SnoSki14 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Weathersteve said: Yes I agree that certain things should not be named but that doesn't mean it's part of some agenda. A lot of weak systems last year did deserve to be named but people brought up that same political talking point. Also clearly the NHC isn't playing up to people's conspiracies which is why that east of Florida low never got any recognition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaser Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: So whats the reasoning for naming some of the things that shouldn't be? And nhc does it all the time maybe not with this ul off Florida but other things in the north Atlantic over water that wouldn't be sustainable for tropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Weathersteve said: I'm surprised there wasn't an X on it. This is what I was talking about btw. This is the type of stuff NHC decideds to name nowadays. How about that yellow X out in the middle of no where too? Those yellow x are areas of interest. Meaning areas to watch. Not naming everyone that appears throughout the tropical season. Above is a cold core upper low. Nothing tropical... The main low is up at 30-40k feet. With really no "real" mid level( 15-30k feet) or surface based reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaser Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Flweather I'm arguing they shouldn't be x'ing those upper lows. But they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaser Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 I'll point out when they do it. They just did it a few days back with that frontal wave out in the middle of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 1) Nowhere will you ever find data to support classification or naming of an ULL. The sarcasm here is noted, but out of bounds. As far as areas of interest, there are plenty of examples of mid-level systems and cold core upper troughs transitioning to warm core systems. But that is for another discussion.2) Satellite technology and ever increasing shipping traffic now enable us to recognize and discern warm core and assymetric warm core cyclones that warrant more subtropical classifications than in years past. There is no agenda here except to supercede and fulfill a critical obligation by the TAFB division of the National OCEANIC and Atmospheric Agency. That role is to protect life and property for maritime shipping interests, not just the inhabitants of coastlines. If a system meets the criteria, it gets classified. This is a scientific agency, there are rules, but technology and subsequently guidlines evolve over time.3) Going to nip this in the bud right here. Any more talk of an agency misleading or lying to fit a political agenda, much less climate change, will be removed. This is not the thread for such discussion. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Windspeed said: 1) Nowhere will you ever find data to support classification or naming of an ULL. The sarcasm here is noted, but out of bounds. As far as areas of interest, there are plenty of examples of mid-level systems and cold core upper troughs transitioning to warm core systems. But that is for another discussion. 2) Satellite technology and ever increasing shipping traffic now enable us to recognize and discern warm core and assymetric warm core cyclones that warrant more subtropical classifications than in years past. There is no agenda here except to supercede and fulfill a critical obligation by the TAFB division of the National OCEANIC and Atmospheric Agency. That role is to protect life and property for maritime shipping interests, not just the inhabitants of coastlines. If a system meets the criteria, it gets classified. This is a scientific agency, there are rules, but technology and subsequently guidlines evolve over time. 3) Going to nip this in the bud right here. Any more talk of an agency misleading or lying to fit a political agenda, much less climate change, will be removed. This is not the thread for such discussion. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Weathersteve said: Flweather I'm arguing they shouldn't be x'ing those upper lows. But they do. Who cares about what they're x'ing? All it means is that they're keeping an eye on it and no one even knows except for the hardcore weather nerds who keep track of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 6 hours ago, Weathersteve said: Flweather I'm arguing they shouldn't be x'ing those upper lows. But they do. 6 hours ago, Weathersteve said: I'll point out when they do it. They just did it a few days back with that frontal wave out in the middle of nowhere. There are times a ULL can transition. But you got to have a very stagnant and blocky UL flow over a warm tropical environment. Just like a derecho... I can remember at least one time a derecho dropping from MW to TX,LA to the GOM. It got left behind from the main UL flow and days, days later turning into a sloppy lop sided TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 2 hours ago, FLweather said: There are times a ULL can transition. But you got to have a very stagnant and blocky UL flow over a warm tropical environment. Just like a derecho... I can remember at least one time a derecho dropping from MW to TX,LA to the GOM. It got left behind from the main UL flow and days, days later turning into a sloppy lop sided TS. Just named a baby thunderstorm here over Gulfport FL. Not much, barely rained with some nice gentle thunder, but worthy of a name. Cooled down the temps by 10 to 15 degrees which is very nice this time of year. "071721GulfportFL1800" I think I'll retire that name, it earned it... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 21, 2021 Author Share Posted July 21, 2021 Really nice La Nina coming forth.. I would like to see this strengthen a bit to predict some good SE and/or FL Hurricane hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Hmm, I didn't think to be looking here for future development... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 3 hours ago, Prospero said: Hmm, I didn't think to be looking here for future development... Doesn't look like anything will come of this, and even if it does it will probably mean a rainy day for Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 W Pacific TC activity has a significant suppressive influence on favorability for TC activity in the Carib and W. Atlantic, but less influence in the eastern Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 JMA scenario of rising cell in Western Pacific continuing to dominate into mid-Aug is unlikely to verify, in my view. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 I would watch for homegrown development (in GOM or off the coast of eastern US) through the first third of Aug, with limited chance of anything forming in the MDR. Then I would expect MDR activity to begin picking up by around the third week of Aug. However, either type of development would pose higher than usual landfall risks by mid to late Aug based on the projected pattern (similar to the pattern from late Jun to first week of Jul that led to the all-time record heat in the Pacific NW/W. Canada as well as very hot conditions in the ne US). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Interesting correlation between anomalously warm waters in the western Atlantic (off east coast of the US) early in the hurricane season and East coast landfalls. There also may be a correlation with wet Julys in the coastal plain of the northeast US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Great post Looks like things will heat up quickly in regards to the tropics in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 90L has been designated and it's looking pretty juicy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 23, 2021 Author Share Posted July 23, 2021 -3 now in the subsurface. Developing/becoming more negative ENSO coming for Hurricane season: 2020, 2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2005,2001 30-15-19-19-15-28-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) Tweeted: 12Z ICON CONTINUES TO DVLP A 2ND'ARY LOW TAIL END OF THE TROUGH JUST INSIDE 6 DAYS ... 1RUN https://t.co/VRG3tvtLTp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Looks like a pretty solid structure, better than TD's and TS's I've seen. Definitely a nowcasting situation since this is way ahead of any of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Looks like a pretty solid structure, better than TD's and TS's I've seen. Definitely a nowcasting situation since this is way ahead of any of the models.Convection is waning where the more vigorous MLC was located earlier. That may delay progress a bit more in line with modeling. We'll see where it's at during the diurnal maximum tonight. Convection may redevelop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 Where 90L disappears for good, per GFS. The red circle on the 48 hour PW/850 mb wind image is where the 850 vort forecast shows the remnant vorticity. Wrapping in some very dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 Something to keep an eye on for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 Seen worse looking systems this year with actual names... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 24, 2021 Author Share Posted July 24, 2021 -4 on here would be a really big deal for an active season (time sensitive) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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