40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2021 Author Share Posted September 26, 2021 -PDO doesn't make la nina stronger, but it's not the best signal for winter in the east...means -PNA is more favored and makes polar fields more important. It's not a deal breaker, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2021 Author Share Posted September 26, 2021 Most la nina are negative PDO....especially stronger ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not really IMO maybe @CoastalWx and @40/70 Benchmarkcan chime in, but the 1960’s-1970’s saw an extremely negative PDO cycle and some of the deepest -NAO/-AO periods on record Yeah the 60s and 70s had -PDOs and solid winters. I don’t really look at the index much to be honest. You’ll sometimes see the PDO mimic the ENSO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, 512high said: Wasn't 1988-89 a bad winter in regards to no or low snowfall for New England? That winter and the one that followed were sucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: -PDO doesn't make la nina stronger, but it's not the best signal for winter in the east...means -PNA is more favored and makes polar fields more important. It's not a deal breaker, though. This is the study I am referring to...when they are both in phase the effect of La Nina is more robust. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep06651 Yeah I agree with -PDO correlating with an increased probability of -PNA but I'm talking more in regards to ENSO. Idk it's really not an important teleconnection when compared to everything else especially due to it's long periodicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I’ll take a -PNA/-NAO winter any year. Screams interior northeast winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 That combo is good all around. I’ll take a -PNA/-NAO anytime. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I’ll take a -PNA/-NAO winter any year. Screams interior northeast winter You'd want a +PNA and -NAO. +PNA would give you troughing over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: You'd want a +PNA and -NAO. +PNA would give you troughing over the Northeast. How am I confused lol. That’s a good combo here. We’ve had snowy winters with that combo. It’s not a Miller B blockbuster look, but active with the -PNA and the blocking helps prevent lows shooting up our fanny’s. Now if the NAO is positive, yeah.....not good usually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How am I confused lol. That’s a good combo here. We’ve had snowy winters with that combo. It’s not a Miller B blockbuster look, but active with the -PNA and the blocking helps prevent lows shooting up our fanny’s. Now if the NAO is positive, yeah.....not good usually. I'm not doubting you because you are King of the Weenies but you generally get higher heights over the NE & somewhat of a block there with warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 40 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: This is the study I am referring to...when they are both in phase the effect of La Nina is more robust. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep06651 Yeah I agree with -PDO correlating with an increased probability of -PNA but I'm talking more in regards to ENSO. Idk it's really not an important teleconnection when compared to everything else especially due to it's long periodicity. Stronger la nina correlates to a -PDO, not the other way around....huge Aleutian ridge forces a downstream western US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Temps could still be cold enough for snow obviously but I'm talking pattern wise a +PNA would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: You'd want a +PNA and -NAO. +PNA would give you troughing over the Northeast. We are far enough north that lining up the slot machines with all $ doesn't always end well...the mid atl needs that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stronger la nina correlates to a -PDO, not the other way around....huge Aleutian ridge forces a downstream western US trough. Ok yeah I had it backwards then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Temps could still be cold enough for snow obviously but I'm talking pattern wise a +PNA would be better. Not necessarily...on paper, 2010 was perfect...but those patterns lead more room for suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said: Ok yeah I had it backwards then. The weaker la nina is, the more chances for other variables to intervene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: don't start this crap! lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I'm not doubting you because you are King of the Weenies but you generally get higher heights over the NE & somewhat of a block there with warmer temps. . We had that combo a lot in the 60s. Those were solid winters. I mean yeah + PNA and -NAO is good, but I’d take that combo of -PNA and -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Looking at 500mb composites over the past 10 years we've done better with a +PNA/-NAO setup. A lot of it isn't textbook but there are a lot of years with near normal to below normal heights. There's obviously other factors/variables that matter but standalone that's what I'm finding at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 40 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Looking at 500mb composites over the past 10 years we've done better with a +PNA/-NAO setup. A lot of it isn't textbook but there are a lot of years with near normal to below normal heights. There's obviously other factors/variables that matter but standalone that's what I'm finding at least. How about 14-15. Raging +NAO but +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: How about 14-15. Raging +NAO but +PNA. Very negative EPO, too...that was all pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Very negative EPO, too...that was all pacific. How about 14-15. Raging +NAO but +PNA. Yeah like Ray said that was driven mainly be by persistent -EPO. Didn’t need a -NAO that winter lol. Also before I moved here Dallas got an ice storm & snow out of it too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said: Yeah like Ray said that was driven mainly be by persistent -EPO. Didn’t need a -NAO that winter lol. Also before I moved here Dallas got an ice storm & snow out of it too. Try like late 1/25/15 to about 3/15/15. You’ll see that ridge out west in an even better position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 Here is the source that I cited for those looking for more information on la nina structure. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2018.1386538 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I'm the new COOP observer for PWM, so you can lock-in futility for me for this season... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, tunafish said: I'm the new COOP observer for PWM, so you lock-in futility for me for this season... Same site, I presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Just now, tamarack said: Same site, I presume. I'm not sure where the old observer was located, but this'll be a new site. Old COOP person retired, and GYX reached out to me based on my CoCoRAHS data and location. I'm within 2-3mi from the jetport, depending on where at the jetport you are, so a good enough proxy to call it official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, tunafish said: I'm not sure where the old observer was located, but this'll be a new site. Old COOP person retired, and GYX reached out to me based on my CoCoRAHS data and location. I'm within 2-3mi from the jetport, depending on where at the jetport you are, so a good enough proxy to call it official. I'd thought that the co-op was at the old NWS office site at the Jetport. Or are there 2 co-op sites at PWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 minute ago, tamarack said: I'd thought that the co-op was at the old NWS office site at the Jetport. Or are there 2 co-op sites at PWM? Hmmm.. not too sure about that. Maybe @OceanStWxcan clarify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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