cptcatz Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 This morning's HWRF develops 95L into a tiny cat 2 with the next wave hot on its heels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 So much for Danny. Guess we'll watch this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Damn I bet Haiti just can't wait! /s. They never seem to catch a break. Puerto Rico must not be too thrilled with having to possibly deal with this either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreekWeatherGod95 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 12 hours ago, cptcatz said: This morning's HWRF develops 95L into a tiny cat 2 with the next wave hot on its heels... Looks like Mother Nature wants to go fast and furious this hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 GFS is back to showing something in the Gulf a week or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Prospero said: GFS is back to showing something in the Gulf a week or so out. The basin is active. Both 95L and 97L have a chance to develop, though I think 97L might have the better long range odds at this point. The steering pattern would suggest at least at this point some type of close approach to the US by one or both waves, but obviously a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Active times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Ridge placement is such that if 97L develops, it's going to be a Caribbean runner. Typically with a pronounced surface and 590s DM ridge, you get strong low level easterlies in the Caribbean. Climatologically speaking, we still have westerlies screaming over top creating strong shear for anything that might develop, aka the Caribbean graveyard this time of year. But with a potential CCKW in place, increased instability and potential upper level easterlies may coincide through the Caribbean as well. Upper ridge placement could pull off a surprise here. Not to get too far ahead (TCG is still not climatologically favored), but similar rare occurrences and synoptic favoribility have happened. The last anomalous July was 2005. We got Dennis and Emily that year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 GFS is locked, loaded, and ready to go on 97L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: GFS is locked, loaded, and ready to go on 97L HWRF too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Euro meanwhile, is nowhere near the GFS depiction. Model battle underway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Models are in pretty good agreement that we'll have a tropical storm within 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 ^ Of course, the Euro may be about to miss on an early TCG here. It's not perfect and does strike out occasionally. There is clearly good low level convergence now occurring within the southern envelope of the wave axis and monsoonal trough. The northern envelope of the wave appears to be folding and breaking away from the ITCZ, which is dragging behind 95L to the WNW of 97L. In short, we have a decent cyclonic spin to this system already; whether it presently has a closed low level vortex, that may not be far off with convective bursting near a hypothetical center tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 A modest TS over Tampa Bay during the 4th of July week would disappoint a lot of people around here, but I'd be tickled pink to watch some waves break over a seawall and watch the wind blow our palm trees around during some bands of driving rain. Yea, I know, sick. But that would be my ideal 4th of July week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 With this kind of 500mb look is a GOM threat favored? With a lifting trough and a building high I feel like getting anything up the east coast would be hard. I could be completely wrong tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Two GFS runs 97L running along Cuba has limited its strength as it then heads towards the Panhandle, but a small difference in verbatim track of the 2 runs Cuba doesn't weaken it or it it a bigger system in the Gulf. 40/60 orange now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 At this point, I think it’s less of a question whether 97L develops, it’s whether it can survive the graveyard. This’ll be another TC genesis miss by the Euro and ensembles at short range IMO. 97L still needs more organized convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 NHC has 95L at 10 percent... 97L at cherry for Day 5 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Those waves are pumping off Africa pretty impressively for July 2nd. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Sounds like we are done for a while 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Wow, the latest JMA weeklies are going full throttle in the Atlantic in late July! = anomalous upward motion Looks like it's going to be a long hurricane season Quote from Ben Noll 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 So either we'll get slammed, or wait twiddling our thumbs with nothing. I wonder what will become?? I would prefer thumb twiddling while watching storms try to become something, kind of like Elsa. Yet that does get tiresome. Better than scanning the News channels for anything interesting though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 11 hours ago, Prospero said: So either we'll get slammed, or wait twiddling our thumbs with nothing. I wonder what will become?? I would prefer thumb twiddling while watching storms try to become something, kind of like Elsa. Yet that does get tiresome. Better than scanning the News channels for anything interesting though. It’s been a weird summer here in S E FL; not really that warm, not a lot in the way of afternoon storms. I think ocean temps are cool for this time of year in the low 80’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaser Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 Looks to me like we have a cold mdr this year with below average activity. Not seeing why everyone's forecasting an above avg season. Maybe they are accounting for the garbage the nhc decideds to name nowadays. Don't think I've ever seen a hurricane as bad looking as elsa. I mean the aircraft recon even showed this was not a hurricane, yet noaa decided to throw away data and call it what they want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Weathersteve said: Looks to me like we have a cold mdr this year with below average activity. Not seeing why everyone's forecasting an above avg season. Maybe they are accounting for the garbage the nhc decideds to name nowadays. Don't think I've ever seen a hurricane as bad looking as elsa. I mean the aircraft recon even showed this was not a hurricane, yet noaa decided to throw away data and call it what they want. Who cares what the aircraft recon showed? That's not the best way to classify a storm. There were surface observations that showed that the storm was indeed a hurricane. You can't argue with actual surface observations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaser Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 A few gusts at hurricane force doesn't qualify in my book as sustained at 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weathersteve said: A few gusts at hurricane force doesn't qualify in my book as sustained at 75. Well good thing you don't make the call on these things. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaser Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 Okay I see what the data shows and you are correct. But satellite presentation was not there for this storm at all and 996mb for a hurricane really? I don't know if hurricane classification has changed but at cat 1 30 yrs ago is very different from a cat 1 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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