wdrag Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 First (00z/27) GEFS sign of something significant in the Atlantic Basin. Just two members with a closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. It's a start. Might be a tad early? but it's better than nothing - if you're looking for TC's in the Atlantic. The WAR via GEFS modeling is westward building beginning the middle of next week and more consistently, Aug 10 and beyond. Don't know for sure. Your's to flesh out via tropical signals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Apropos to William Gray's famous bell that he would ring on Aug 20 marking the rapid uptick in climatological activity... here is a look at how common hurricanes are in the MDR in the first two-thirds of Aug. The short answer - they are surprisingly uncommon and not a good indicator of seasonal activity! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 The long rage GEFS continues to show activity signals the second week of August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 90L is actually looking a little better this morning inland and actually has a little better model support as it moves back offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Understood regarding 8/10 uptick too soon... so the following will probably mean the GEFS is outlier and not reliable. fwiw... 12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 ne USA and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin, as briefly discussed in early MJO/K Wave posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 ... whether we as humans are still around to witness it. Well, we could make it until 2068 but there's really strong indications that we have less than a dozen years left.... but I suspect the whatever years that remain will have lots of destruction. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 57 minutes ago, mempho said: Well, we could make it until 2068 but there's really strong indications that we have less than a dozen years left.... but I suspect the whatever years that remain will have lots of destruction. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Can you share some of those sources? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 First signs of a signal coming from euro... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 45 minutes ago, cptcatz said: First signs of a signal coming from euro... Not that I am chomping at the bit, but I am chomping at the bit. Yea I know, so inappropriate, so irresponsible, so reckless and careless, but I can't help it. I am storm sick. Still think a very late season with few names, but strong ones that do get there. I have outdoor tickets for Dead & Company and Rolling Stones in Tampa in October which normally would be a cool quiet weather time for outdoor shows. Hoping no Tropical systems on those dates...really looking forward to both shows. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: First signs of a signal coming from euro... Yup the fun is about to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Yup the fun is about to start. This is bad. Waters are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is bad. Waters are warm. So that is the recent change, right? But are the surface temps cooler than normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Just one of the ingredients for a possible active hurricane season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 GFS coming in with the exact same thinking as euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Will we see Fred in August? Will we see Teresa at all? Teresa is my mother-in-law's name. Maybe around Thanksgiving if things really pick up. LOL In the mean time, nice on Clearwater Beach for the next few weeks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just for fun, how far do you think we'll get in August? I say Ida (EYE-duh) is in September and being an "I (eye)" storm will be the one to watch this season. So for me, Henri will be the last August storm and I am not real confident we'll get that in the next month. I may be very wrong of course. I don't even know if I want to watch a "Hurricane Sam", unless it hits Wyoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Haven’t looked in a while, but peak season is right around the corner. Get your sleep now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnduzzee Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Talk to me on your thoughts on a tropical storm hitting the Yucatan Peninsula in the next 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, johnduzzee said: Talk to me on your thoughts on a tropical storm hitting the Yucatan Peninsula in the next 3 weeks. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 10% of 0Z GFS ensemble perturbations look interesting in the Gulf in 12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Haven’t looked in a while, but peak season is right around the corner. Get your sleep now. OK, I'll try. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, Prospero said: OK, I'll try. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.... Considering I literally can’t sleep more than a few hours a night when the basin is hot, I’m trying to rest up as much as possible. Work does not help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 18z GFS is the most bullish yet with a long tracking (albeit weak) MDR storm heading towards Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 I dont know. I think my numbers were way too high. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: I dont know. I think my numbers were way too high. It's called July. Edit: Make that July with a suppressive MJO for the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 Signal is getting better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 Every year I watch and watch. Even slow years. I have my doubts about this year and have since Spring. Watching, always. Low numbers, late season, and intense when it does happen. Hopefully all off the coasts fun to watch with perfect eyes and not too much stress on we who live on the coasts. Of course, that is NOT based on anything scientific at all. So possibly very wrong indeed. I'm going back to sleep as I may need it later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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