Winter 2021-2022

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I only got 12 inches that winter lol

I understand that, but you just missed much better snows....most of the other composites would have you focusing on spring training.

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that, but you just missed much better snows....most of the other composites would have you focusing on spring training.

Yeah the gradient was a bit north of us

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not.feeling.it.

[WinterWolf]

6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not.feeling.it.

That’s good.   Many times when things are looking good from this distance, they don’t pan out. We’ll have our Chances, we always do here in SNE.  Normal snowfall is just fine for these parts.  

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s good.   Many times when things are looking good from this distance, they don’t pan out. We’ll have our Chances, we always do here in SNE.  Normal snowfall is just fine for these parts.  

Do we?

[Damage In Tolland]

9 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not.feeling.it.

High Times?

[George001]

I don’t get it things look really good with the La Niña and expected weak polar vortex+ expected North Atlantic blocking. This winter should at least be better than last, hopefully a lot better.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t get it things look really good with the La Niña and expected weak polar vortex+ expected North Atlantic blocking. This winter should at least be better than last, hopefully a lot better.

I think La Niña can suck hard so using that alone is fallacious.  Who says PV is expected weak and where’s the sign of North Atlantic blocking?  It may be a decent winter but I’d be careful about expectations.  Without nao La Niña winters tend to be sub par.  We have exceptions but If your threshold is >2 blizzards per winter I think you’ll be disappointed.   Let’s see where the pattern goes in a month.

[CoastalWx]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think La Niña can suck hard so using that alone is fallacious.  Who says PV is expected weak and where’s the sign of North Atlantic blocking?  It may be a decent winter but I’d be careful about expectations.  Without nao La Niña winters tend to be sub par.  We have exceptions but If your threshold is >2 blizzards per winter I think you’ll be disappointed.   Let’s see where the pattern goes in a month.

Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one.

Recency bias.

[Modfan2]

See if the old farmers take is right, but hearing from quite a few people finding bees/hornets nests high off the ground which per folklore would point to a snowy weather winter 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one.

He’s biased on the side of monster blizzards…take all with a grain of salt.  Old Farmers Almanac, CFS-V2 and everything else at this stage I’d also take with a grain of salt.
 

A month from now like Jerry said, let’s see what things look like?  I’m not excited nor fearful ….things change quick in both directions many times.  

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one.

The same conditions that have led to very warm Winters also lead to blizzards. 

Well above normal water temps, AN moisture in the air. All it takes is a favorable 1-2 week interval and boom. 

So I see plenty more blizzards in the future. Eventually the warming will be too much and we'll end up with 34-36F rainstorms but not yet. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The same conditions that have led to very warm Winters also lead to blizzards. 

Well above normal water temps, AN moisture in the air. All it takes is a favorable 1-2 week interval and boom. 

So I see plenty more blizzards in the future. Eventually the warming will be too much and we'll end up with 34-36F rainstorms but not yet. 

You need a pattern to support it though. Nina's generally are not conducive to blizzards, but that can change if we do have blocking.

[MJO812]

Winter starts next month ?

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The same conditions that have led to very warm Winters also lead to blizzards. 

Well above normal water temps, AN moisture in the air. All it takes is a favorable 1-2 week interval and boom. 

So I see plenty more blizzards in the future. Eventually the warming will be too much and we'll end up with 34-36F rainstorms but not yet. 

You’ll be dead before that ever happens, and so will I. I wouldn’t be too concerned. 

[MJO812]

Hopefully the blocking stays 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

See if the old farmers take is right, but hearing from quite a few people finding bees/hornets nests high off the ground which per folklore would point to a snowy weather winter 

Don't forgot tons of acorns, caterpillars and fat squirrels.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter starts next month ?

Good morning, Anthony. In the great NNE it’s a strong probability. In our area it may be a fantasy. As always …..

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning, Anthony. In the great NNE it’s a strong probability. In our area it may be a fantasy. As always …..

Good  winter can a wait until December 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

See if the old farmers take is right, but hearing from quite a few people finding bees/hornets nests high off the ground which per folklore would point to a snowy weather winter 

My Fort Kent experience says that's bogus.  The nests I saw in summer 1982 were all 8-12" off the ground, and the following January had a thaw that left grass sticking up thru an inch of armorplate.  Summer 1983 nests were low enough to be raided by skunks, and winter 83-84 I had to add an extension to my 61" snow stake.

Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one.

I've had only 6 events meeting blizzard criteria in the 36 years since moving from Fort Kent.  Probably 10-12 in my 9.7 winters up there, half of which were cyclonic NW gales playing with new snow.

[George001]

12 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think La Niña can suck hard so using that alone is fallacious.  Who says PV is expected weak and where’s the sign of North Atlantic blocking?  It may be a decent winter but I’d be careful about expectations.  Without nao La Niña winters tend to be sub par.  We have exceptions but If your threshold is >2 blizzards per winter I think you’ll be disappointed.   Let’s see where the pattern goes in a month.

the models are saying the polar vortex is expected to be weak to start the year. Thats a great sign, and should lead to severe north atlantic blocking. I have read that a weak polar vortex has a strong correlation to blocking from 2 weeks out to like 8 weeks out, so that would result in an early window from early December to mid Jan. 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

My Fort Kent experience says that's bogus.  The nests I saw in summer 1982 were all 8-12" off the ground, and the following January had a thaw that left grass sticking up thru an inch of armorplate.  Summer 1983 nests were low enough to be raided by skunks, and winter 83-84 I had to add an extension to my 61" snow stake.

Yeah not sure why he thinks blizzards are a norm. You can go years without one.

I've had only 6 events meeting blizzard criteria in the 36 years since moving from Fort Kent.  Probably 10-12 in my 9.7 winters up there, half of which were cyclonic NW gales playing with new snow.

The question is what actually determines how high they build their nest? 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

the models are saying the polar vortex is expected to be weak to start the year. Thats a great sign, and should lead to severe north atlantic blocking. I have read that a weak polar vortex has a strong correlation to blocking from 2 weeks out to like 8 weeks out, so that would result in an early window from early December to mid Jan. 

Which models?   Some say an early SSW but that’s tenuous.   And severe North Atlantic blocking may give you bouts of maritime puke while NYC southward cashes in.   You want bouts of blocking that come and go for the best snows.

[snowman19]

49 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Which models?   Some say an early SSW but that’s tenuous.   And severe North Atlantic blocking may give you bouts of maritime puke while NYC southward cashes in.   You want bouts of blocking that come and go for the best snows.

There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month: 

 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month: 

 

There are mixed signals by people. Some think it will be a cold November and some think it will be warm .

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

The question is what actually determines how high they build their nest? 

I guess it depends on where the overwintered queens find suitable conditions, and they're not telling us.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

There are mixed signals by people. Some think it will be a cold November and some think it will be warm .

As is always the case.  
 

Gonna go out on a limb here and say, it’ll start out warmer in the beginning of November, and get cooler Towards the end of November.  I think that’s in the cards. Lol.   

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month: 

 

Shit that’s not good. If the polar vortex recovers, it’s possible that the Boston area ends up with yet another garbage winter with less than 40 inches of snow the entire winter. That’s awful, hopefully the polar vortex doesn’t recover at all.

 

edit- just watched the animation on that particular model and not only does the polar vortex drastically increase in strength, but it moves over the North Pole. If that happens 2011-2012 becomes a good analog, which means cancelling winter is in the cards. I’m not ready to give up yet, but seeing that it makes sense why many people here are being cautious about forecasting a big winter.

[George001]

Maybe the truth will be somewhere in the middle, the earlier runs were saying the polar vortex would be extremely weak and not recover at all, now they are saying that while it will be weak, it will start to recover and drastically increase in strength. A middle ground solution might still be good for us, something like the polar vortex recovering some, but moving to eastern Canada instead of the North Pole.