediately as the wheels are already in motion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s the strong 850 erly anomalies I posted over a week back. But not sure it’s going to impact winter immediately as the wheels are already in motion.

About a 3 month lag.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s the strong 850 erly anomalies I posted over a week back. But not sure it’s going to impact winter immediately as the wheels are already in motion.

 

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But it's also becoming east based...in which case strengthening helps the winter cause.

 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About a 3 month lag.

Wonder if this can help produce some convection closer to dateline later in winter. I wouldn’t mind something interfering with your typical Niña February baseline. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

Wonder if this can help produce some convection closer to dateline later in winter. I wouldn’t mind something interfering with your typical Niña February baseline. 

Would go along with my theme of a late season revival.

[SnoSki14]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But it's also becoming east based...in which case strengthening helps the winter cause.

He's like the anti-JB. He'll post anything to force a warm/snow-free winter narrative. 

But sure if you go warm/snow-free every winter you'll be right eventually and yes pretty much any winter these days will be AN temp wise...no big surprise there. 

[dmillz25]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About a 3 month lag.

Hopefully earlier lol but yeah that subsurface looks cold at the perfect place. Just wish it happened a month earlier but let’s see what happens 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Hopefully earlier lol but yeah that subsurface looks cold at the perfect place. Just wish it happened a month earlier but let’s see what happens 

We're not in bad shape....

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

He's like the anti-JB. He'll post anything to force a warm/snow-free winter narrative. 

But sure if you go warm/snow-free every winter you'll be right eventually and yes pretty much any winter these days will be AN temp wise...no big surprise there. 

No one is forcing anything you fool

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No one is forcing anything you fool

We all know you only post about warmth 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No one is forcing anything you fool

You know your stuff, but your posts are pretty one-sided lol

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No one is forcing anything you fool

See you during the next warm-up

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We all know you only post about warmth 

Lol!!!! We all know how you are…you quote and listen to Joe Bastardi, enough said. The same Joe Bastardi who said this La Niña was weakening and dead a week ago when it’s about to explode in strength come early December. He’s either A - a totally incompetent quack who hasn’t a clue wtf he’s talking about or B - completely delusional/mental. Take your pick

[EasternLI]

Just a nerdy little observation here. The QBO is every bit a temperature oscillation as much as a wind one. Research has shown that this is an important factor in the tropics. Specifically for tropical convection. The tropopause layer ~100mb in the tropics sees warmer temperatures in WQBO and cooler temperatures during EQBO. Generally. So cooler temperatures there can increase instability via increasing lapse rates due to warm ocean temperatures. Increasing convection. This is pretty cool. Check out the temperatures at 100mb this month. Focus on the area around Australia.

Anomalous convection lines up really well with the cooler temperatures during the same time period. 

It'll be interesting to see how things evolve. 

[George001]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Lol!!!! We all know how you are…you quote and listen to Joe Bastardi, enough said. The same Joe Bastardi who said this La Niña was weakening and dead a week ago when it’s about to explode in strength come early December. He’s either A - a totally incompetent quack who hasn’t a clue wtf he’s talking about or B - completely delusional/mental. Take your pick

I disagree with both of you. I agree with you that the La Niña will explode in strength come early December, but I disagree with you about the implications it will have on our winter in New England. While it is strengthening it is becoming more east based, which is good for us. As is typical with la ninas (especially one well coupled and of decent strength like this one), the northern branch will be more active. However, due to the structure of the La Niña from what I have read east based structure leads to a more favorable pacific pattern, with less troughing out west and a weaker pacific jet. If we can get North Atlantic blocking (There are signs of it coming in mid to late December into January), I would think it would buckle the flow. When combined with limited pacific jet influence that’s an amplified pattern with plenty of cold air in place. That’s a really damn good pattern for us in New England, east based mod-strong La Niña with North Atlantic blocking and limited pacific jet. It’s not going to be a true east based Nina, more east leaning basin wide as a Nina of this strength is going to expand into nino 4 as well. That’s still good though, the strong Nina= bad thing isn’t really true for us. In late Dec 2010, the official strength of the La Niña was 1.6 ONI, the MEI was below -2, and the SOI was raging positive with an extremely negative PDO. By all accounts, it was a strong La Niña that was well coupled with the atmosphere and a major pattern driver. I also got buried by 18+ inches of snow. In Jan 2011, 2 major blizzards in my area, they occurred while the La Niña was strong and driving the pattern. We had the same blocking pattern the year prior, and New England got skunked while the Mid Atlantic got buried in a strong west based El Niño pattern. 
 

Based on what I have seen, I am making no changes to my winter forecast. Mod-strong La Niña, 70-85 inches of snow in the Boston area. Yes early Dec is showing signs that it will be warm. There is still 3 and a half months of winter left after that, and the European guidance is saying the PV weakening is delayed but not denied. Strengthening of the La Niña is no reason to give up on winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

I disagree with both of you. I agree with you that the La Niña will explode in strength come early December, but I disagree with you about the implications it will have on our winter in New England. While it is strengthening it is becoming more east based, which is good for us. As is typical with la ninas (especially one well coupled and of decent strength like this one), the northern branch will be more active. However, due to the structure of the La Niña from what I have read east based structure leads to a more favorable pacific pattern, with less troughing out west and a weaker pacific jet. If we can get North Atlantic blocking (There are signs of it coming in mid to late December into January), I would think it would buckle the flow. When combined with limited pacific jet influence that’s an amplified pattern with plenty of cold air in place. That’s a really damn good pattern for us in New England, east based mod-strong La Niña with North Atlantic blocking and limited pacific jet. It’s not going to be a true east based Nina, more east leaning basin wide as a Nina of this strength is going to expand into nino 4 as well. That’s still good though, the strong Nina= bad thing isn’t really true for us. In late Dec 2010, the official strength of the La Niña was 1.6 ONI, the MEI was below -2, and the SOI was raging positive with an extremely negative PDO. By all accounts, it was a strong La Niña that was well coupled with the atmosphere and a major pattern driver. I also got buried by 18+ inches of snow. In Jan 2011, 2 major blizzards in my area, they occurred while the La Niña was strong and driving the pattern. We had the same blocking pattern the year prior, and New England got skunked while the Mid Atlantic got buried in a strong west based El Niño pattern. 
 

Based on what I have seen, I am making no changes to my winter forecast. Mod-strong La Niña, 70-85 inches of snow in the Boston area. Yes early Dec is showing signs that it will be warm. There is still 3 and a half months of winter left after that, and the European guidance is saying the PV weakening is delayed but not denied. Strengthening of the La Niña is no reason to give up on winter.

There is no way this la nina peaks with a strong ONI.

Forget that.

[uncle W]

of the 24 official la nina winters since 1954-55 only 1970-71, 2005-06, 2008-09 had a stronger DJF oni than the NDJ oni...some years peaked in NDJ and then faded...some years peaked before NDJ and was fading already...last year's NDJ oni was -1.2 and weakening...it peaked at -1.3 in the OND period...

[stadiumwave]

On 11/13/2021 at 5:02 PM, snowman19 said:

@stadiumwave @MJO812 It’s doing anything but dying, in fact, it’s about to undergo a huge period of strengthening by early December : 

 

 

 

The coldest waters down in subsurface are in the process of surfacing but yes the Nina is dying. After the coolest waters surface in region 3 we will warm after that. Both are correct. 

Just look at the subsurface progression. Subsurface is warming. Coolest waters are moving to surface. Then...its over. Anyone looking at that Subsurface progression & thinking this Nina is getting stronger is smoking crack....bad....and in total denial.

[stadiumwave]

On 11/13/2021 at 6:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But it's also becoming east based...in which case strengthening helps the winter cause.

 

Very much so

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

The coldest waters down in subsurface are in the process of surfacing but yes the Nina is dying. After the coolest waters surface in region 3 we will warm after that. Both are correct. 

Just look at the subsurface progression. Subsurface is warming. Coolest waters are moving to surface. Then...its over. Anyone looking at that Subsurface progression & thinking this Nina is getting stronger is smoking crack....bad....and in total denial.

The metric by which all ENSO events are measured by are the actual SSTs, which are about to drop in the next few weeks and in a big way. It’s peaking, yes and it’s done in the subsurface. However, declaring it “dead” as JB did is asinine. Dead Nina’s don’t continue to have SST drops. When the surface starts warming, then it’s dead 

[bristolri_wx]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The metric by which all ENSO events are measured by are the actual SSTs, which are about to drop in the next few weeks and in a big way. It’s peaking, yes and it’s done in the subsurface. However, declaring it “dead” as JB did is asinine. Dead Nina’s don’t continue to have SST drops. When the surface starts warming, then it’s dead 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The metric by which all ENSO events are measured by are the actual SSTs, which are about to drop in the next few weeks and in a big way. It’s peaking, yes and it’s done in the subsurface. However, declaring it “dead” as JB did is asinine. Dead Nina’s don’t continue to have SST drops. When the surface starts warming, then it’s dead 

One final round of strengthening does not bother me in the slightest. I would be more concerned if it were becoming a modoki and remaining the same intensity. A marked drop that is relegated to the eastern zones is a recipe for a relatively fruitful la nina season for east coast winter enthusiasts.

[stadiumwave]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The metric by which all ENSO events are measured by are the actual SSTs, which are about to drop in the next few weeks and in a big way. It’s peaking, yes and it’s done in the subsurface. However, declaring it “dead” as JB did is asinine. Dead Nina’s don’t continue to have SST drops. When the surface starts warming, then it’s dead 

 

Well JB is JB...lol. I don't follow much. Uses too much hyperbolic language for me which will drive a literal person insane. 

The remnants of its life (coldest subsurface waters) is surfacing & the supply is empty after that. 

[stadiumwave]

To demonstrate what a worthless waste of time it is to post weeklies past 15 days:

 

New NOV 30

 

 

Old NOV 30